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Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 221.88 Purchase single report

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Testing 200-day MA support

Generally speaking most major indexes are currently trading at the lower end of their May trading ranges. Barring improving headlines regarding tariffs & trade or comments from the Fed suggesting a potential rate cut on the horizon - both of which would result in a weaker U.S. dollar - we believe global markets are vulnerable to further weakness. With global markets in purgatory, we are watching for support at the all-important 200-day moving averages on the S&P 500, MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE indexes. Breakdowns below these support levels would be problematic and would indicate a new leg lower for global equities... see charts below.

• Actionable Themes: Real Estate Developers and Consumer Staples. The vast majority of our int'l Real Estate Developer Groups are improving in terms of RS, while China & Hong Kong-listed names exhibit actionable pullbacks -- add exposure. Additionally, Consumer Staples remain leadership in China & Europe, and are also showing RS improvement in Japan, Canada, and emerging markets -- add exposure... see pages 2-3 for overviews and pages 7-16 for actionable stocks.

• RS bottoming in Japan? Over the past several weeks we have highlighted an increasing number of attractive Japanese stocks, a trend that continues in today's report. This is indicative of improving breadth in Japan following massive underperformance beginning in December 2018. We are beginning to see EARLY signs of RS bottoms for various Japan indexes... see page 4.

• European and U.S. high yield spreads widening. Both European and U.S. high yield spreads are heading in the wrong direction, leading us to a more cautious outlook... see page 5.

• European/UK Banks and Autos & Parts. The STOXX Europe 600 Banks and Autos & Parts supersectors have pulled back considerably farther than we would like to see... see page 6.
Underlyings
a2 Milk

A2 Milk is principally engaged in the commercialization of a2 Milk™ related products as supported by the ownership of intellectual property that enables the identification of cattle for the production of a2 Milk™. Through its associated companies, Co. is also engaged in the distribution and marketing of a2 Milk™ in Australia and Japan and commercialize the sales and licensing rights for the supply, distribution and marketing of a2 Milk™ in the U.S. Co. products are also sold under the Jalna and Fresha Valley brand names. Co. operates predominantly in New Zealand and Australia.

Beijing Sanyuan Foods Co. Ltd.

Beijing Sanyuan Foods is engaged in the process and sale of dairy products, beverages, foods, raw materials, health foods, and cold food and drink; the manufacture of dairy product and food machineries; the development and manufacture of bio-engineering technology products; the provision of consultation services, accommodation, dining, cold-storage and transportation of self-produced products; and the sale of self-produced products. Co.'s products include house shape fresh milk series, UHT sterilized milk series, yogurt series, bag fresh milk series, milk powder series, Beijing Cheese, various dairy drinks, cold food, palace dairy products.

CA Immobilien Anlagen AG

CA Immobilien Anlagenis a real estate investment company. Co. invests in commercial real estate, comprising hotel, residential, office, industrial, storage space, and logistics. Co. is also active in project development business. Co.'s activities are focused in Austria, Germany and Eastern Europe. Co. has 263 subsidiaries (including 24 joint ventures) in the following countries: Germany, Austria, Hungary, Luxembourg, Bulgaria, Netherlands, Slovakia, Cyprus, Russia, Czech Republic, Poland, Croatia, Ukraine, Romania and Serbia. Co., through its subsidiaries, is engaged in creation of entire urban districts, acquisition of real estate, project development, as well as property renovation.

Castellum AB

Castellum operates as a real estate company in Sweden. Co.'s real estate portfolio is located in five regions: Greater Gothenburg, Oresund Region, Greater Stockholm, Malardalen and Eastern Gotaland. At Dec 31 2013 Co.'s real estate portfolio comprised 626 properties, of which 324 were office/retail properties, 263 were warehouse/industrial properties, 16 were for project, and 23 were undeveloped land.

Cera Sanitaryware

Cera Sanitaryware Limited is engaged in the business of manufacturing, marketing and distribution of sanitaryware, faucetware and trading in tiles and other bathroom products. The Company offers sanitary ware products, including kids range products, wash basins, urinals, cisterns, seat covers, sensors and bath accessories, as well as special needs products, such as cranes, rails and grab bars. The Company also provides sensor taps, basin mixers, showers, bath tub spouts, flush valves and cocks, angle and stop cocks, health faucets, aquamatics, clinical products, waste couplings, concealed parts and chrome plated accessories. It offers wellness products, such as steam shower rooms, shower rooms, shower cubicles, shower partitions, bath tubs, shower panels and pressure pumps. In addition, it offers kitchen sinks; mirrors; personal care products, including soap dispensers, hand dryers, perfume sprayers with remote control and hair dryers; wall and floor tiles, and allied products.

China Overseas Property Holdings (Red Chip)

China Overseas Property Holdings is an investment holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in provision of property management which primarily include services such as security, repair and maintenance, cleaning and garden landscape maintenance; and provision of value-added services which primarily include engineering services and inspection services, repair and maintenance services and equipment upgrade services, to property management companies and online services through Co.'s online to offline platform to the tenants of the properties under its management in Hong Kong, Macau and the People's Republic of China.

