Vetiva Capital Management

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Ticker Underlying First Report Latest Report
10CM ZAE000042164 MTN Group Ltd. 2018/03/26 2018/03/26
A1C8BZ NGDANGCEM008 Dangote Cement PLC 2016/04/26 2018/10/05
ACCESS NGACCESS0005 Access Bank 2016/03/18 2018/11/23
AP NGAP00000004 Forte Oil 2017/10/16 2018/10/05
CCNN NGCCNN000003 Cement Company of Northern Nigeria PLC 2016/03/30 2018/09/20
CILEASING NGCILEASING2 C&I Leasing PLC 2018/07/06 2018/07/06
DANGSUGAR NGDANSUGAR02 Dangote Sugar Refinery Plc 2016/03/18 2018/11/08
DIAMONDBNK NGDIAMONDBK6 Diamond Bank Nigeria Plc 2016/04/28 2018/12/07
ETERNAOIL NGETERNAOIL1 ETERNA OIL AND GAS PLC 2018/08/24 2018/08/27
FCMB NGFCMB000005 First City Monument Bank Plc 2016/08/01 2018/07/27
FIDELITYBK NGFIDELITYB5 Fidelity Bank Plc 2018/08/24 2018/11/07
FIRSTBANK NGFBNH000009 FBN Holdings PLC 2016/04/26 2018/09/13
FLOURMILL NGFLOURMILL0 Flour Mills Nigeria PLC 2016/07/25 2018/12/06
GUARANTY NGGUARANTY06 Guaranty Trust Bank PLC 2016/03/14 2018/11/08
GUINNESS NGGUINNESS07 Guinness Nigeria PLC 2016/03/14 2018/08/31
IBTC NGSTANBIC003 Stanbic IBTC Holding Co 2016/12/23 2018/04/16
JBERGER NGJBERGER009 Julius Berger 2016/03/16 2018/08/01
MOBIL NGMOBIL00007 11 PLC 2016/03/31 2018/04/10
NB NGNB00000005 Nigerian Breweries 2016/04/21 2018/09/05
NESTLE PK0025101012 Nestle Milk Pak Ltd. 2016/03/16 2018/08/01
NIGERINS NGNIGERINS04 Niger Insurance PLC 2018/08/10 2018/08/10
OANDO NGOANDO00002 Oando PLC 2016/08/05 2016/11/07
OKOMUOIL NGOKOMUOIL00 Okomu Oil Palm Co Plc 2016/07/28 2018/05/17
PRESCO NGPRESCO0005 Presco PLC 2018/04/24 2018/05/15
PRESTIGE NGPRESTIGE00 Prestige Assurance Co PLC 2018/07/06 2018/07/09
PZ NGPZ00000005 PZ Cussons Nigeria PLC 2018/09/03 2018/10/03
PZC GB00B19Z1432 PZ Cussons PLC 2018/04/04 2018/04/04
PZCUY US74734H1005 PZ Cussons PLC ADS 2017/10/05 2017/10/05
SEPL NGSEPLAT0008 Seplat Petroleum Development Company 2016/03/30 2018/11/28
SOVRENINS NGSOVRENINS5 Sovereign Trust Insurance Plc 2018/07/13 2018/07/13
TOTAL NGTOTAL00001 Total Nigeria Plc 2016/04/06 2016/10/27
TRANSCORP NGTRANSCORP7 Transnational Corp of Nigeria PLC 2018/07/13 2018/07/16
UACN NGUACN000006 UAC of Nigeria PLC 2016/04/27 2018/12/07
UBA NGUBA0000001 United Bank for Africa Plc 2016/03/15 2018/10/18
UBN NGUBN0000004 Union Bank of Nigeria 2018/09/21 2018/09/28
UNILEVER NGUNILEVER07 Unilever Nigeria PLC 2016/04/15 2018/07/20
UNITYBNK NGUNITYBANK3 Unity Bank PLC 2018/09/27 2018/09/27
WAPCO NGWAPCO00002 Lafarge Africa PLC 2016/03/18 2018/09/14
WEMABANK NGWEMABANK07 Wema Bank PLC 2018/07/18 2018/07/25
XOM US30231G1022 Exxon Mobil Corp. 2018/05/11 2018/05/11
ZENITHBANK NGZENITHBNK9 Zenith Bank Plc 2017/08/11 2018/10/19

