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In our “Picturing Turkey” product we present our Nowcast Model, which aims to estimate where Turkey stands in terms of economic activity by using 22 indicators. We bring those together in three charts, one showing the GDP growth momentum and the other two showing the total consumption and investment growths.
DEPOSITS: Total non-bank FX deposits in the Turkish banking system increased by US$2.8bn during the week on May 10, after having dropped in each of the past four weeks by a cumulative US$3.0bn. As such, non-bank FX deposits dropped by US$0.2bn since 29-Mar but increased by US$22.1bn year-to-date.
We observe some further increases in inflation expectations over almost all time horizons, probably as a result of recent TL depreciation. On the other hand, growth forecasts have been further cut, in tandem with C/A deficit estimates
Unadjusted y/y loan growth increased from 12.8% to 13.3% as of May 10, while the FX adjusted y/y loan growth decreased from -0.3% to -0.5%.
Retail sales volume index decreased by 5.1% y/y in March in unadjusted terms, while the calendar adjusted figures contracted by a more limited but still relatively deep 3.8% y/y. As a result, we estimate that unadjusted retail sales have contracted by 5.5% y/y in 1Q19, compared to the 7.3% drop in 4Q18.
Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 13.6% in February, from 13.3% in January. Unemployment rate has been continuously increasing since March as a result of a slowdown in economic activity, after having improved materially throughout 2017 with the help of Government’s huge employment campaign and recovery in economy & tourism.
According to Turkstat, industrial production (IP-NSA) registered a 4.7% y/y contraction in March while the calendar-adjusted IP contracted by a more limited 2.2% y/y in March. As a result, we estimate that unadjusted IP has contracted by 5.7% y/y in 1Q19, compared to 7.3% drop in 4Q18.
Halkbank reported TL305mn unconsolidated net income in 1Q19, lower than the TL393mn consensus and TL399mn BGC estimates. The miss at the pre-tax level seems to be even higher, as the bank generated a higher-than-expected tax income, with pre-tax income reading TL116mn. With most of the P&L lines being in-line with estimates, we assess the main deviation occurred in higher-than-forecast opex
Turkish automotive exports declined by 9.7% y/y in Apr-19 with Tofas’ exports down by 16.4% and Ford Otosan’s up by 26.4%/TOASO-neutral, FROTO-slightly better. According to data from OSD (Automotive Manufacturers’ Association), there was a 12.4% y/y decline in Turkish automotive sector exports to 107,020 units in Apr-19, while exports fell by 7.4% YTD to 431,005 units. Turkey’s automotive exports declined by 7% y/y to US$10,550mn in Jan-Apr ’19. A weaker EUR against the USD as well as the contraction in the European passenger car market (-3.3% y/y in 1Q19) are the main culprits behind the decl...
Current account balance in March produced a deficit of US$0.6bn, which was slightly better than expectations. With the March data, we see that Turkey’s 12-month rolling C/A deficit improved from US$17.0bn in February to US$12.8bn in March, or to below 2.0% of GDP.
Emlak REIT reported TL1.2bn in revenues (-14% y/y, Cons: TL1.2bn), -TL9mn in EBITDA (vs. +TL846mn in 1Q19, Cons: +TL222mn), and TL48mn in net income (vs. TL867mn net income in 3Q17, Cons.: TL104mn) in 1Q19. While the top-line was exactly in-line with expectations, gross margin was well-below expectations at a mere 5%, compared to the 48% average of the past 10 years
Pegasus reported a net loss of TL215mn in 1Q19, worse than market consensus of TL188mn but in line with BGC estimate of TL219mn net loss… When we compare the EBITDA figures with our estimates, it seems that operational performance was better than our expectations as the company recorded an EBITDAR figure of TL244mn in 1Q19 vs. our expectation of TL127mn
Selcuk Ecza reported a net income of TL253.3mn in 1Q19 (+66.6%, y/y), better (consensus: TL195mn, BGC: TL193mn)… There was a 26.4% rise in pharmaceuticals prices (EUR adjustment) in February 2019; the rise in prices helped Selcuk Ecza to post strong margins in 1Q19, thanks to growing top line and inventory gains (we expect the impact to fade significantly in 2Q19). Revenues of TL4,163mn in 1Q19 (+26.8%, y/y) were in line with estimates (consensus: TL4,184mn, BGC: TL4,171mn), but the company posted TL279.6mn EBITDA in the quarter at an impressive 6.7% margin, exceeding market estimates (consen...
Vakifbank reported TL651mn unconsolidated net income in 1Q19, broadly in line with the TL664mn consensus and slightly lower than the TL702mn BGC estimates. However, we should note that our estimate included some TL280mn of free provision reversal expectation, which materialized at only TL113mn, indeed suggesting a beat, albeit a relatively weak ROAE of c.8% in 1Q19
Yatas reported TL14.1mn net income in 1Q19 (consensus: TL15.7mn, BGC: TL17.8mn), slightly lower, operationally in line… January was weak, but February was stronger than expected, followed by a stable March. Recall that VAT cut (to 8% from 18%, re-initiated in October 2018) had been extended until June-end, so the company benefited from it in the quarter
BIM reported 1Q19 net profit of TL215mn (-8% y/y) with IFRS 16; TL266mn (+13% y/y) without IFRS 16 adjustment, 7% lower than consensus and 2% higher than our expectation… We view the results in line, reflecting the margin pressures that were widely anticipated in 1Q19, although the bottom line is slightly lower than consensus. We rate BIM Buy with a 12-mth target price of TL96.2/share and will go through the results after hearing the management’s comments on outlook after today’s conference call, the details of which are provided at the end of this message.
Petkim reported a net profit of TL154mn (+17% YoY) in 1Q19, better than market consensus of TL107mn and our expectation of TL112mn. The company posted an EBITDA of TL289mn (+32% YoY) in 1Q19 better than market consensus of TL258mn, but in line with our expectation of TL278mn. Main deviation from our expectations were: i) stronger than expected top-line which was offset weaker petrochemical margins, ii) lower than expected net financial expenses and iii) lower than expected depreciation charges. We expect the earnings announcement to have a positive impact on the stock performance.
Turkish Airlines reported a net loss of TL1,253mn (vs. TL314mn net loss in 1Q18) in 1Q19, worse than market consensus of TL662mn net loss and BGC estimate of TL864mn net loss… Due to IFRS16 changes it is not easy to compare operational figures with consensus estimates as consensus figures were not taking IFRS16 impact into account. EBITDA (with positive impact of IFRS 16) came in at US$208mn in 1Q19 according to company’s calculation method, while the consensus figure for EBITDA was US$179mn excluding IFRS impact. Therefore, it seems that operational performance was slightly below expectations...
Sok announces 1Q19 net loss as TL97mn (vs. 1Q18 net loss of TL119mn), in line with consensus expectation of net loss of TL69mn, when adjusted for the negative IFRS 16 impact of TL24.9mn. The company will hold a conference call on the results later today, the details of which are at the end of this note.
Indeks Bilgisayar reported a net income of TL18.2mn in 1Q19 (4Q18: TL74.7mn, 1Q18: TL16.6mn), better (BGC: TL12.5mn)... As expected, Indeks’ top line has been negatively affected by Datagate’s performance on a y/y basis; however, the company had stable margins despite challenges
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