Coca-Cola HBC AG

Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Co. produces, sells and distributes an extensive portfolio of non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages. Co.'s business is engaged in producing, selling and distributing non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages under bottlers' agreements with The Coca-Cola Company. In some Territories, Co. also produces, sells, distributes and markets its own brands of juice and Water beverages. In addition, Co. bottles and distributes beer in Bulgaria and Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Co. distributes a selected number of third party premium spirit brands in certain central and eastern European operations.

DoubleDragon Properties

DoubleDragon Properties Corp. is engaged in the business of real estate development. The Company is in the business of developing residential and condominium projects; acquiring by purchase or lease land and interest in land; owning, holding, imposing, promoting, developing, subdividing and managing any land owned, held or occupied by the Company; constructing, managing, administering buildings, such as condominiums, apartments, hotels, restaurants, stores or other structures, and mortgaging, selling, leasing or otherwise disposing land, interests in land and buildings or other structures. The Company's segments include real estate development and real estate investment. It is also involved in marketing and property management activities. The Company's portfolio includes The Skysuites Tower, W.H. Taft Residences, Injap Tower, The Uptown Place, CityMall, Jollibee Tower and FirstHomes. Its subsidiaries include DoubleDragon Sales Corp. and CityMall Commercial Centers Inc., among others.

Emaar Malls Group

Emmi AG

Emmi AG Luzern is a Swiss milk processor. In Switzerland, Co. focuses on the development, production and marketing of a full range of dairy and fresh products as well as the production, ageing and trade of primarily Swiss cheeses. Outside Switzerland, Co. concentrates on brand concepts and specialities in European and North American markets. Co.'s customers are primarily the retail trade, the food service sector and the food industry.

Entra ASA

Entra ASA (Entra) is a Norway-based real estate company. It is engaged in development, letting and management of energy efficient buildings. Its portfolio comprises over 100 buildings with a total area of more than 1.3 million square meters and focus on office real estate in central locations. Entra is also engaged in project and land development activities. Its business is organized into four segments (regions) around Norway's four largest cities: Central Oslo, Greater Oslo, Southern and Western Norway, and Central and Northern Norway. Its strategic areas of concentration include Oslo and surroundings, Bergen, Stavanger and Trondheim. The Company is focused on the public sector, which represents approximately 80% of Entra's customers and tenants. Its legal structure comprises more than 40 property companies and special purpose vehicles (SPVs), a property management company Papirbredden Eiendom AS, several joint ventures and Oslo S Utvikling AS, a property development company.

FABEGE

FirstService Corporation

FirstService is engaged in providing residential property management and other essential property services to residential and commercial customers. FirstService Residential is a full-service property manager and in many markets provides a full range of ancillary services. FirstService Brands provide a range of essential property services to residential and commercial customers in North America through franchise networks and company-owned locations.

Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food (A)

Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company Ltd. is a China-based company, principally engaged in the manufacture and distribution of seasonings. The Company's products portfolio consists of soybean sauces, general sauces, oyster sauces, chicken essence seasonings, vinegar and others, with soybean sauces, general sauces and oyster sauces as its main products. Its general sauces are applied in barbecue sauces, hot pot sauces and others. Its oyster sauces are applied in cooking, salad dressings and others. The Company conducts its businesses mainly within domestic markets.

Frasers Property

Frasers Property is a limited liability and is a full-fledged international real estate company. Co. is engaged in investing, developing and managing properties through three strategic business units, Singapore, Australia and Hospitality. Co. strategies is to achieve sustainable growth through significant development project pipeline, investment properties and fee income; balance manner across geographies and property; and optimise capital productivity throught REIT platforms and active assets management.

Grainger

Grainger is a residential landlord. Co. originates, invests and operates homes to rent across the U.K. As of Sept 30 2016, Co. owned and managed a total of 8,931 homes in Manchester, Leeds, Birmingham, London, and Bristol. Co. has 4,789 private rented sector homes in its portfolio, and 4,142 regulated tenancies and other reversionary assets. Co.'s segments include Residential, Development, Funds and Other.

Guangdong Haid Group (A)

Guangdong Haid Group Co., Limited is a China-based company principally engaged in the production and distribution of feedstuffs. The Company's main products include feedstuffs for aquatic products, livestock and poultry, aquatic animal seedlings, animal health products and biological products, as well as pigs, among others. The Company also provides integrated solutions for breeding and culturing process. The Company distributes its products in domestic market and to overseas markets.

High Liner Foods Inc.

High Liner Foods is a processor and marketer of frozen seafood. Co. is primarily involved in the processing and marketing of prepared and packaged frozen seafood products. Co.'s retail branded products are sold throughout the U.S., Canada and Mexico under the High Liner, Fisher Boy, Mirabel, Sea Cuisine and C. Wirthy & Co. labels, and are available in grocery and club stores. Co. also sells products under the High Liner, Icelandic Seafood and FPI labels to restaurants and institutions and is a supplier of private label frozen seafood products to North American food retailers and foodservice distributors.