Analysts

  • Pabina Yinkere

    Head, Vetiva Research
  • Olalekan Olabode

    Financial Reasearch Analyst Years of Experience: 6
  • Tominiyi Ramon

    Industrial Goods Analyst Years of Experience: 4
  • Michael Famoroti

    Chief Economist Years of Experience: 2
  • Ifedayo Olowoporoku

    Consumer Goods Analyst Years of Experience: 2
  • Onyeka Ijeoma

    Industrial Goods, Agriculture Analyst
  • Vetiva Securities

    N/A
  • Joshua Odebisi

    N/A
Michael Famoroti

Nigeria Q3'18 Trade Report - EGINA FPSO shrinks trade surplus to ₦680 billion

NIGERIA CURRENT ACCOUNT                                                                     EGINA FPSO shrinks trade surplus to ₦680 billion                                                                            Nigeria’s current account surplus came in at ₦0.7 trillion (Q2’18: ₦2.1 trillion)—the weakest since Q2’17—due to the impact of the recorded import of the EGINA FPSO vessel (Floating, Production, Storage, Offloading) in August 2018. Stripping out the value of the FPSO, current account surplus was c.₦1.8 trillion. Overall, exports were up 8% q/q and 36% y/y to ₦4.9 trillion whils...

The Market Today - 11 December 2018

UK PM postpones Brexit vote, seeks Irish border assurances                                                     A vote on the final agreement between the European Union (EU) and United Kingdom on the nature of their future relationship was postponed yesterday amid concerns that the Prime Minister’s proposal would be rejected by the House. The lower house was expected to reject the deal as the agreement has no set timeline for a resolution of the issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The proposal would keep the UK in the Customs Union indefinitely so as to a...

Michael Famoroti

Nigeria Gross Domestic Product - Q3'18: Weak growth momentum continues in Q3

Weak growth momentum continues in Q3                                                                          Nigeria’s economic growth for Q3’18 printed at 1.8% y/y, compared to Vetiva and Consensus forecasts of 1.5% y/y and 1.9% y/y respectively, driven by growth in the non-oil sector as the oil sector contracted 2.8% y/y during the period. The services sector (52% of the economy) led growth with a 2.6% y/y reading, trailed by manufacturing (9% of economy) and agriculture (29% of economy) which both grew at 1.9% y/y. Notably, Q3’17 GDP growth was revised downward from 1.4% y/y to 1.2% y/y,...

Breakfast Report - 10 December, 2018

The Week Ahead                                                                             On November 1, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) issued draft guidelines for the licensing and regulation of Payment Service banks, an initiative the apex bank hopes will help promote financial inclusion in Nigeria. The draft rules allow Telecoms providers amongst others to set up and operate these banks mostly in rural areas. The telcos are expected to leverage on their existing networks and customer base to enhance financial inclusion by facilitating high-volume, low-value transactions in remittance ...

Weekly Market Wrap - 07 December 2018

Flat close for ASI amid mixed trading sessions                                                   Following a 15bps uptick on Friday, the All-Share Index closed nearly flat w/w (-2bps) amidst varied closes through the week. The Consumer Goods sector (d/d: +195bps; w/w:+64bps) was the sole gainer on the day, thanks to advances in  NESTLE (d/d: +466bps) and DANGSUGAR (d/d: +305bps).  While bargain hunting has been more visible on the exchange, notable selling has also persisted across select stocks. Nevertheless, we anticipate a slightly positive start to next week’s trading as investors continu...

