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Prakash Sakpal

Indian voters' verdict on Modi arrives

After more than a month of voting in India, hopefully, the long-standing political uncertainty ends after the election results come through on 23 May. We think markets are pricing Modi's return to power, but given the anti-incumbent sentiment seen in last year's state-level elections in Modi stronghold states, the potential for surprise remains

Suvi Platerink Kosonen

ABN AMRO/Green Fatigue?/STABLE

ABN AMRO suffered from revenue headwinds and the bank's cost measures were not enough to offset this pressure. Net Income declined by 20% YoY in 1Q19. The bank's credit costs somewhat improved over the quarter. ABN AMRO has a solid capital position. That said, RWA dynamics are likely to keep pressure on its capital and MREL ratios this year. ABN AMRO has indicated that it plans to issue non-preferred senior this year. Meeting this year's MREL target would imply an issuance need of c.€800m. ABN AMRO has already issued four green bonds. We see value in the green ABNANV0.875 4/25 that has underpe...

Timme Spakman

No new tariffs, for now…

The US has delayed a decision to label automobile imports a national security threat, but the tariff threat remains on the table

Nadège Tillier

National Grid/Challenges await, now fairly priced/STABLE (previously Preferred)

National Grid's preliminary 2018-19 results beat estimates despite much lower operating and net income that was impacted by exceptional cost items. Credit ratios also show deterioration, despite still being within agencies' requirements to maintain current credit ratings. 2018-19 operating profit fell to £2,870m, from £3,493m a year ago. The company booked £624m in exceptional costs, including £204m for restructuring programmes, £283m for the Massachusetts Gas labour dispute and £137m for the final settlement of LIPA MSA transition. Without these extra charges, the company would have reported ...

Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Daily FX Technical

EUR/USD. Today's violation of the short-term support line around 1.1180 is weakening the picture within the consolidation pattern. This is suggesting an increasing risk of continuing the downtrend below the crucial horizontal support around 1.1115. Please keep in mind that we should see a downward acceleration below this crucial support level. The April 2017 gap at 1.0738-1.0821 will be the first reference point with the lower end of the falling trend channel offering support around 1.0790. Our short-term bearish targets are unchanged at 1.1050, 1.0975 and 1.0755. All in all, our rating rema...

Maureen Schuller

What's up in Covered Bonds/LBBW expands green portfolio with UK loans

LBBW published its updated green bond framework earlier this week. Besides allocations to eligible green commercial buildings (retail and offices in Germany, the US and the UK as per the 2019 criteria), the updated framework allows for proceed allocations to German residential buildings that meet the EnEV 2009 standards. Renewable energy projects (wind and solar) also remain eligible.

Bert Colijn ...
  • Carsten Brzeski
  • Jakub Rybacki
  • James Knightley
  • James Smith
  • Prakash Sakpal

Our view on next week's key events

Discover what ING analysts are looking for next week in our global economic calendars

Hendrik Wiersma ...
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Job Veenendaal
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/RBS, Barclays and EDP

S&P lifts the ratings of Royal Bank of Scotland (RBS) and its subsidiaries by one notch citing a stronger risk profile. The issuer credit rating of the UK holding company Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc was upgraded to BBB from BBB-. The ratings of The Royal Bank of Scotland plc, National Westminster Bank and Ulster Bank were raised to A from A-. Additionally, the long-term issuer credit ratings of NatWest Markets plc/NV was raised to A- from BBB+, among others. The outlook of all entities is now stable. The rating agency cites the bank being well advanced in addressing its legacy risks and i...

Job Veenendaal

Euro Quantitative Credit Pack

CDS Performance, Sector Performance and Events Calendar Euro Credit asset swap spreads and performance

Warren Patterson

The Commodities Feed: OPEC+ set to meet

Your daily roundup of commodities news and ING views

Research Department

Benelux Morning Notes

AEGON: Divestment of stake in partnership with Sony Life in Japan. D'Ieteren: Profit growth guidance to >25% from >10%. Elia: Fully in-line trading update without further numbers. Amazon investment in Deliveroo should have limited impact on TKWY

Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Analysis/Recent breakout in the Bund above 166.70 is suggesting further gains

The weekly close above the horizontal resistance barrier at 159.80 suggests a resumption of the long-term uptrend. Next resistance at the upper end of the 3 year rising trend channel around the 170.65 area with the long-term rising trend channel showing resistance around 177.60 at the upper end of this channel. This is in line with our long-term bullish target for the coming months at 167.70.

Ciprian Dascalu ...
  • Valentin Tataru

Briefing Romania

Another strong primary auction

Chris Turner ...
  • Petr Krpata, CFA

Daily FX Strategy/It ain't looking pretty

Chief Investment Officers must be considering more defensive strategies right now. It has not been a bad year for asset market performance, with the MSCI World equity index up 13% and some common bond indices up 2-3%. But now faced with: a) an escalating US-China trade war taking on some unedifying nationalist tones, b) oil rising on supply concerns as Iran is backed into a corner in the Middle East and c) a late cycle US economy, investors will be focused more on preserving capital. This dark mood is playing out in the FX space, where any rallies in commodity currencies quickly fizzle and USD...

Prakash Sakpal

Singapore exports maintain double-digit declines in 2Q

Data foreshadows a continued slowdown in manufacturing and GDP growth in the current quarter, making it increasingly difficult for the central bank to maintain its tighter policy stance

Iris Pang ...
  • Nicky Mapa
  • Prakash Sakpal
  • Rob Carnell

Good MornING Asia - 17 May 2019

Australia goes to the polls over the weekend, while an end to long-standing political uncertainty in India, Indonesia, and Thailand finally seems around the corner

Dmitry Dolgin

Russia keeps accumulating foreign assets

April balance of payments confirms the corporate preference to convert export proceeds into international assets, making foreign inflows into local state bonds the only support factor for the ruble exchange rate

Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Trend Monitor

BTP future Yesterday, prices successfully tested the horizontal support level around 128.45. Today's solid rise is suggesting the development of a bottom above this horizontal support level. A close above the still rising MA-50 line at 129.59 will confirm the bottoming scenario. That would suggest that prices are building momentum for a test of the strong horizontal resistance area 130.70-131.70. There are short-term bullish targets at 130.50 and 132.80 with a long-term bullish target at 149 (!), although this seems too much. However, it is telling us that the surprise should be on the upside ...

Nicky Mapa

Philippine's central bank announces phased RRR redux

The central bank will carry out a cumulative 200 bps cut to the RRR, 100 bps at the end of May, 50 by the end of June and another 50 by the end of July

Timme Spakman

Trade tensions accelerate move of China's factories

China's move up the value chain is re-shaping global trade as we know it and the trade war with the US is speeding up the process

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