Peter Goodburn
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COMMODITY OUTLOOK - Iron Ore set to Accelerate Lower - Base Metals to Follow Downturn - Energy consolidation within Uptrend

In This Edition: This month’s report combines our usual portfolio of Base & Precious Metals/Energy with an updated look at the pattern development of Iron Ore prices. Alongside Copper, Iron Ore is one of the cornerstone commodities that offers a glimpse into the future growth/decay development of the global economy, its alternating peaks and troughs. What we see supports last month’s report which hinted of an important interim peak in Base Metal prices. Following Copper’s -8.6% decline during September, last month’s rally ended up breaking to a higher high. This doesn’t negate the effect of an approaching peak within the medium-term uptrend, it simply prolongs it. But time is running out. Iron Ore resumed its downtrend last February and it’s now set to accelerate just as Base Metals form corresponding peaks, positioning themselves to begin a multi-month corrective declines.

In precious metals, Gold and Silver remain in a negative run since forming highs last September. Declines are expected to extending through November and perhaps December, but these are the final sequences of counter-trend patterns. They turn bullish afterwards, with advances breaking to higher-highs.

The energy sector is pulling lower thorough the XLE Energy index but overall, the outlook remains very positive. The underlying Crude and Brent oil contracts are approaching interim highs following advances from the late-June lows. Should resistance be confirmed, it will signal a 2-month retracement decline of around -19% per cent. But should Crude oil sustain a break above this year’s high of 55.24, then this downside risk will be averted. 


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Copper, Lead, Zinc, Nickel, Aluminium, Gold, Silver, Crude Oil, Brent Oil

WaveTrack International
WaveTrack International

​WaveTrack International provides bespoke intelligence for Asset Management Corporations, Pension Funds, Total/Absolute-Return/ Hedge Funds, Sovereign Wealth Funds, Corporate and Market-Making/Trading institutions. The ‘deterministic’ qualities of the methodology used often translates into results that are dynamic and – outside consensus estimates. This is suitable for individuals who seek unbiased market research which is ‘technical, quantitative and strategic’ for their investment decision making. WaveTrack’s analysis and research is especially relevant for medium/long-term investment strategies.

Peter Goodburn

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