Michael Famoroti

Nigeria Gross Domestic Product - Q2'18: Economic Growth Slows Amid Agriculture Concerns

Economic growth slows amid agriculture concerns                                                                          Compared to Vetiva and Consensus estimates of 1.6% and 2.0% respectively, Nigeria’s reported Q2’18 real GDP growth of 1.5% is disappointing. Although our estimate was close to the reported figure, the composition of GDP growth in the period is somewhat surprising. There was a more marked slowdown in agriculture and oil production than we had anticipated, growth in the services sector was robust and the pace of industrial activity slowed, even though we had expected Manufact...

The Market Today - 26 July 2018

CBN plans more private sector credit despite hawkish tune                                                        Having corroborated the argument that a reduction in policy rate would not necessarily translate to increased credit to private sector, owing to structural impediments, the MPC highlighted key steps the CBN should take in a bid to stimulate credit expansion to the economy. Particularly, the Committee hinted that the CBN would provide direct credit intermediation by purchasing commercial papers issued by large corporations – on a need basis – and also implemented a differentiated dy...

Nigeria_Fixed Income Daily: Buoyant liquidity drives investor demand

§In line with recent liquidity mop up stance, CBN conducted OMO auctions in today’s session, offering N100 billion and N50 billion on the 191DTM and 282DTM bills. The CBN eventually sold N198 billion and N7 billion on the 191DTM (effective yield: 19.87%) and 282DTM (effective yield: 20.91%) bills amidst strong subscription numbers. Despite this, Interbank Call rate moderated significantly to 8.21% (previous: 26.67%) on the back of liquidity inflows from today’s bond maturity (c. N581 billion). At the FX interbank market, the naira appreciated N3.69 to close at N313.65. §In today’s session, fix...

Breakfast Report - 10 December, 2018

The Week Ahead                                                                             On November 1, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) issued draft guidelines for the licensing and regulation of Payment Service banks, an initiative the apex bank hopes will help promote financial inclusion in Nigeria. The draft rules allow Telecoms providers amongst others to set up and operate these banks mostly in rural areas. The telcos are expected to leverage on their existing networks and customer base to enhance financial inclusion by facilitating high-volume, low-value transactions in remittance ...

Weekly Market Wrap - 07 December 2018

Flat close for ASI amid mixed trading sessions                                                   Following a 15bps uptick on Friday, the All-Share Index closed nearly flat w/w (-2bps) amidst varied closes through the week. The Consumer Goods sector (d/d: +195bps; w/w:+64bps) was the sole gainer on the day, thanks to advances in  NESTLE (d/d: +466bps) and DANGSUGAR (d/d: +305bps).  While bargain hunting has been more visible on the exchange, notable selling has also persisted across select stocks. Nevertheless, we anticipate a slightly positive start to next week’s trading as investors continu...

The Market Today - 07 December 2018

FEC holds special budget meeting as DMO issues Sukuk                                                               President Buhari is scheduled to chair a special session of the Federal Executive Council today as the members deliberate on the draft 2019 budget. The meeting is expected to produce a completed draft of the 2019 Appropriation Bill which will be forwarded to the National Assembly. According to the earlier approved 2019-2021 Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), the 2019 Budget is expected to come in at a reduced figure compared to the ₦9.1 trillion 2018 Budget as the Federal ...

The Market Today - 06 December 2018

Nigeria under pressure to join OPEC supply cuts                                                              Ahead of the OPEC general meeting in Vienna today, where a possible cut in crude production of up to 1 million bpd will be discussed, President Trump has once again called on OPEC to maintain oil production at current levels, tweeting yesterday that “The world does not want to see, or need, higher oil prices!”. That said, in spite of mounting pressure from the U.S., consensus expect the Saudi Arabia and Russia led OPEC+ to introduce a fresh round of production cuts to support prices. M...

The Market Today - 05 December 2018

Saudi oil minister raises doubts over output cuts Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih, in an interview with Bloomberg made clear that any cuts to OPEC+ oil supply would need to be agreed by all of the members of the group, including non-OPEC allies such as Russia and Kazakhstan. His comments put a somewhat downbeat tone on market sentiment which had previously strengthened following news of an agreement between Russian President Vladmir Putin and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman. Al-Falih clarified that the output cuts had only been agreed “in principle”, also making no guarantees ove...

