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Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Triple top? Or pullback opportunity?

Despite U.S.-China tariff escalation and market weakness last week, major indexes - both domestic and foreign - are not yet breaking down. Neither are several important cyclical/risk-on areas of the market. At the same time, they are testing important support levels. Below we highlight several developments we are watching which, if support levels are broken, may alter our positive outlook.

• Markets at logical support: As the S&P 500 Equal Weight index grapples with resistance and the potential for a triple top, it is not yet breaking down on a short-term basis... see charts below. Similarly, several cyclical/risk-on areas of the market have pulled back to logical support at prior breakout levels, suggesting recent weakness may be a normal pullback. On page 2 we highlight key support levels we are watching which, if broken, may result in a more cautious overall outlook.

• High yield spreads; precious metals. High yield spreads are not yet flashing major warning signals, and precious metals (GLD, SLV) are testing short-term downtrend resistance... see page 3.

• Actionable Industry ETFs: SOXX, ITB, KIE, and IAI... see page 10.

• EM and Int'l: EM (EEM, VWO) and developed int'l (EFA, VEA) ETFs are testing critical support levels. Breakdowns would be cause for concern and would put a major damper on risk sentiment... see page 11.

• Actionable int'l ETFs: GREK, HEWG, EWL, and EWS... see page 12.
Underlyings
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A.

Global X MSCI Greece ETF

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Energy ETF

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Financials ETF

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Health Care ETF

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Materials ETF

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Technology ETF

iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Germany ETF

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF

iShares MSCI Switzerland Cappe

iShares silver trust

iShares Trust MSCI EAFE Index Fund

ISHARES U.S. BROKER-DEALERSETF

iShares U.S. Home Construction

Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund

REAL ESTATE SPDR

Select Sector SPDR-Consumer Discretionary

Select Sector SPDR-Consumer Staples

Select Sector SPDR-Financial

Select Sector SPDR-Industrial

Select Sector SPDR-Technology

Select Sector SPDR-Utilities

SPDR Gold Trust

SPDR KBW Insurance ETF

The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund

Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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