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David Ellis

ANZ’s 1Q19 Reflects Strong Asset Quality Offset by Slowing Loan Growth. FVE AUD 29 Unchanged

As expected, wide-moat Australia and New Zealand Banking Group’s, or ANZ Bank's, first-quarter fiscal 2019 update focused on capital, funding, lending growth and asset quality, with no news on earnings. Credit quality is stable with a loan loss expense of just AUD 156 million for the quarter, representing a very low annualised loss rate of 10 basis points. Capital levels remain at peer highs with a common equity Tier 1 capital ratio of 11.3% at Dec. 31, 2018. The pro forma capital ratio of 11.6%...

AUDUSD medium

AUD/USD support at .7033, resistance at .7407 and MACD is giving mixed signals. Hence, we may see some choppy moves. While above .7033 we may see a gradual base formation for medium-term upside. Below .7033 to avert upside.

AUDNZD medium

AUD/NZD has support at 1.0400 and MACD is bottoming. Hence, we may see an upside to 1.0695, likely 1.0784-1.0847. Below 1.0400 to open 1.0266

EURJPY short

EUR/JPY has resistance at 125.73 and MACD is wekening. Hence, we see a dip to 124.69, possibly 124.07. Above 125.73 to open 126.30

EURNOK medium

EUR/NOK MACD and RSI have a bearish bias and key resistance remains around 9.8267. Hence, while below there we expect a downside to 9.6075, possibly 9.5000-9.5400. Above 9.8267 to question downside.

EURSEK medium

EUR/SEK resistance lies at 1.0539 and upside momentum is still fairly weak. Hence, we see a dip to 10.219, possibly 10.127. Above 10.539 to question downside, instead open 10.679

EURUSD medium

EUR/USD bottom of the channel continues to hold and chances are for a move higher to 1.1544-1.1651, likely to the top of the bear channel while MACD remains above the support line. Below 1.1250 to avert upside.

NZDUSD medium

NZD/USD MACD and RSI have a bearish bias and resistance lies at .6920. Hence, we see a dip to .6797, possibly .6689. Above .6920 to open .7000-.7052

USDCHF medium

USD/CHF MACD has no momentum and resistance lies at 1.0108. Hence, while below there we expect a dip to .9849, likely .9740-.9792. A break above 1.0108 to change outlook.

EURCHF medium

EUR/CHF A choppy range may ensue but while above 1.1247, we expect an upside to 1.1489, possibly 1.1576. Below 1.1247 to open a 1.1199.

EURCAD medium

EUR/CAD has support at 1.4728 and MACD is looking to bottom. Hence, we may see an upside to 1.5255, possibly 1.5402. Below 1.4728 to avert upside.

GBPAUD medium

GBP/AUD has support at 1.7725, MACD is looking to improve. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.8401-1.8577. Below 1.7725 to avert upside.

GBPCHF medium

GBP/CHF has resistance at 1.3181 and MACD is approaching overbought levels. Hence, we may see a dip to 1.2691-1.2851 area. Above 1.3181 to open medium-term upside.

USDJPY short

USD/JPY resistance at 110.93 and MACD has turned bearish. Hence, we see a dip to 109.15. Above 110.93 to open 111.27

USDRUB medium

USD/RUB MACD is mixed and support lies at 64.00, hence we may see a bounce to 68.43, likely to top of the bear channel. Below 64.00 to avert upside, instead open a deeper decline.

AUDCAD medium

AUD/CAD MACD has turned negative and a head and shoulders type top was completed hence we see a dip to .9362, possibly .9256. Above .9582 to avert a deeper dip, instead open .9782, possibly .9849-.9915

EURGBP short

EUR/GBP resistance at .8820 and MACD and RSI are mixed. Hence, we expect a dip to .8757, possibly .8702. A break above .8820 to open .8881

EURJPY medium

EUR/JPY support at 123.37 and MACD bottoming. Hence, we see a bounce to 125.73, possibly 126.97. Below 123.37 to open downside

EURNZD medium

EUR/NZD MACD looking to bottom and while above 1.6322 we expect an upside to 1.6694-1.6908, possibly 1.7091-1.7269. Below 1.6322 to avert upside chances, instead open 1.6120-1.6245.

EURRUB medium

EUR/RUB MACD is looking to bottom from under the the zero line and support at 74.31. Hence, we see a bounce to 77.75, possibly 79.73. Below 74.31 is needed to question upside.

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