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Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

EU and UK Financials remain actionable Our outlook on global equities (both the MSCI ACWI and ACWI ex-US) remains positive and we continue to expect higher equity prices going forward. Below we highlight several new developments which give us additional confidence in our outlook, including but not limited to continued price and RS improvements for UK/European Financials. • Actionable Sector: Financials. Today's stock recommendations go beyond UK and European Financials, however these regions are the primary focus due to a plethora of attractive setups. In today's report we reiterate our 3/21...

Ayodeji Dawodu ...
  • Olabisi Ayodeji
  • Rahul Shah CFA

Guaranty Trust Bank: Better-than-expected results; reiterate Buy

Q1 19 EPS rose 10% yoy to NGN1.74 and ROA improved by 0.5ppts to 5.7%, tracking ahead of our full-year forecasts of NGN6.12 and 5.0%. A positive surprise was the NGN6.1bn in ‘recoveries and others’ reported under ‘other income’, which more than accounted for the yoy increase in the bottom line. There was also a surprising 92% increase in credit-related fees yoy, despite weaker loan volumes. The unexpected 76% spike in AMCON charges came as a major negative surprise, which kept the cost/income ratio flat yoy at 38%. As expected, net interest income was slightly lower and trading income and FX g...

Ayodeji Dawodu ...
  • Olabisi Ayodeji
  • Rahul Shah CFA

Zenith Bank: Good start to the year; reiterate Buy

Q1 19 EPS rose 7% yoy to NGN1.60 and ROA improved slightly to 3.4% (up 0.1ppt), trending ahead of our full-year forecasts for an 8% yoy decline in EPS to NGN5.69 and ROA of 2.9%. A key driver of the performance was a yoy drop in gross funding costs, which in addition to higher interest income from treasury bills, drove the 23% yoy increase in net interest income. Other positives were higher net fee and commission income, lower impairment charges for credit losses, and a decline in general operating expenses. Headwinds included an expected decline in trading income and FX gains, which resulted ...

Michael Field

Morningstar | Securitas Company Report

In our security sector coverage list, Securitas is the purest play on the manned guarding space, which encompasses manned security, mobile security, monitoring, and risk assessment. In this highly fragmented space, Securitas is the market leader, with estimated 15% market share, a significant standing considering that the fourth-largest firm has just 1% market share.Securitas has gone through several material portfolio changes. In 2006, it divested its cash-in-transit and alarms businesses, which initially excited the market, but following several years of relatively weak organic growth, ultim...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks

Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.

Stuart Culverhouse

Weekly Credit Risk Monitor

This week's developments in the world of credit.

1 director bought

A director at Gemfields Group Limited bought 573,897 shares at 1.750ZAR and the significance rating of the trade was 56/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules. The nam...

Moody's assigns definitive ratings to South African RMBS Notes issued by Amber House Fund 3 (RF) Limited

Rating Action: Moody's assigns definitive ratings to South African RMBS Notes issued by Amber House Fund 3 Limited. Global Credit Research- 18 Apr 2019. Approximately ZAR 800 million of Debt Securities affected.

Jane Street Group, LLC: Update following ratings' affirmation

Our credit view of Jane Street reflects its strong profitability and deliberative risk management culture, and its high operational and market risk.

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