Michael Famoroti

Nigeria Q3'18 Trade Report - EGINA FPSO shrinks trade surplus to ₦680 billion

NIGERIA CURRENT ACCOUNT                                                                     EGINA FPSO shrinks trade surplus to ₦680 billion                                                                            Nigeria’s current account surplus came in at ₦0.7 trillion (Q2’18: ₦2.1 trillion)—the weakest since Q2’17—due to the impact of the recorded import of the EGINA FPSO vessel (Floating, Production, Storage, Offloading) in August 2018. Stripping out the value of the FPSO, current account surplus was c.₦1.8 trillion. Overall, exports were up 8% q/q and 36% y/y to ₦4.9 trillion whils...

The Market Today - 11 December 2018

UK PM postpones Brexit vote, seeks Irish border assurances                                                     A vote on the final agreement between the European Union (EU) and United Kingdom on the nature of their future relationship was postponed yesterday amid concerns that the Prime Minister’s proposal would be rejected by the House. The lower house was expected to reject the deal as the agreement has no set timeline for a resolution of the issue of the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. The proposal would keep the UK in the Customs Union indefinitely so as to a...

Michael Famoroti

Nigeria Gross Domestic Product - Q3'18: Weak growth momentum continues in Q3

Weak growth momentum continues in Q3                                                                          Nigeria’s economic growth for Q3’18 printed at 1.8% y/y, compared to Vetiva and Consensus forecasts of 1.5% y/y and 1.9% y/y respectively, driven by growth in the non-oil sector as the oil sector contracted 2.8% y/y during the period. The services sector (52% of the economy) led growth with a 2.6% y/y reading, trailed by manufacturing (9% of economy) and agriculture (29% of economy) which both grew at 1.9% y/y. Notably, Q3’17 GDP growth was revised downward from 1.4% y/y to 1.2% y/y,...

Michael Famoroti

October Inflation Review - Easing food price pressure keeps inflation in check

Easing food price pressure keeps inflation in check                                                           Nigeria’s October inflation came in at 11.3% y/y, in line with the September figure and Vetiva estimate, but slightly below Consensus projection of 11.4% y/y. However, month-on-month (m/m) inflation came in lower at 0.7% (September: 0.8%). Looking across the sub-sectors, Food Inflation also came in flat at 13.3% y/y after another sharp fall in m/m food inflation to 0.8%—the lowest level in 2018. The contraction in m/m food inflation can be attributed to the harvest season which has ea...

Michael Famoroti

NIGERIA OCTOBER ECONOMIC REPORT - Government finances take center stage

Government finances take center stage                                                                               October was a relatively muted month for the Nigerian economy as 2019 election season came into focus. Purchasing Managers’ Index data from the Central Bank of Nigeria suggested that the economy expanded at a faster pace in October, with manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMI rising from 56.2 and 56.5 in September to 56.8 and 57.0 in October. However, other variables pointed to underlying economic weaknesses. Annual inflation inched up as base effects weakened, and yields clim...

The Market Today - 27 November 2018

Oteh talks up merits of African Trading and Settlements system                                                Outgoing Vice President and Treasurer of the World Bank, Arunma Oteh urged the African Securities Exchanges Association (ASEA) to encourage the listing of more Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in order to deepen the markets across the continent. At the opening session of the 22nd ASEA conference in Lagos, the outgoing vice president and treasurer urged the association to collaborate and work towards integrating the African Trading and Settlements systems which is due to become ope...

Breakfast Report - 26 November, 2018

The Week Ahead                                                        Brent crude slumped to a 2018 low of $58.80/bbl on Friday amid a sell-off triggered by concerns over excess supply and a weakening global economy. We recall that in October, the Federal Executive Council (FEC) approved a $60/bbl Brent crude benchmark for the 2019 Budget, up from $51/bbl in the 2018 Budget. The Organization for Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is due to meet before the end of the year to discuss a supply cut to support declining prices, whilst U.S. President Donald Trump has hailed the low price of oil ...

