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Coffee Weekly October 12th 2017
The weather in Brazil is creating uncertainty and increased market volatility. While there are reports of excellent flowering that would lead to vastly improved crop views, the situation is not as clear cut and some areas remain under stress. Brazil exports had a strong drop in September, a month when shipments are normally stronger. Note: I wi...
Softs Weekly Round-up October 12th 2017
USDA Reports on Hurricane Losses FCOJ: Florida Orange Crop Loss Near Expectations Cotton: Lower Supplies; Lower Sales Sugar: Brazil Production Pace Easing Cocoa: Strength in Quarterly Grind Data Coffee: Flowering Excellent but Some Areas Too Far Gone
GMR - Issue 5717
Commentary with targets on the CRB Index, Brent, Copper, Gold and Silver.
Softs Weekly October 5th 2017
An action packed week for some of the markets with weather being the predominant driver, especially in coffee. My market bias through much of this year was pretty much negative on the softs with some exception, but now as the year is headed towards the home stretch, my market inclination has shifted to a more neutral to positive view and for some ...
J Ganes Consulting Coffee Weekly October 5th 2017
The opera ain’t over until the fat lady sings. The coffee market rose up on dry weather in Brazil and then buckled on rain and now faces yet another period of uncertainty with dry weather in the forecast at a critical stage for the crops development. There is no way to predict the outcome yet given the weather forecasts could change again even ...
J Ganes Consulting Coffee In-Depth Report September 2017
The coffee market will take its cue from prospects for the Brazilian 2018-19 crop. Recent rains may have helped to reduce stress, but this is a critical point in the future crop’s development and rains need to continue to properly set the fruit. Export volumes are starting to wane. Consumer stocks though remain high. The ICO released the Augu...
J Ganes Consulting Softs In-Depth Report August-September 2017
Please find the Softs In-Depth Report attached. My market views have not shifted in the past two months and believe that the Softs Complex overall is in the process of forming a long term base. Much of the negative news is already reflected in prices and with the exception of cotton, stocks are expected to decline in 2017-18. This includes su...
Softs Weekly September 28th 2017
The markets backed off prior rally with sugar and coffee being pushed lower on improving weather outlook in Brazil. For coffee, the jury is still out as to what the crop size may be, but perfection was needed and that seems to be off the table no matter what. Cocoa is seeing solid underpinning. I continue to think demand is the key to this mark...
Coffee Weekly September 28th 2017
The coffee market has buckled under forecasts for rain. Drought worries have been erased. However, the Brazilian 2018-19 crop may still not be able to be big enough. While it may be too soon to be overly bullish, but I certainly am tempering my persistent negative posture I held most of this past year.
Coffee Weekly September 21st 2017
The coffee market took a pounding on forecasts for rain in Brazil after an exceedingly dry September threatened next season’s production view. Some of the damage is irreversible, but it is the likelihood that no further lost production potential may occur is what caused the hasty end to the weather spike.
J Ganes Consulting Softs Weekly 092117
The Softs Complex showed mixed results this week with coffee falling on forecasts for rain and cotton continuing to slide due to strong production views, despite losses from hurricanes. The FCOJ market continues to back off prior highs as well with consumption losses expected to counter the production damage. Sugar and cocoa are holding their ow...
China Visit - Part II - Copper
Abstract: China’s refined copper consumption is being driven first by the emerginggrowth in the country’s lower tiered cities. These cities accounted for 79% of itspopulation and 51% of its GDP in 2015. As a result, a new phase in the developmentof the aircon sector has begun with aircon production rising from 104 million units in2015 to 219 millio...
Coffee Weekly September 14th 2017
I’m not one to be spooked by photos of trees in poor condition, but there certainly does seem to be some issues in Brazil with the Arabica crop that is supposed to flower now and set new records. There is enough evidence to believe that it won’t happen, even with a strong improvement in the Robusta crop view.
Softs Weekly Round Up - September 14th 2017
Hurricane Irma took a toll on Florida citrus and sugarcane to a lesser extent. Dryness continues to worry Brazilian coffee farmers in Minas Gerais and rain is needed soon to prevent more damage. Cotton farmers are seeing incredible yields this year in the USA and abroad negating the losses from Hurricane Harvey FCOJ: Hurricane Irma Winds and R...
GOLD – bullish, but potential for pullback.
A 10 year rally in GOLD throughout the 2000’s has stalled:, but with deteriorating sentiment between 2011 and 2015 attracting buyers back to the market from close to 1087.5, a key 50% correction to the gains. Last year’s bounce has also stalled, - ahead of ...
COPPER PRICES: AN UPDATE
Some clients were a bit confused after reading our short note ‘’China: The Game Changer Once More’’ following our earlier note ‘’Time to Take Some Money Off the Table’’ dated 31st July. This short note attempts to show that the two reports are compatible with each other.In the second quarter copper prices slipped back from their sound start to the ...
China : The game changer once more
We have just completed our new visit to China and have spent some time rejigging our numbers.There are two big drivers to consumption supported by continued growth in products associated with infrastructure and real estate. For instance, copper used in power cable should increase by 8% this year and 10% in 2018.
CHINA’S AIRCON SECTOR: THE REAL DRIVER FOR COPPER CONSUMPTION
Abstract: A new phase in the development of China’s aircon industry started this year and will be ongoing but with very large sale increases in 2018. There are a number of factors behind this development but the main one is the growing market for aircons in tier 4 and 5 cities. Intensity of use is low but disposable incomes are rising. Depending on...
Coffee Weekly September 7th 2017
The coffee market is trying to sort fact from fiction regarding the condition of the trees in Brazil and impact on the next crop potential. While there seems to be some smoke and maybe the crop won’t reach perfection, it doesn’t mean it still can’t be rather large. Hoping all impacted by the Hurricanes will be safe and not sustain too much d...
Softs Weekly September 7th 2017
The markets continue to watch the weather carefully with now three active hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin. Aside from that, there is the typical drought talk in Brazil prior to the main Arabica flowering period. Harsh Weather Conditions: Three Atlantic Hurricanes and Hopes for Rain in Brazil FCOJ: Hurricane Irma Posting Threat to Florida; S...
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