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Yang Tian


朝 闻 香 江  【宏观要闻】 美联储决定维持利率不变,在政策声明中取消对利率政策保持“耐心”的表述,并下调对今年通胀水平的预测。此举暗示美联储准备进行十多年来的首次降息。 英国5月CPI同比升2%,预期升2%,前值升2.1%;环比升0.3%,预期升0.3%,前值升0.6%。英国5月核心CPI同比升1.7%,预期升1.6%,前值升1.8%;环比升0.2%,预期升0.2%,前值升0.3%。英国5月零售物价指数同比升3%,预期升2.9%,前值升3%;环比升0.3%,预期升0.2%,前值升1.1%。                       欧元区4月建筑业产出同比增3.9%,前值增6.3%;环比降0.8%,前值降0.3%。 加拿大统计局:加拿大5月CPI年率上涨2.4%,因食品与交通运输成本价格出现上扬。                    今日公布宏观数据:日本4月所有产业指数, 日本5月机床订单, 台湾5月外销订单, 英国5月零售销售。 【公司及行业讯息】 据报小米(01810.HK)中国区新零售建设追加投入50亿人币 腾讯(00700.HK)派副总裁赖智明任虚拟银行贻丰董事长 国家财政部下发可再生能源补贴81亿人币 联通(00762.HK)5月4G上客量按月加快至285.6万户 长盈集团(00689.HK)阿根廷油田项目遭当地政府重新招标 ...

Iris Pang ...
  • Nicky Mapa
  • Prakash Sakpal
  • Rob Carnell

Good MornING Asia - 20 June 2019

Asian central banks get busy with four of them (in Japan, Taiwan, Indonesia, and the Philippines) meeting today and are likely following the US Fed with dovish policy guidance, if not outright policy rate cuts.

Raphon Prima

Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI IJ) - Upgrade To BUY On Potential Benchmark Rate Cut

BBNI’s share price has fallen 18% in the past two months, reacting to a 44% yoy rise in provisions in 4M19. However, the rising provisions should not impact net profit. At Rp8,100 (lowest in past two months), share price implies a 21% yoy decline in 2019 net profit which is unlikely. Moreover, we expect 2020 net profit growth of 22% yoy, backed by a benchmark rate cut. Upgrade to BUY with a higher target price of Rp10,600.

Jackson County S.D. 6 (Central Point), OR: Update to credit analysis

Our credit view of Central Point SD, OR with a moderately sized and growing tax base, below average socioeconomic indicators, a narrowing financial profile and elevated debt and pensions.

North Las Vegas (City of) NV: Update to credit analysis following upgrade to A2

Our credit view of North Las Vegas, Nevada reflecting improvement in finances, a large tax base supported by the growing Las Vegas economy, low debt and a high pension burden.

GBPCHF medium

GBP/CHF has resistance at 1.2795 and MACD is still fairly weak. Hence, we see a further downside to 1.2504, likely 1.2399. Above 1.2795 to question downside, instead open 1.2896, possibly 1.3000.

EURJPY medium

EUR/JPY resistance at 123.57and MACD is still bearish. Hence, we see a dip to 120.57, possibly 118.94-119.91. Above 123.57 to question downside instead open 124.71-125.73.

GBPJPY medium

GBP/JPY resistance at 139.38 and MACD is bearish. Hence, we see a decline to 135.63, possibly 133.51. Above 139.38 to question downside instead open 140.51, likely 142.62.

EURJPY short

EUR/JPY has resistance at 121.66 and MACD is bearish. Hence, we see a dip to 120.57. Above 121.66 to open 122.14.

EURCHF short

EUR/CHF resistance at 1.1221, MACD and RSI are turning bearish. Hence, we see a dip to 1.1155, likely 1.1128. Above 1.1221 to open 1.1247.

EURCHF medium

EUR/CHF MACD is very bearish, resistance at 1.1247. Hence, we see a dip to 1.1128, possibly 1.1050. Above 1.1247 to question downside.

AUDCAD medium

AUD/CAD MACD is bearish and we will need a break above .9317 to open a chances of a rally to .9415, likely .9582. While below .9317 risk remain for another move lower to .9000, possibly .8874.

AUDNZD medium

AUD/NZD has resistance at 1.0645 and MACD is bearish. Hence, we see downside to 1.0505, possibly 1.0373. Above 1.0645 to question downside.

NZDUSD medium

NZD/USD MACD and RSI have started to turn bearish and resistance comes in at .6610. Hence, we expect a dip to 0.6419, possibly 0.6349. Above 0.6610 to question downside instead open .6689-.6746, likely .6809.

EURRUB medium

EUR/RUB MACD lacks upside momentum and resistance at 73.94. Hence, we see a dip to 72.09, possibly 71.00. Above 73.94 is needed to question downside, instead open 75.000, likely 75.96.

EURSEK medium

EUR/SEK the top of the bull channel has held succesfully and the suggested correction is underway, we see a downside to to 10.500-10.580, likely 10.391. A break above the channel to open 11.000-11.117.

NOKSEK medium

NOK/SEK MACD is weakening and resistance at 1.0999. Hence, while below we may see a dip to 1.0762, likely 1.0540. Above 1.0999 to avert upside instead open 1.1100.

USDJPY short

USD/JPY resistance at 108.73, MACD and RSI are giving bearish signals, Hence, we see a dip to 108.01, probably 107.57. Above 108.73 to open 109.15

USDJPY medium

USD/JPY MACD has a bearish bias, resistance at 109.15. Hence, we look for a dip to 106.65, possibly 105.50. Above 109.15 to open upside.

EURAUD medium

EUR/AUD MACD is constructive and support at 1.6195. Hence, we see a bounce to 1.6495, likely 1.6625. Below 1.6195 to open 1.6058 test..

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