Weekly Market Wrap - 23 November 2018

Bourse records a 98bp loss to end the week                                                       Trading in the equity market ended on a negative note this week, with the ASI recording a 98bps d/d and 118 bps w/w loss. Though marginal, the Banking sector (d/d: +28bps; w/w:-75bps) emerged as the sole sector gainer on the day, after gains in  ETI (d/d: +161bps) and GUARANTY (d/d: +111bps) netted off a decline in ZENITHBANK (d/d: -62bps). Meanwhile, the Industrial Goods sector (d/d: -278bps; w/w:-528bps) extended its losses at week close following major losses in DANGCEM (d/d: -250bps; w/w: -418...

The Market Today - 23 November 2018

Campaign season kicks off with manifestos                                                        With the embargo on Presidential campaigns lifted earlier this week, the candidates of the two major political parties have published their manifestos to win over Nigerian voters. Both policy documents have similar themes but purport to undertake different approaches to policy if elected. While the incumbent is in favor of improving the economy through large capital expenditure, funded by debt and an anti-corruption approach, the main opposition prefers to drive Capex through Public-Private Partn...

Michael Famoroti

Monetary Policy Decision - MPC Maintains Status Quo Into 2019

MPC maintains status quo into 2019                                                                       The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) closed 2018 by maintaining the status quo as all eleven attending committee members voted to hold policy levers at their previous levels. Although we anticipated the “HOLD” decision, we are surprised by the unanimity at today’s vote considering three members opted to hike the monetary policy rate by 25bps in September. In particular, fears over near-term inflation and pressure on the exchange rate (FX) had convinced A...

Olalekan Olabode

GUARANTY TRUST BANK PLC H1'18 - Impressive run rate maintained as PAT trumps estimates

Impressive run rate maintained as PAT trumps estimates                                                                            GUARANTY released its H1’18 results, beating already impressive Q1’18 earnings and on track to set another record high profit performance. Particularly, whilst top line grew by a modest 6% y/y to ₦226 billion (Vetiva: ₦219 billion), growth in bottom line was even more impressive, up 14% to ₦95.6 billion – 10% ahead of our ₦86.7 billion estimate. As against the trend observed across a few other banks, performance in the second quarter of the year came in stronger. ...

The Market Today - 24 August 2017

Non-oil income drags August revenue lowerRevenue accruing to the Federation Account Allocation Committee (FAAC) came in at ₦468 billion in August, indicating a decline in revenue from the ₦652 billion shared in July. Notably, oil export sales for the Federation increased by $62 million following a rise in export volumes by 1.20 million barrels. However, non-oil revenue came in lower, driven by weaker Companies Income Tax collection during the period following the expiration of the deadline for filing tax returns. Overall, the Federal Government received ₦193 billion, states received ₦130 billi...

The Market Today - 23 August 2017

Foreign Investments surge in second quarter                                     According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), Nigeria recorded capital imports of $1,792 million in Q2’17, a significant increase from $908 million and $1,042 million recorded in Q1’17 and Q2’16 respectively. We believe the figures do not account for $1.8 billion raised in Eurobonds and Diaspora bonds so far in 2017. Rather, the surge in foreign inflows was driven by strong growth in Foreign Portfolio Inflows (FPI) into equity instruments – rising from $102 million in Q1’17 to $614 million i...

The Market Today - 22 August 2017

Primary market activity surges in the equity market                                    After years of tepid primary issues in the Nigerian capital market, activities have gradually seeped back into the Primary market on the Nigerian stock exchange as companies revisit plans to raise equity. These activities have come in the form of a flurry of rights issues across various key sectors on the exchange. With currency devaluation inflating finance costs on dollar-denominated loans in 2016 coupled with the need to boost capital buffers, companies now look to the primary equity market to provide r...

