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MIDDLE EAST CONUNDRUM: OIL PRICES
‘’We will never convince the Saudis of sharing the Middle East with Iran so long as Iranians possess 150,000 rockets in Lebanon and control a large Hezbollah force in Lebanon, Yemen and Syria. Iran has to be brought to recognise national borders and to abandon its bid for hegemony. When they do, there can be a relatively stable Middle East.’’ Henr...
Softs Weekly June 22nd 2017
The commodity wipe out gained downward momentum on a combination of factors that washed over the markets in tsunami-like fashion and sent them crashing lower. While the extent of the moves was fairly large, I can’t say the downside is in. Not if the Brazilian real and oil prices remain under pressure and the weather stays goodEl Niño Cancelled: C...
Coffee Report June 22nd 2017
Coffee prices collapsed this week along with the rest of the Softs Complex. The fundamentals were a continuation of the same with really very little fresh news to spark the slide. If the weather remains favorable, there may be more room on the downside.
Softs Weekly Round-up June 15th 2017
The Softs remain under pressure, with further room to fall, especially for sugar and cotton in the short term. Cocoa will continue to be erratic.The USDA Coffee World Markets and Trade report will be released tomorrow PM. Much of the data is known already through attaché reports.
Coffee Weekly 15th June 2017
Once again it is the United States coffee stock data that is the bull show stopper. With over seven million bags on hand, minor production issues won’t matter much.
May'17: Commodities Update
Mimicking bearish oil price trend, the global commodity index lost 1.1%MoM in May'17. Despite OPEC's decision to extend cuts till Mar'18, a combination of resilient shale output and surprisingly sluggish demand in summers have resulted in crude prices going down 1.5%/2.1%MoM for Brent/Arablight. Similarly, Urea (down 11.4%MoM) and Coal (down 6.4%M...
Softs Weekly June 8th 2017
The Softs Complex remained under pressure. Coffee may try to buck the down seasonal and establish a base. Commodity Seasonal Sell-Off Continues FCOJ: Market Bracing for Big Brazil Crop Cotton: India Stepping Up Plantings Sugar: Monsoon Rain Forecasts Improving Cocoa: Erratic Behavior to Continue Coffee: Colombia May Production Down as Expecte...
Coffee Weekly - June 8th 2017
The coffee market may attempt to stabilize and bottom near term based on lowered Brazilian crop quality and several other factors. I’m not bullish. Simply less bearish for the time being and that the market seems due for a contrarian bounce.
Limited implications of Gulf tensions
Imposition of a complete and abrupt embargo by Saudi Arabia led bloc of Middle Eastern nations (Egypt, UAE, Bahrain and Yemen) on the State of Qatar. While the situation remains very fluid, with developments coming by the hour, Pakistan has been neutral so far with the foreign office stressing that Pakistan has no plans to cut diplomatic ties with...
Comment on Light Crude Oil, June 2, 2017
Light Sweet Crude Oil (WTI): 48.36 USD / bbl. [Bloomberg Ticker: CL1:COM]Graph Analysis and Technical View
Softs In-depth Report April-May 2017
The Softs have been tracking lower recently with the exception of cocoa which started to finally rebound. It seems the worst of the news is already reflected in the market. Sugar remains under pressure as long as the weather is good; same with cotton. FCOJ prices are eroding on a big Brazilian crop and ongoing poor demand.
Coffee Weekly June 1st 2017
The coffee market was hammered with unease about weather conditions fading and export volumes not tapering off as much as needed to provide underpinning to the market. The latest Softs In-Depth Report and Coffee In-Depth Report are available. Please see my page on ResearchPool
Softs Weekly June 1st 2017
The Softs Complex has been under a barrage of selling pressure as most of the markets are transitioning from a period of leaner supplies to more ample availability in 2017-18. Cocoa is the exception. The latest Softs In-Depth Report and Coffee In-Depth Report are available.on my page at ResearchPool .
J Ganes Consulting Coffee In-Depth Report
The coffee market remains under continued pressure. There are a few potentially bullish factors but as long as the weather remains non-threatening, the focus will be not on the minor deficit in 2017-18 but massive supply potential the year after.As a reminder, please respect subscription terms and do not forward the report on to others. Thank you.
COMMODITIES OUTLOOK - Base Metals/Precious Metals & Crude Oil set to Surge Higher
In This Edition: The individual contracts traded within the different commodity sectors, Base Metals, Precious Metals and Energy have been diverging over the shorter-term but are n...
CHINA VISIT: MAY 2017 – PART II COPPER
Part 1 set out our thoughts on China’s economic outlook. GDP growth is bound to slow by 2020 because of the secular fall in the country’s labour force. Some of that decline will be balanced by rising productivity due to the leadership’s focus on automation, innovation and the development of new and evolving industries centred around the ‘Internet ...
Pakistan Textiles: Sector update Apr'17
Following decent recovery in Mar'17, Pakistan's total exports in Apr'17 clocked in at US$1.805bn, higher 0.3%MoM/4.9%YoY led by surging food exports (+13.4%MoM/+19.1%YoY) to US$0.392bn. However, the textile exports declined by 3.7%MoM/0.8%YoY to US$1.025bn, where both low-value added segment (falling 4%MoM/4%YoY to US$278mn) and value added segment...
Derichebourg. RN 2016/17: Encore beaucoup d'upside
Le groupe Derichebourg publiait et présentait ses résultats du premier semestre hier soir. Avec un CA de 1 340 M€ (+33%), un Ebitda de 92,1 M€ (+103%), un ROC de 53,0M€ (+492%) et un RNpg de 30,3 M€ (vs. 0,1 M€), ceux-ci encore bien meilleurs que nos résultat...
Thought for the Day - Why Copper Prices Will Rise Sharply By 2020 and Then Collapse
Abstract: By year-end President Trump should have a settled White House and cabinet having cleansed the system of those opposing his foreign and elements of his domestic policies. Tax cuts and an infrastructure bill should be passed by end this year. Peace and world economic recovery will be the primary focus. Policies will veer towards inflating ...
Softs Weekly Round-up - 18th May 2017
The overall tone for the softs complex is negative with the exception of the cocoa market. The latest turmoil in Brazil simply feeds into this perspective for coffee and sugar especially.As a reminder, next week I will not be publishing a weekly report. If you have any market questions though, please don’t hesitate to contact me on my whatsapp num...
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