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Rob Carnell

No news is good news

With the clock ticking until the Schedule 4B list of additional tariffs due on December 15 is implemented, there doesn't seem to be much progress on an elusive trade deal. The S&P 500 is grinding ever higher though. Bond markets are treading water. USDCNY is flattish to a little higher.

ING
Dmitry Dolgin

Russian industry: not feeling it yet

The highly anticipated acceleration of budget spending growth in 4Q19 has so far not translated into higher industrial activity, which remained mostly driven by the oil downstream in October

ING
Timothy Rahill

US Dollar Quantitative Credit Pack

CDS Performance, Sector Performance and Events Calendar US Dollar Credit asset swap spreads and performance

ING
Francesco Pesole

FX Positioning: dollar-bloc divergence

CFTC data presents a mixed picture for G10 positioning. Most moves were likely driven by idiosyncratic stories, although the common thread seems to be building momentum in the dollar. The dynamics of risk-sensitive currencies have diverged: speculators sold the Australian and Canadian dollars whilst trimming extreme shorts in the New Zealand dollar

ING
Jeroen van den Broek ...
  • Timothy Rahill

Bite Size Strategy/CSPP amount eagerly awaited, bullish if >15% of APP

Despite the previous week seeing considerable activity in CSPP, spreads widened by 2-3bp last week. However, we still see strong inflows and expect spreads to tighten. Corporate credit curves also steepened last week but this is likely to reverse, with our expectation for the ECB to continue to target the long end.

ING
Timothy Rahill

Euro Quantitative Credit Pack

CDS Performance, Sector Performance and Events Calendar Euro Credit asset swap spreads and performance

ING
Nicky Mapa

FM Manila View and Cues/FOMC minutes and the fate of “phase 1” deal to dictate sentiment

PHP: Peso to get a boost from remittances and portfolio flows on real rate cushion. FXTN - BVAL: Bond maturity could be factor but long end rates to edge higher. ROPs (& INDONs): Bargain hunting could lift prices as trade talks continue

ING
Alyssa Gammoudy ...
  • Hendrik Wiersma
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen
  • Timothy Rahill

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Orange and Engie

Orange working on IPO for its African business; we continue to prefer DT over Orange in 8-11 year maturities

ING
Ciprian Dascalu ...
  • Valentin Tataru

Briefing Romania

EUR/RON testing 4.7700

ING
ING Helpdesk

Benelux Morning Notes

Ackermans & Van Haaren: Co-investment in Indian Medikabazaar. DSM: Cheesemonger. TKH Group: Slightly lowers FY19 net profit guidance

ING
Chris Turner ...
  • Francesco Pesole
  • Petr Krpata, CFA

Daily FX Strategy/GBP: Momentum with the Tories

Week-end opinion polls show the Tories extending their lead over Labour to the 15-17% range – which is giving GBP a boost in early Europe. Voters will eagerly be awaiting the first televised election debate between Johnson and Corbyn, which takes place tomorrow night at 21CET. Johnson has traditionally been seen as the stronger performer at Prime Minister's Question Time (Wednesdays in the Commons), thus short term GBP bulls will probably be happy holding their positions into Wednesday. EUR/GBP can probably work its way towards 0.8500. For our full election scenario analysis, please see here.

ING
Antoine Bouvet ...
  • Benjamin Schroeder
  • Padhraic Garvey, CFA

Rates Strategy Spark/Collision Course

This week should deliver partial answers to questions we argue are more important for rates outlook than the US/China trade truce. Namely, has the economic outlook indeed stabilised or (whisper it) rebounded, and how resolute are the Fed and ECB in their easing pause?

ING
Marc Zwartsenburg, CEFA

ING Benelux Favourites and Least Favourites/Weekly performance and valuation update

In this publication we update the performance of our ING Benelux Favourites list as well as all valuation and ranking tables for our coverage universe. Performance on the front page is dated from our last comprehensive update published on 18 January 2018, while the rolling performance since inception is included on subsequent pages. The methodology for our favourites selection is based on a bottom-up approach with a focus on absolute performance with clear near-term triggers. It is a rolling list, ie, stocks can enter/exit whenever we think opportune.

ING
Alyssa Gammoudy

Unilever N.V./Investor day 2019 recap; a tree grows in silence, so does Unilever

This week Unilever organized its annual investor event in Englewood Cliffs, USA on 13 and 14 November. The company gave a general update on its regions and divisions and particularly zoomed in on the US and China. Supply chain and Technology also received extra attention. During the event no financial guidance was given, but the different presentation gave a more granular insight on how Unilever will turn the current day's challenges into opportunities to stay ahead and achieve long-term sustainable growth. Unilever, and its peers Danone and Nestle are eligible for CSPP, which contributes to t...

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Analysis/Next sharp sell-off in Bund future is looming

• The weekly close above the horizontal resistance barrier around 163.15, in February this year, resulted in a resumption of the long-term uptrend. Prices topped around 176.80 in the beginning of September, showing a pull-back within the long-term uptrend. The recent close below the 12-month steep rising trend line around 171.70 confirms an extension of the consolidation pattern within the long-term uptrend. Prices arrived at the EMA-40 line at 169.28 with solid horizontal support coming in around 168.70, suggesting a recovery should be expected. • Our premise was and still is that this short-...

ING
Prakash Sakpal

Thailand: Has GDP growth really bottomed?

Headline GDP growth improved slightly in the third quarter but the main GDP drivers are still missing in action. We think the Bank of Thailand will use firmer growth as an argument for leaving policy on hold in the rest of 2019 and throughout 2020

ING
Chris Turner ...
  • Francesco Pesole

G10 FX Week Ahead: Enjoy the silence

The best tip for next week is to perhaps enjoy the silence, as Depeche Mode put it in 1990, given the quiet-looking calendar. But there's still some noise to be heard from the trade negotiations, and things get busier towards the end of the week as we look to see if the eurozone PMIs can trigger a turnaround in Europe's battered economic outlook

ING
James Knightley

US: Manufacturing misfortunes

US industrial output plunged again in October as the combination of weak global activity, trade uncertainty and a strong dollar weighed on activity. Unfortunately, business surveys suggest there is more pain ahead for the sector

ING
James Knightley

US: A consumer conundrum

The strong jobs market and rising wages offer support to spending, but the latest retail sales numbers suggest growth is slowing

ING
Timothy Rahill

US Dollar Quantitative Credit Pack

CDS Performance, Sector Performance and Events Calendar US Dollar Credit asset swap spreads and performance

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