In This Edition:
Following last month’s in-depth analysis of Professor Darien Huang’s academic paper on the deterministic value of the Gold/Platinum ratio for predicting the trend of the stock market, we examine the merit of renewed forecasts for an end to the secular-bull uptrend.
We already know that Nobel Laureate winner Professor Robert Shiller is calling for a major stock market peak because the CAPE ratio has just equalled levels of those reached at the pre-crash highs of 1929. Similar calls for the end of a secular-bull uptrend have come from economists using the S&P 500’s Price-Sales ratio so we’re also digging deep to see what this data-set tells us. But something more impactful has been brought to our attention – mainstream Elliott Wave protagonists are also forecasting the end of the secular-bull market uptrend, sometime before year-end, 2017. Is this just coincidence?
The analysis rests upon several points but the most prominent aspect examines the recurrence effect of the 17-year cycle. We revisit our own cycle analysis of the last several years which in contrast, prolongs the next peak into late-2019. Furthermore, we reiterate December ‘14’s forecasts for a 40,000 Dow Jones target and how the ‘RE-SYNCHRONISATION’ process of January/February ’16 will prolong global uptrends into the end of the current decade.