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Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

• A number of Healthcare names are pulling back to logical support areas. (ex. EW, EGRX, ARWR, RGEN, LCI, CTLT, and PBH) • The Technology Sector continues to have a number of technically attractive names that are pulling back to support levels. (ex. FORM, MKSI, NVDA, MU, SYNA, ANSS, COHR, and WDC) • Defensive Sectors such REITs and Consumer Staples remain leadership. (ex. LW, PEP, UHT, NSA, COR, and LSI)

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

After failing to break above resistance, global equities (MSCI ACWI) have had a rough start to the third quarter. Tuesday's 10-year low reading for September's US ISM manufacturing index further spooked investors and reignited global growth concerns. Continued weakness in global manufacturing and the US-EU tariff escalation raises the potential for a breakdown in global equities, however our outlook remains neutral as long as the MSCI ACWI remains confined to its horizontal range. • Prevailing trends continue for major indexes. Trends that began in March/April remain intact. That is, the MSCI...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

One step forward, one step back As the market churns in a one step forward, one step back fashion, we remain in wait-and-see mode as to whether recent improvements in cyclical value areas of the market have staying power. Considering the lack of breakouts or breakdowns in key cyclical areas of the market, our neutral outlook remains intact. • S&P 500, Dow, and S&P Small Cap 600 levels. We see short-term support for each of these indexes at their respective 50-day moving averages (prior resistance from August, turned support)... see charts below. • Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighti...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Int'l Insights: Bullish Stocks

EAFE > EM; Add exposure to Japan Continue to favor EAFE over EM. As long as the U.S. dollar remains elevated, we believe developed international (EAFE) will remain in a leadership position relative to EM (MSCI EM). Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within developed int'l: • Japan, Switzerland, Australia, Canada. Major Japanese indexes have been underperforming for nearly two years but are making bullish price and RS inflections and exhibit early signs of bottoming. Switzerland, Australia, and Canada are all trading at multi-year highs and are among the most attractive coun...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Squarely in the neutral camp At this point in time the major global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, EM) have failed to break above their respective resistance levels, leaving us squarely in the neutral camp. • We need to see more from cyclical value. We believe the aforementioned major global indexes are likely to remain below resistance or have limited upside unless and until we see more definitive signs of bottoming within cyclical value areas of the market (e.g., Materials, Energy, banks, major autos & parts, etc.)... see page 2. • Indicators supportive of a neutral outlook. Sever...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks

Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Treasury yields tell the tale As Treasury yields began moving off the lows on 9/5/19 due to a variety of factors, investors took profits from large-caps, growth, and defensives and migrated to small-caps, value, and cyclicals. This was a shift from areas of obvious leadership to areas that had been left for dead, something that, if it can continue, would greatly improve the prospects of a broad-based move higher. However, a primary concern of ours is whether this shift has staying power. As we highlight below, we believe the jury is still out, leaving our overall neutral outlook intact. • Tr...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Energy to Market Weight Better economic data and optimism surrounding US-China trade (notwithstanding last Friday) has put a floor under Treasury yields and has led investors to take profits from large-caps, growth, and defensive areas of the market and migrate to small-caps, value, and cyclical segments of the market. While this shift has been a welcomed sight for the prospects of a broad-based move higher, several key risk-on areas of the market have thus far failed to break above resistance, leaving our overall neutral outlook intact. • Upgrading Energy. We are upgrading Energy...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Macro Vision: U.S. Equity Strategy

STRATEGY: Rotations in Progress As we write this, fears of a reprisal attack by Saudi Arabia are being priced into the markets. Oil is surging on the back of the largest ever supply disruption in history. Investment managers are likely caught on the wrong side of the Energy Sector move and were very underweight as the Sector's performance has, year-to-date, been nothing but an anchor on performance. The age old adage of “parabolic moves often don't end well” can be applied to those areas going in either direction, up or down. These events as we have seen throughout history often mark a top...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

S&P 500 consolidating despite negative signals We remain cautious as there continues to be several new or persisting negative signals which tell us that upside is likely to be muted from here -- barring improvements. At the same time we are not seeing widespread breakdowns and the major averages are still consolidating within a 1-month horizontal range. As long as this consolidation continues, a neutral outlook is appropriate. • Sector Relative Strength Rankings & Weighting Recommendations. Defensives (Staples, Utilities, Real Estate) notched new YTD RS highs yet again over the past week. Th...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Testing 1-month resistance All of the major averages (S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow) are testing key 1-month resistance levels. This test of short-term resistance comes despite new developments which continue to be of the negative variety, making it a logical area for the market to retreat. As a result, we remain cautious with an overall neutral outlook. • Negative developments continue. Copper exhibits signs of breaking down below the key $2.54-2.55 level, the small- vs. large-cap ratio (IJR/SPY) is hitting fresh lows after an attempted bottom, and Utilities (XLU) notched a new YTD RS high last ...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks

Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Buoyed by outperformance in the US, the MSCI ACWI is the only broad global index that has yet to make a lower low relative to the lows set in June. This deterioration for ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM, continued bearish-leaning indicators, and continued downside volatility in bond yields leads us to remain cautious and concerned that global equities remain vulnerable and could be poised for additional weakness moving forward. • Additional bearish-leaning developments. In addition to the concerns we have highlighted over the past several weeks, new negative developments continue to plague the glob...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

Key Points: • Despite weakness in a number of Consumer Discretionary stocks, there are a number of names that remain attractive (ex. KBH, PHM, SIX, RRGB, WEN, SHAK, DNKN, and WMT) • The Consumer Staples Sector continues to have a number of leadership names. (ex. HSY, K, SAFM, VGR, and CHD) • Gold remains a leadership area of the market. (ex. RGLD, and NEM) • REITs and Utilities are increasingly moving as market leadership. (ex. OHI, WELL, LTC, DEA, IRT, EQR, UDR, ADC, EXR, CONE, NSA, AMT, NEE, IDA, DUK, and ES)

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Caution remains warranted We have noted several times throughout the month of August that key support levels were being tested for global equities (8/6 Compass and 8/8, 8/15, & 8/22 Int'l Compass), and while there has yet to be a decisive breakdown, as time has passed there has been new negative developments which lead us to be even more cautious. This past Friday's test of support is no different, and we believe the market is more vulnerable to a breakdown than it has been at any other point this year. Below we highlight the new concerning developments which lead us to believe the market rem...

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