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Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Trend Monitor

BTP future. The uptrend is running out of steam as the daily momentum chart is weakening, showing a series of lower peaks. However, as long as prices are successfully consolidating above the lower end of the rising trend channel around 128.00 and the horizontal support around 127.85 there is a possibility of making new short-term highs. A clear break above the 130.00 level will confirm a continuation of the uptrend, but the upside potential remains limited. Overhead horizontal resistance comes in between 130.70 and 131.70. There are short-term bullish targets at 131.10 and 132.30.

ING
Carsten Brzeski ...
  • Jakub Seidler
  • James Knightley
  • James Smith
  • Peter Virovacz
  • Prakash Sakpal

Our view on next week's key events

Discover what ING analysts are looking for next week in our global economic calendars

ING
Jakub Seidler ...
  • Petr Krpata, CFA

Czech Republic: Rates to stay on hold amid uncertain global backdrop

We expect the Czech National Bank to remain on hold next Thursday for the same reason it held rates steady in February: an uncertain global environment. The CNB board is likely to wait for a new forecast in May before any policy reaction. This should outweigh the weaker-than-expected Czech koruna and higher core CPI

ING
Dmitry Dolgin

Russia: Key rate unchanged, cautious optimism prevails

The Bank of Russia kept the key rate at 7.75% and slightly improved the YE19 CPI outlook by 0.3 percentage points to around 5.0%. This is in line with our expectations but not as aggressive as some market participants hoped for. We believe the actual list of upside risks to CPI is longer than those listed by the CBR, making a rate cut before 4Q19 highly unlikely

ING
Maureen Schuller

What's up in Covered Bonds/Liberbank covered bonds upgraded at Moody's

Moody's yesterday upgraded the covered bond ratings of Liberbank from A1 to Aa2. The rating action follows the upgrade of the bank's Counterparty Risk Assessment (CRA) from Ba1(cr) to Baa3(cr) on the same day. Moody's decided to upgrade the CRA and long-term deposit ratings (the latter from Ba3 to Ba2) of Liberbank based upon the bank's improved credit profile.

ING
Bert Colijn

Eurozone: March rounds out poor quarter as PMI drops again

The March decline in the eurozone's PMI indicates the bloc's economic problems are far from over, as Feburary's increase was taken as a sign of things bottoming out

ING
James Smith

UK: Article 50 extended - Is a ‘no deal' Brexit now more likely?

EU leaders have granted an extension to the Article 50 negotiating period, piling the pressure on the UK Parliament to agree a way forward on Brexit. The question is: will a majority of British MPs settle on a course of action before the EU's 12 April deadline?

ING
Job Veenendaal

Euro Quantitative Credit Pack

CDS Performance, Sector Performance and Events Calendar Euro Credit asset swap spreads and performance

ING
Hendrik Wiersma ...
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Job Veenendaal
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Deutsche Bank, Swedbank and Telecom Italia

Deutsche Bank (DB) warned that the market conditions in the beginning of the year have improved as compared to those experienced in 4Q18 but are somewhat weaker than the bank had anticipated. The bank expects its revenues to be slightly higher in 2019 than in 2018 assuming solid economic growth. Earlier this week UBS indicated its 1Q has been one of the worst in recent history and that its revenues in its investment bank declined by a third.

ING
Research Department

Benelux Morning Notes

ArcelorMittal: Feedback from Ilva plant tour. SBM Offshore: Carcara - the heat is on

ING
Roelof-Jan van den Akker

Technical Analysis/Buying on weakness within the Bund future

The weekly close above the horizontal resistance barrier at 159.80 suggests a resumption of the long-term uptrend. Next resistance at the upper end of the 3 year rising trend channel around the 169.75 area with the long-term rising trend channel showing resistance around 176.30 at the upper end of this channel. This is in line with our long-term bullish target for the coming months at 167.70.

ING
Ciprian Dascalu ...
  • Valentin Tataru

Briefing Romania

Strong 1-year T-bills auction

ING
Chris Turner ...
  • Petr Krpata, CFA

Daily FX Strategy/RUB: CBT on hold, focus on balance of payments

Our economists expect he CBR to remain on hold today. Feb inflation of 5.2% YoY (and most likely 5.4-5.5% YoY in March) is comfortably within the central bank's ‘line in the sand' of 6%, economic activity remains subdued and markets conditions haven't really deteriorated since the previous meeting. Equally, the downward rate cycle seems remote as the gasoline price freeze expires at the end of March, leaving the mid-term CPI trend uncertain, while finally mid-term market uncertainties related to global and Russia-focused risk-appetite haven't evaporated. With the no change from the CBR widely ...

ING
Marc Hesselink, CFA ...
  • Marc Zwartsenburg, CEFA

Signify/Reaching a plateau in difficult markets/HOLD

Signify is faced by difficult market circumstances. Organic growth disappointed in 2018 and we believe that 2019 will be off for a tough start on the back of further macro headwinds. Cost cutting potential will remain the attraction of the case, but we expect incremental savings to be smaller than in the past. As a result, we expect Signify to report more-or-less flat profit and FCF in the coming years, which in our view warrants a reiteration of our Hold rating.

ING
Jaap Kuin ...
  • Jason Ball, CFA

ADO Properties/Shifting sands; Downgrading to Hold/HOLD (previously Buy)

In our view, 2019 has shifted from a visible cash flow-driven story with little reliance on further market yield compression to one in which NAV growth is increasingly reliant on yield compression given the limited scope for near-term margin recovery. Given the 6% discount to reported NAV, we think further downside risk is limited and is only likely in the face of materially negative incremental newsflow from the ADO Group level. That said, we see zero near-term catalysts for the story to regain its previous cache. We downgrade from Buy to Hold while maintaining our €56 target price as the 4Q ...

ING
Nicky Mapa ...
  • Rob Carnell

Good MornING Asia - 22 March, 2019

Japanese CPI misses inflation target again, by miles. Sterling looking slightly stronger as EU hints at some flexibility on Brexit extension. Bond yields ease higher as stocks surge post FOMC.

ING
Maureen Schuller

Covered Bond Scoring System/Country Allocation Suggestions – March 2019

Italian covered bonds are leading this year's spread tightening in covered bonds but remain on underweight based upon the weak economic backdrop in Italy. Singaporean and Australian covered bonds were upgraded to overweight. Particularly Singaporean covered bonds are overdue tightening retracement. Finnish and Swiss covered bonds are now underweight on tight valuations.

ING
Rob Carnell

Japan's central bank: Best intentions, poor outcomes

To add to a long list of things considered cornerstones of Economics, which I suspect are well-meaning but misguided, let me propose central bank policies, as rates approach or pass zero. This is of particular note for the Bank of Japan, but the ECB might also want to pay attention

ING
James Smith

Canada inflation preview: The only way is up

Inflation should stay below-target in February, but from here the trend is more likely to be upwards. But with the Fed hinting at a long pause and a mixed economic backdrop, a Bank of Canada rate hike later this year hangs in the balance

ING
James Smith

Cautious Bank of England could still opt to raise rates in 2019

While the Bank of England is clear it'll stay firmly on the sidelines amid the current uncertainty, there are still hints that it could be inclined to hike rates earlier than markets think. As ever, it all depends on Brexit

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