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Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
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Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

As market participants attempt to digest the Trump/Xi G20 meeting and resulting trade cease-fire, the S&P 500 remains below logical resistance at 2,964. While a breakout would not be surprising, we believe additional consolidation is the more likely scenario.

• Cyclicals unable to hit new price highs. Helping lead us to believe the market may not be ready to break out is the fact that several key cyclical areas of the market are either making lower highs or remain below resistance. Until we see some breakouts or improvements within cyclical areas we believe additional consolidation is likely... see page 2.

• The case for a breakout. A breakout to new highs is certainly possible due to several positive developments: (1) the U.S. dollar broke below key support, (2) high yield spreads are narrowing, (3) Dr. Copper is holding above support, and (4) cyclical vs. staples ratios are improving... see page 3.

• Sector overweights. Technology (XLK): IT Services remains internal leadership -- overweight/add exposure. Comm. Services (XLC): Select video game stocks appear to be bottoming... see page 4.

• Actionable Industry ETFs: GDX, KIE, XHB, and XAR... see page 10.

• EM and Int'l: We believe both developed (EFA) and EM (EEM) equities are going through a bottoming process, and a weaker U.S. dollar is likely to provide a tailwind for foreign equity markets... see page 11.

• Actionable Int'l ETFs: EWA, ENZL, FEU, HEWG, THD, ERUS, and RSXJ... see pages 12-13.
Underlyings
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A.

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Energy ETF

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Financials ETF

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Health Care ETF

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Materials ETF

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Technology ETF

iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Germany ETF

iShares MSCI Australia ETF

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF

iShares MSCI New Zealand Cappe

iShares MSCI Thailand Capped E

iShares Transportation Average

iShares Trust MSCI EAFE Index Fund

Market Vectors Russia Small-Cap ETF

Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund

REAL ESTATE SPDR

Select Sector SPDR-Consumer Discretionary

Select Sector SPDR-Consumer Staples

Select Sector SPDR-Financial

Select Sector SPDR-Industrial

Select Sector SPDR-Technology

Select Sector SPDR-Utilities

SPDR DJ STOXX 50 Fund

SPDR KBW Insurance ETF

SPDR S&P Aerospace And Defense Fund

SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF

The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund

VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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