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ING
Hendrik Wiersma ...
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Job Veenendaal
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/CSPP2, Swedbank, Unilever and Telecom Italia

Strategy: Emperor Draghi's not naked, the ECB has corporates (and banks) in CSPP2

ING
Hendrik Wiersma ...
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Job Veenendaal
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Deutsche Bank and Deutsche Telekom

A Deutsche Bank restructuring would not yet change our view on the bank

ING
Hendrik Wiersma ...
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Job Veenendaal
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Carlsberg, AT&T and Alliander

Carlsberg issues new 10yr bond, we see more value in the 2024 issue

ING
Hendrik Wiersma ...
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Job Veenendaal
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/KPN, Telefónica Deutschland and EDF

KPN exits Telefónica Deutschland; KPN4.25 3/22 favoured

ING
Hendrik Wiersma ...
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Job Veenendaal
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Tesco, German 5G Auction, Italgas and BP

Tesco 1Q19/20: growth slows against strong comparable. 2023 bond offers value

ING
Nadège Tillier

BP World Energy Statistics/2018 energy consumption up, carbon emissions as well

Following its 2019 Energy Outlook published in February, BP delivered its Statistical Review of World Energy today, providing statistics for full year 2018. Primary energy consumption grew again in 2018, driven by renewables and natural gas. The world also consumed more oil (+1.2% vs 2017) with the Asia Pacific region (+3%), notably Vietnam (+5.8%) and China (+5.1%), showing the biggest surge. A direct consequence of the higher energy demand, worldwide carbon emissions also went up (+2%), despite the Paris Agreement and an overall higher awareness of climate issues.

ING
Hendrik Wiersma ...
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Job Veenendaal
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Unilever, T-Mobile & Sprint, and Uniper

Unilever looking at further acquisitions

ING
Hendrik Wiersma ...
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Job Veenendaal
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/AT&T

AT&T open to merging its satellite-TV division

ING
Nadège Tillier

Fluvius/2018 financials in line, bonds fairly valued/STABLE

Fluvius published its 2018 annual report a few days ago. Fluvius is the result of a merger by absorption of Infrax CVBA by Eandis System Operator CVBA. Both electricity and gas grids companies operate in the Flanders region of Belgium. The IFRS annual report consolidates for Infrax from July 2018 onwards. Looking at bonds valuation, we consider Fluvius' curve to be fairly valued. The name trades slightly tighter than Stedin, also rated A-. We still see value in Elia's senior bonds, which trade c.20bp wider than Fluvius.

ING
Hendrik Wiersma ...
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Job Veenendaal
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Telecom Italia, Vodafone, Iberdrola, EDP and Vattenfall

Telecom Italia and Vodafone to sign final tower deal by summer

ING
Hendrik Wiersma ...
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Job Veenendaal
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Philips, GE, Siemens, Telecom Italia, EDP and Shell

TMT. SEC reported to be investigating Philips, GE and Siemens in China. Telecom Italia's agreement to sell Persidera supportive for spreads. Utilities. China Three Gorges has an eye on EDP do Brazi. l Royal Dutch Shell: Capital Market day is neutral for credit.

ING
Hendrik Wiersma ...
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Job Veenendaal
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/New Issue Preference, Coca-Cola HBC and EnBW

• Weaker credit spreads across the board over the past few weeks with new issue performance also seeing little in the way of joy would indicate that the outperformance against other asset classes is a thing of the past. Indeed the retracement of late 2018 excessive widening created the backdrop for credit outperformance from Jan to Apr in 2019, however valuation was looking rather rich by the end of April and as trade induced growth concerns, Brexit challenges and Italian deficit concerns have returned to the forefront spreads have softened. Indeed mutual fund flows too are less convincing, st...