Breakfast Report - 21 August, 2017

The Week Ahead                                                     In his first public address to the nation since his return to the country, President Buhari underlined that Nigeria’s unity is non-negotiable, charging the national security agencies to build on successes attained in the last two years to ensure peace and safety for all Nigerians. He further reiterated his commitment to tackling prevalent security concerns in the country from factions of Boko Haram, farmer-herdsmen clashes, kidnappings, and ethnic tensions. The President concluded his speech by assuring Nigerians that he was ...

Weekly Market Wrap - 18 August 2017

Market rebounds at week close, ASI still down w/w                                      The NSE ASI recorded a second successive session gain on today, closing 166bps higher, but still shed 335bps over the course of the week on the back of losses recorded at week open. With buying momentum strengthening at week close, particularly on notable banking names, we foresee a positive start to trading next week.                               Stock Watch: After rallying to a five-year high of ₦193.00 at the beginning of the week, NB has lost 6% over the last four sessions to settle at ₦181.02 - sti...

Nigeria Q2'18 Trade Report - Trade Surplus Widens Amid Dip In Petrol Imports

Trade surplus widens amid dip in petrol imports                                                                              Nigeria’s current account surplus improved 8% q/q to ₦2.4 trillion in Q2’18 amid a decline in both exports (5%) and imports (16%). Following this, H1’18 current account surplus came in at ₦4.5 trillion, higher than FY’17 surplus (₦4.0 trillion) and the highest since 2014—pointing to the turnaround in Nigeria’s current account since the 2014 oil price crash.                                                                At ₦2.1 trillion, Q2’18 imports were down 16% q/q,...

The Market Today Report The Market Today - 20 August 2018

GENCOs call for increased support from the FG                                                The Association of Power Generation Companies (APGC) has called for increased support from FG and its agencies to enable the Generating Companies (GENCOs) stay operational. Specifically, the GENCOs called on the FG to settle outstanding invoices for power supplied to the grid, and requested a follow-up financing plan to the existing ₦701 billion Power Assurance Facility (PAF) when it runs out. We note that liquidity has been a persistent challenge to the power generation sector despite last year’s rol...

Breakfast Report - 20 August, 2018

The Week Ahead                                                                             Speaking over the weekend, Dr. Yemi Kale, the Statistician-General of the Federation hinted at a flat GDP growth for Nigeria in Q2’18, citing the challenges in the agriculture sector as a potential impediment to near-term growth. The National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to release Q2’18 GDP figures at the start of next week and we forecast year-on-year growth of 1.6% during the period, down from 2.0% in Q1’18. One driver of this material decline is the moderation in oil production observed in the ...

Weekly Market Wrap - 17 August 2018

Market rallies at week close as Industrials recover                                               After posting ten straight negative closes, the ASI recorded a 187bps rebound at week close following a strong recovery in Indsutrial Goods. This gain was however unable to offset earlier losses with the index recording a 51bps w/w loss. The rebound in the Industrial Goods sector (d/d:+351; +129bps) was solely buoyed by sizable gains in DANGCEM (+680bps). The Consumer Goods sector (d/d:+26bps; w/w -112bps)  also recorded a positive session at week close thanks to DANGFLOUR (+132bps) and UNILEVER ...

Olalekan Olabode

STANBIC IBTC HOLDINGS PLC H1'18 - Another Earnings Beat Sees A Rating Revision To "HOLD"

Another earnings beat sees a rating revision to “HOLD”                                                                               STANBIC released its H1’18 results, posting strong y/y performance following another impressive quarter. Although the run rate recorded in Q2’18 marginally lagged performance from the earlier quarter, H1’18 earnings still came in largely ahead of our estimate as PAT rose 79% y/y to ₦43.1 billion – better than our ₦36.9 billion estimate. Notably, Gross Earnings came in flat q/q at ₦57 billion as a modest 3% q/q rise in Interest Income offset a 6% moderation in No...

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