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Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners: PICTURING TURKEY - GDP still slightly down y/y but up q/q in 1Q19

In our “Picturing Turkey” product we present our Nowcast Model, which aims to estimate where Turkey stands in terms of economic activity by using 22 indicators. We bring those together in three charts, one showing the GDP growth momentum and the other two showing the total consumption and investment growths.

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners - TURKEY - WEEKLY FX FLOWS: Residents were buyers of FX, foreigners sold portfolio, swap-adj. CBT reserves dropped

DEPOSITS: Total non-bank FX deposits in the Turkish banking system increased by US$2.8bn during the week on May 10, after having dropped in each of the past four weeks by a cumulative US$3.0bn. As such, non-bank FX deposits dropped by US$0.2bn since 29-Mar but increased by US$22.1bn year-to-date.

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners - TURKEY - CBT Expectation Survey: Further increase in inflation expectations...

We observe some further increases in inflation expectations over almost all time horizons, probably as a result of recent TL depreciation. On the other hand, growth forecasts have been further cut, in tandem with C/A deficit estimates

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners - TURKEY - Loan growth momentum remains at around 9%...

Unadjusted y/y loan growth increased from 12.8% to 13.3% as of May 10, while the FX adjusted y/y loan growth decreased from -0.3% to -0.5%.

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners - TURKEY - Contraction in retail sales volume remains relatively deep in March but the gradual recovery trend continues...

Retail sales volume index decreased by 5.1% y/y in March in unadjusted terms, while the calendar adjusted figures contracted by a more limited but still relatively deep 3.8% y/y. As a result, we estimate that unadjusted retail sales have contracted by 5.5% y/y in 1Q19, compared to the 7.3% drop in 4Q18.

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners: TURKEY - Deterioration in the labour market continued in February

Seasonally adjusted unemployment rate increased to 13.6% in February, from 13.3% in January. Unemployment rate has been continuously increasing since March as a result of a slowdown in economic activity, after having improved materially throughout 2017 with the help of Government’s huge employment campaign and recovery in economy & tourism.

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners - TURKEY - Industrial production’s gradual recovery trend continued in March...

According to Turkstat, industrial production (IP-NSA) registered a 4.7% y/y contraction in March while the calendar-adjusted IP contracted by a more limited 2.2% y/y in March. As a result, we estimate that unadjusted IP has contracted by 5.7% y/y in 1Q19, compared to 7.3% drop in 4Q18.

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners: HALKB 1Q19 Update - Weak operating profitability continues

Halkbank reported TL305mn unconsolidated net income in 1Q19, lower than the TL393mn consensus and TL399mn BGC estimates. The miss at the pre-tax level seems to be even higher, as the bank generated a higher-than-expected tax income, with pre-tax income reading TL116mn. With most of the P&L lines being in-line with estimates, we assess the main deviation occurred in higher-than-forecast opex

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners: Turkey produced a C/A deficit of US$0.6bn in March 2019, slightly better than expected…

Current account balance in March produced a deficit of US$0.6bn, which was slightly better than expectations. With the March data, we see that Turkey’s 12-month rolling C/A deficit improved from US$17.0bn in February to US$12.8bn in March, or to below 2.0% of GDP.

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners: 1Q19 REIT Earnings - EKGYO (worse), TRGYO (worse), OZKGY (weak)

Emlak REIT reported TL1.2bn in revenues (-14% y/y, Cons: TL1.2bn), -TL9mn in EBITDA (vs. +TL846mn in 1Q19, Cons: +TL222mn), and TL48mn in net income (vs. TL867mn net income in 3Q17, Cons.: TL104mn) in 1Q19. While the top-line was exactly in-line with expectations, gross margin was well-below expectations at a mere 5%, compared to the 48% average of the past 10 years

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners: VAKBN 1Q19 Update - Operationally better with exceptional fee income

Vakifbank reported TL651mn unconsolidated net income in 1Q19, broadly in line with the TL664mn consensus and slightly lower than the TL702mn BGC estimates. However, we should note that our estimate included some TL280mn of free provision reversal expectation, which materialized at only TL113mn, indeed suggesting a beat, albeit a relatively weak ROAE of c.8% in 1Q19

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners - TURKEY - Loan growth momentum retreats back to 9%...

Unadjusted y/y loan growth decreased from 14.6% to 12.8% as of May 3, while the FX adjusted y/y loan growth decreased from +0.2% to -0.3%.

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners - TURKEY - FOREIGN FLOWS LAST WEEK – There were inflows to equities but outflows from bonds last week…

After selling US$82mn in the previous week, foreigners bought US$183mn worth of equities on the week ending on May 3. Y-t-d inflows to equities reached US$1.0bn. Foreigners had sold US$0.9bn in 2018. Foreign ownership increased from 63.71% to 63.82%, while equity market dropped by 2.4% in US$-terms.

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners: TURKEY - Preliminary foreign trade deficit contracted by another 56% in April...

According to the Ministry of Customs and Trade, Turkey’s monthly preliminary imports decreased by 15% y/y in April and reached US$17.5bn while monthly preliminary exports grew by 4.7% y/y to reach US$14.5bn.

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners: TURKEY - Loan growth momentum increases towards 13%...

Loan growth momentum increases towards 13%... Unadjusted y/y loan growth increased from 13.8% to 14.6% as of April 26, while the FX adjusted y/y loan growth decreased from 0.4% to 0.2%.

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners: FOREIGN FLOWS LAST WEEK – There were outflows from Turkish assets last week…

EQUITY: After buying US$64mn in the previous week, foreigners sold US$48mn worth of equities on the week ending on April 26. Y-t-d inflows to equities reached US$0.9bn. Foreigners had sold US$0.9bn in 2018. Foreign ownership decreased from 64.07% to 63.71%, while equity market dropped by 4.1% in US$-terms.

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners - TURKEY - April inflation reading was better than expected...

April inflation reading was better than expected... Monthly consumer price inflation came in at +1.7% in April, lower than the +2.3% market consensus. We observe that food inflation surprised positively at 1.4% m/m, as annual CPI inflation slightly dropped to 19.5% from 19.7%. Apart from education and hotels, cafes & restaurants segments, we note that April inflation has surprised positively on all other sub-segments, leading a further drop in annual core CPI to 16.3% in April, from 17.5% in March. On the other hand, TL depreciation continued to put a pressure on PPI inflation which rose by 3....

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners: YKBNK 1Q19 Update - Relative improvement in all operational metrics continues

Yapi Kredi Bank reported TL1,241mn unconsolidated net income in 1Q19, slightly above the TL1,138mn consensus and TL1,130mn BGC estimates, mainly due to lower-than-forecast general provisions while all other lines were broadly in line with expectations. Overall, we assess that the relative improvement in YKB’s operational metrics continued in 1Q19, as the bank delivered a peer-best q/q expansion in core spreads, along with lower-than-peers net NPL formation, robust fee growth, and a contained rise in operating expenses. Meanwhile, following a deleveraging in 4Q18, YKB grew in TL SME loans under...

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners - Turkey PMI dropped back to 46.8 in April, remaining in contraction territory...

The latest PMI from Markit / Istanbul Chamber of Industry stood at 46.8 in April 2019, indicating a drop-back from the 47.2 level in March. As such, PMI remains in the contraction zone for a thirteenth month in a row.

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners - Number of foreign tourists visited Turkey increased by 4% y/y in March…

According to the Ministry of Tourism figures, after posting a 22% increase in 2018, number of foreign tourists visited Turkey registered a 4% y/y increase in March 2019, which brought the increase to 6% as of the first three months of 2019.

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