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Bobl future continuous contract:
Long-term trend: Up. Upper end trend channel weekly chart coming in around 137.80.
Short-term trend: Up. Bottoming above horizontal support around 134.10
We expect a moderate CPI slowdown in the second half of the year. However, we see a strong case for much higher readings in 2020 and as such, the central bank is unlikely to lower rates despite looming ECB easing
China's GDP growth has slumped to its slowest pace in almost three decades, as trade tensions weigh on sentiment and activity. While retail sales appear to be holding up so far, we see signs that the tech war is starting to affect job security and expected wage growth
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Mixed Chinese data failed to set a clear tone for global market sentiment overnight. While GDP growth decelerated to multi-decade lows, retails sales, industrial production and fixed asset investments managed to beat estimates in June. Overall, it seems that more time is needed to fully assess the impacts of trade wars on Chinese economy and for now markets can preserve the risk-on mood. Such mood will be inevitably tested this week as the US corporate earnings season comes alive. Some particular attention today and tomorrow will be on major US banks - along with some tech giants - with any su...
Last year's break above the horizontal resistance barrier around 158.75 resulted in a resumption of the long-term uptrend. This is confirmed by the break above the next horizontal resistance level around 162.15 at the end of last year. Next long-term resistance levels within this strong uptrend in the weekly continuous chart comes in at the upper end of the 4 year rising trend channel around 174.80 with the long-term rising 8 year trend channel offering resistance around 181.60.
In this publication we update the performance of our ING Benelux Favourites list as well as all valuation and ranking tables for our coverage universe. Performance on the front page is dated from our last comprehensive update published on 18 January 2018, while the rolling performance since inception is included on subsequent pages. The methodology for our favourites selection is based on a bottom-up approach with a focus on absolute performance with clear near-term triggers. It is a rolling list, ie, stocks can enter/exit whenever we think opportune.
Now that the Fed has joined the dots between the trade war and the economy, expectations are that the dollar should also play its role in delivering easier monetary conditions. The problem is that the ECB is moving just as quickly, which may prevent USD/Europe from adjusting lower. The White House won't be happy
Yet another exciting week for markets kicks off with China 2Q19 GDP report today and progresses with persistent Fed policy noise, some Asian central bank policy meetings, and lots of trade data from around the region.
The external risk environment has turned slightly more benign with US-China trade tensions stabilizing and market relief provided by expected rate cuts in the US and Europe. The Brazilian BRL continues to stand out, even though we have recently moderated our appreciation trajectory for the Real. There is a weakening bias for the Mexican peso
The surge in shipments to avoid potentially higher tariffs has come to an end with Chinese exports shrinking on an annual basis in June. The tougher environment has had an impact on imports too. As things stand, it seems technology will be at the heart of the fate of China's exports in the future
Credit grew at an exceptionally fast pace in June mainly due to financing for infrastructure projects. The implication is that if there were no fiscal stimulus, the economy would be deteriorating. The key question is, can the central bank keep interest rates capped given such enormous demand for infrastructure loans?
Discover what ING analysts are looking for next week in our global economic calendars
Long-term trend: Neutral. Crucial horizontal support coming in around 0.6840.
Short-term trend: Neutral. Climbing above the MA-50 line again
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