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ING
Prakash Sakpal

Asia week ahead: Fine-tuning 2Q GDP growth estimates

June activity releases will help us to fine-tune 2Q19 growth estimate for Asian economies. With downside growth risks persisting and inflation remaining low, the need for greater policy support will keep regional central banks on their toes

ING
Prakash Sakpal

Korea: Central bank starts easing cycle with 25bp rate cut

The Bank of Korea's rate cut today is a mere reversal of a 25 basis point hike in November 2018 rather than a real policy stimulus for the economy, which is close to or already in recession. We believe this is just the beginning of the easing cycle

ING
Prakash Sakpal

Singapore: Another big plunge in NODX...

… raises the odds of the Monetary Authority of Singapore easing monetary policy well ahead of the next scheduled semi-annual policy review in October

ING
Iris Pang ...
  • Nicky Mapa
  • Prakash Sakpal

Good MornING Asia - 17 July 2019

President Trump's renewed threat of more tariffs on Chinese goods has investors bracing for weak trading in the Asian session today, tracking the negative sentiment in the US overnight.

ING
Iris Pang

China: GDP growth slumps; Retail sales show warning signs

China's GDP growth has slumped to its slowest pace in almost three decades, as trade tensions weigh on sentiment and activity. While retail sales appear to be holding up so far, we see signs that the tech war is starting to affect job security and expected wage growth

ING
Nicky Mapa

FM Manila View and Cues/BI and BSP to cut policy rates as Powell confirms dovish leaning

PHP: Dovish Powell boosts PHP but gains capped as Diokno affirms his own cut. FXTN – BVAL: Traders to digest latest round of Diokno easing talk. ROPs (& INDONs): The market to track Treasuries, await BI decision

ING
Iris Pang ...
  • Nicky Mapa
  • Prakash Sakpal

Good MornING Asia - 15 July 2019

Yet another exciting week for markets kicks off with China 2Q19 GDP report today and progresses with persistent Fed policy noise, some Asian central bank policy meetings, and lots of trade data from around the region.

ING
Iris Pang

China's trade future rests on its ability to sell tech abroad

The surge in shipments to avoid potentially higher tariffs has come to an end with Chinese exports shrinking on an annual basis in June. The tougher environment has had an impact on imports too. As things stand, it seems technology will be at the heart of the fate of China's exports in the future

ING
Iris Pang

China: Soaring loan growth is a worrying signal

Credit grew at an exceptionally fast pace in June mainly due to financing for infrastructure projects. The implication is that if there were no fiscal stimulus, the economy would be deteriorating. The key question is, can the central bank keep interest rates capped given such enormous demand for infrastructure loans?

ING
Dmitry Dolgin ...
  • Jakub Rybacki
  • James Knightley
  • James Smith
  • Prakash Sakpal

Our view on next week's key events

Discover what ING analysts are looking for next week in our global economic calendars

ING
Iris Pang ...
  • Nicky Mapa
  • Prakash Sakpal
  • Rob Carnell

Good MornING Asia - 12 July 2019

Singapore's economy virtually stopped growing in 2Q19 compared to a year earlier, which makes recent suggestions of an intra-meeting policy easing look highly probable.

ING
Chris Turner ...
  • Francesco Pesole
  • Iris Pang
  • Nicky Mapa
  • Prakash Sakpal
  • Rob Carnell

Asia FX Talking: North-South divide

There are essentially two types of currency in Asia right now; those that are being beaten up by trade and tech war fears and would like some respite from a lower Fed funds rates and weaker US dollar, and those that aren't

ING
Prakash Sakpal

Asia week ahead: More central banks to join the easing bandwagon

Next week in Asia kicks off with China's 2Q19 GDP report and progresses with some central bank policy meetings and lots of trade data – making it an interesting week for markets

ING
Rob Carnell

Is the South Korean economy headed for a recession?

Our last report on Korea flagged the difficulties the economy was facing. Since then, things have worsened - the economy may even be in a recession. The central bank looks close to responding with some easing, though they have dragged their feet, which hasn't helped. The government may also have to relegate longer-term restructuring for short term support

ING
Ciprian Dascalu ...
  • Nicky Mapa
  • Trieu Pham

EM Sovereign Perspectives/Turn of the cycle: This time could be different

Markets have pushed major central banks to take the glass half empty approach while the subsequent dovish monetary policy outlook bolsters a glass half full view on risk assets. This has provided tailwinds for EM credit, but late cycle concerns and still unresolved trade tensions should provide resistance for substantial further EM spread tightening (ie, J.P. EMBIG

ING
Ciprian Dascalu ...
  • Nicky Mapa
  • Trieu Pham

EM Sovereign Perspectives/Turn of the cycle: This time could be different

ING
Nicky Mapa

Philippines: Central bank governor maps out policy sequence

Bankgo Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) Governor Benjamin Diokno laid out the possible sequence for his next moves, hinting that policy rate cuts would be followed by RRR reductions

ING
Iris Pang ...
  • Nicky Mapa
  • Prakash Sakpal
  • Rob Carnell

Good MornING Asia - 11 July 2019

Fed Chair Powell laid to rest fears that the recent non-farm payrolls strength would stay the Fed's hand at the upcoming FOMC meeting. But markets may still be pricing in too much easing - Powell remains fairly positive about the US economy

ING
Prakash Sakpal

Political stalemate hurts Thailand's economy

Three months after the General Election, politics still remains a key overhang on the Thai economy. With political logjams slowing the emergence of any fiscal stimulus, monetary policy will have to do all the heavy lifting to prop up growth. We now anticipate two central bank policy rate cuts before year-end

ING
Iris Pang

Taiwan: Export growth positive but too soon to celebrate

June data shows that Taiwan's import and export growth has turned positive again. We believe that structural issues tied to the smart phone product cycle and weak demand for these products will continue to impact Taiwan's manufacturing and export sector. Can 5G help the economy?

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