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Discover what ING analysts are looking for next week in our global economic calendars
Payrolls growth is slowing but wages are picking up, which underlines the difficult decision facing the Federal Reserve. The risks from a deteriorating international backdrop and a manufacturing recession mean we still look for September and December rate cuts
The real-world impact of the failure of politicians to agree on cross-border ‘deals' is becoming obvious. Financial markets don't like it, and investors are shifting into safe havens. With business confidence sagging, pressure is on for politicians to get deals done. Read more in our latest economic update
Manufacturing may well be in a recession, but more domestic and consumer-orientated sectors are performing well. In such an environment the Federal Reserve will remain reluctant to deliver the scale of easing demanded by the President and priced by markets
The Bank of Canada has left interest rates unchanged as widely expected, but the accompanying statement includes a dovish shift that reinforces our view that they are gearing up for a rate cut
A strong US consumer and weak global growth means that the US trade deficit remains wide, but the fact that the US-China deficit is narrowing rapidly will boost President Trump's argument that being tough in negotiations yields results
The US ISM manufacturing index has historically been one of the best lead economic indicators and the fact all the main components are now in contraction territory is a major cause for concern. With new tariffs coming into effect and the global backdrop continuing to weaken the threat of a recession is rising, which will force the Fed into further rate cuts
Canada's economy performed well in 2Q19, but it is heavily exposed to global growth and trade, which hints at weaker activity ahead. The central bank has acted swiftly before and we think they could use next week's meeting to lay the groundwork for an October interest rate cut. CAD is likely to stay on the back foot, but the long-term outlook remains positive
Please see ING's August 2019 Forecasts
The market is worried about a recession. For now we don't see it, but there is a chance the fear becomes self-fulfilling
The market is rightly focused on worrying trade and global growth signals, but inflation should not be completely ignored. If trade tensions do ease there is significant scope for a market re-pricing of Federal Reserve rate cuts
Weakening private sector employment at a time of heightened trade tensions and falling commodity prices is not a great story for Canada. The likelihood of rate cuts is increasing
President Trump is ratcheting up the pressure on the Fed to support his efforts on extracting concessions from China on trade. Policymakers appear reluctant, but market moves and other central bank actions look set to give them a nudge. This is why we think it looks increasingly likely that the Fed will step in with two 25bp cuts in September and December
US GDP growth looks set to have slowed sharply in the second quarter of this year to 1.8% from 3.1% in1Q19. However, this reflects trade and inventory idiosyncrasies. It is not a broader deceleration that would warrant an aggressive Federal Reserve response
Households have the cash and the confidence to spend, limiting the need for aggressive interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve
With Prime Ministerial candidates promising tax cuts and a spending splurge the latest fiscal numbers offer something of a reality check to their plans
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