ING
Nadège Tillier

Italian Utilities/Growth on the menu

Overall, Italian utilities reported 1Q19 results that confirmed their good form. Companies are growing according to their plans. Pure network operators have shown stable metrics development. Multi utilities benefited from overall strong business conditions and high electricity tariffs in the country. After a measured increase in capital expenditure in the last four years, the majority of the companies will speed up investments as disclosed in their latest business plans. For those involved in gas distribution, the tenders' process should gather in pace and contribute to the overall surge of ca...

ING
Hendrik Wiersma ...
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Job Veenendaal
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Casino, Deutsche Bank, DT, ArcelorMittal, EDF

Casino (COFP) was downgraded by two notches by S&P to B with CreditWatch negative after Casino's parent Rallye (RALFP) entered into safeguard proceedings last week. Although Casino itself is not part of the proceedings, S&P believes there is significant event risk for Casino and its creditors. S&P also believes the proceedings raise questions about the reliability of the group's governance standards. The CreditWatch negative reflects significant uncertainties that could arise from Rallye entering safeguard proceedings and the impact that this could have on Casino, directly or indirectly.

ING
Hendrik Wiersma ...
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Job Veenendaal
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Engie and ArcelorMittal

In April, the consortium led by Engie (ENGIFP) and Caisse de Dépôt et Placement du Québec (CADEPO) made the best offer for the acquisition of 90% of Petrobras' (PETBRA) TAG gas pipelines in Brazil. The deal amounted to $8.6bn and received the approval of the Brazilian antitrust regulator. Yesterday, the Brazilian Supreme Court suspended the sale of Petrobras' assets. The main reason is an ongoing dispute on the sale of public assets to foreign private companies. TAG transports natural gas across the country with a gas pipeline network of 4,500km. From a credit perspective, we view the possibil...

ING
Hendrik Wiersma ...
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Job Veenendaal
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Telefónica to continue divesting assets

Telefónica (TELEFO) will continue to review its portfolio and this will result in further divestments, according to the company's COO Angel Vila to La Vanguardia and cited by Bloomberg.

ING
Job Veenendaal ...
  • Nadège Tillier

Commissioned Research: BayWa AG - Issuer profile

BayWa AG was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Munich, Germany. The BayWa registered share is traded on the regulated market/Prime Standard regulated market on the Frankfurt am Main and Munich stock exchanges and in the XETRA trading system.

ING
Hendrik Wiersma ...
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Job Veenendaal
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Casino, Deutsche Bank and National Grid

Rallye (RALFP), the parent company of Casino (COFP), issued a press release yesterday, stating it has requested and obtained the opening of safeguard proceedings, initially for a period of 6 months, but potentially up to 18 months. Rallye's subsidiaries Cobivia and HMB, as well as parent companies Foncière Euris, Finatis and Euris are included in the proceedings. The safeguard proceedings allow the companies to restructure their debt in a stable environment. Debt can be rescheduled over a period of 10 years. Debt-related payments will be suspended during the proceedings. Rallye currently has n...

ING
Hendrik Wiersma ...
  • Jeroen van den Broek
  • Job Veenendaal
  • Nadège Tillier
  • Suvi Platerink Kosonen

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/UniCredit, Commerzbank and Deutsche Telekom

UniCredit (UCGIM) plans to offload a €5bn non-performing loans portfolio to accelerate its balance sheet clean-up according to Bloomberg citing people familiar with the matter. The bank is looking into using a structured transaction in one or more tranches with the aim to complete the deal by the end of the year.

ING
Nadège Tillier

Elia/Capital increase approved – we see value/STABLE

Yesterday's annual general meeting saw Elia shareholders approve a capital increase of €435m, at the high end of the initial guidance of €350-450m. The capital increase will be executed via a public offering with preference rights for shareholders. The board of directors will decide later on the number of shares and issuance price. During the meeting, the 2018 annual results were approved as well as a €1.66 dividend pay-out per share. From a valuation point of view, we think that Elia's senior curve still offers value. Elia's bonds trade c.22bp wider on average than direct Belgian peer Fluvius...

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