Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 226.98 For Business Accounts Only

Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas

Upgrading Staples, Downgrading Energy

We are downgrading our outlook to neutral as a result of several negative developments, including breakdowns for EM (EEM) and China (MCHI, FXI), steep price and RS uptrend violations for Technology (XLK, RYT), improving RS for defensive areas of the market, weakness in “Dr.” copper, and crude oil's breakdown.

• Key levels on S&P 500, U.S. dollar. Our neutral outlook is supported by a consolidating market and a number of mixed technical signals. On the S&P 500 we are watching for support at 2,800 (with secondary support at the 200-day MA) and resistance at the 5/1/19 all-time high of 2,954. On the equal-weighted S&P 500 we are watching for support at the 200-day MA and 4,125. An eventual breakout or breakdown is likely to be the deciding factor as to where the market is headed next. Additionally, we are watching the U.S. dollar for signs of weakening - something we believe can save this market... see pages 2-3.

• Sector Weighting Changes. We are upgrading Staples (XLP) to market weight and downgrading Energy (RYE) to underweight... see charts below and Sector comments on page 5 (Staples) and page 9 (Energy).

• Actionable Industry ETFs: VOX, IGV, IPAY, and ITB... see page 10.

• EM and Int'l: EM equities (EEM, VWO) are breaking down and are poised to test the 2018 lows. Developed int'l (EFA, VEA) ETFs still look as though they are bottoming and are testing critical support levels. Breakdowns would be cause for concern and would put a major damper on risk sentiment... see page 11.

• Actionable Int'l ETFs: FEU, EWG, EWL, EWI, EWA, ENZL, ERUS, and GREK... see pages 12-13.
BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A.

Global X MSCI Greece ETF

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Energy ETF

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Health Care ETF

Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Materials ETF

iShares MSCI Australia ETF

iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF

iShares MSCI Germany ETF

iShares MSCI New Zealand Cappe

iShares MSCI Switzerland Cappe

iShares North American Tech-Software ETF

iShares Trust MSCI EAFE Index Fund

iShares U.S. Home Construction

Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund

PureFunds ISE Mobile Payments ETF


Select Sector SPDR-Consumer Discretionary

Select Sector SPDR-Consumer Staples

Select Sector SPDR-Financial

Select Sector SPDR-Industrial

Select Sector SPDR-Technology

Select Sector SPDR-Utilities


The Communication Services Select Sector SPDR Fund

Vanguard FTSE Developed Markets ETF

Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets

Vanguard Telecommunication Services ETFs

Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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