HSIL

HSIL Limited is an India-based company, which offers sanitaryware, faucets and glass bottles. The Company's segments include Building products division and Packaging products division. The Building products division's products include sanitaryware, such as Water closets, Wash basins, Pedestals, Squatting pans, Urinals, Cisterns and Bidets; wellness, such as Bath tubs, Shower panels, Shower enclosures and Whirlpools; faucets/showers, such as Showers, Bathroom faucets and Kitchen faucets; Allied products, such as Seat covers and Concealed cisterns, and consumer products, such as Kitchen Appliances (Vents, Chimneys, Waste Crusher System, Hobs and Cooktops), Water Heaters/Geysers, Air Purifier and Kitchen Sink. The Packaging products division's products include Glass Containers, polyethylene terephthalate (PET) Bottles, Security Caps and Closures. The Company's brands include QUEO, Amore, hindware Italian Collection/hindware Art, Benelave, Raasi, moonbow, EVOK, AGI and Garden Polymers.

Hufvudstaden A

Hufvudstaden AB is a property company that owns and manages 30 properties, located in the central parts of Stockholm and Gothenburg, Sweden. Co.'s principal area of business is the ownership, development and management of commercial properties. The holdings comprise commercial properties with office and retail tenants, divided between three business areas: Stockholm City East, Stockholm City West and Gothenburg. The office tenants are to be found in sectors such as banking, finance, law, information technology, media and recruitment. Store tenants include international brands as well as Swedish retailing chains. Co. also carries on its own parking operations through Parkaden AB subsidiary.

Indiabulls Real Estate Ltd.

Indiabull is a retail financial services company based in India with 135 locations spread across 95 cities. Co. offers a full range of financial services and products ranging from Equities and Insurance to wealth management services. Co.'s flagship product, Indiabulls Professional Network?, offers real-time prices, detailed data and news, intelligent analytics, and electronic trading capabilities. Co.'s Client Relationship Managers assists customers with financial planning and investment services. Co. provides full access to all its products and services through multi-channels such as Equities & Derivatives, Indiabulls Equity Analysis?, Depository Services and Insurance.

Ito En Ltd.

ITO EN is engaged in the production and sale of tea-leave products and beverages. Along with its subsidiaries, Co. operates in three business segments: tea leaves and beverages, restaurant, and other. Co.'s products include Japanese tea including mugicha (barley tea) and sobacha (buckwheat tea), vegetable juice, black tea beverages, coffee, Chinese tea, fruit juice, mineral water, other beverages, tea leaves (including tea bags and instant tea products) and supplement. In addition, Co. is engaged in the operation and the franchise of coffee shops under the name of "Tully's Coffee," as well as the production and sales of supplement products in the U.S.

Kenko Mayonnaise

Kenko Mayonnaise is a food manufacturing company. Co. manufactures and sells mayonnaise, dressing, and salad products in Japan and internationally. Co. develops salads that are used at restaurants, bakeries, and convenience stores under the Fashion Delica Foods brand name. Co. also offers various processed egg products, including egg salad for use in sandwiches and snack breads; rolled omelet for lunch boxes; narrowly stripped cooked eggs for use in cold Chinese noodles; and boiled eggs for Japanese Oden soup. In addition, Co. operates Salad Cafe, a retail shop of fresh salad, as well as operates a Website store; manufactures and sells fresh delicatessen for supermarkets; and offers sauces.

Kimberly-Clark de Mexico S.A. de C.V. A

Kimberly-Clark de Mexico and its subsidiaries are engaged in the manufacture and commercialization of disposable products for daily use by consumers within and away-from home, such as: diapers and child care products, feminine pads, incontinence care products, bath tissue, napkins, facial tissue, hand and kitchen towels, wet wipes and health care products. Some of the main brands include: Huggies®, KleenBebe®, Kleenex®, Kimlark®, Petalo®, Cottonelle®, Depend® y Kotex®.

Kotobuki Spirits

Kotobuki Spirits Co., Ltd. is a holding company primarily engaged in the manufacture and sale of confectionery products. The Company operates in seven segments. The KCC segment, Kotobuki Seika segment and Kujuku Island Group segment are primarily engaged in the production and sale of confectionery products under various shop brands. The Tajima Kotobuki segment, Shukurei segment and Sales Subsidiary segment are engaged in the sale of confectionery products. The Others segment is engaged in the operation of nonlife insurance agency business, and the sale of health food. As of March 31, 2015, the Company had 18 subsidiaries.

Kweichow Moutai (A) (SC SH)

Kweichow Moutai is engaged in the manufacture and sale of "Guizhou Moutai" series distilled spirits; manufacture and sale of beverages, food and packaging materials; development of anti-counterfeiting technologies; and research and development of relevant IT products. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is also engaged in the wholesale of agricultural vice-local products, building materials, decoration materials, metal materials, machineries, electronic products, telecommunication products, hardware, rubber products, general merchandises and furniture. Co.'s products include millesimes liquor, gift liquor, common liquor and other liquor series.

Longfor Properties Co Ltd

Longfor Properties Co. is an investment holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is principally engaged in the property development, property investment and property management businesses in the People's Republic of China. Co. has three segments: property development, which develops and sells office premises, commercial and residential properties; property investment, which leases investment properties, which are developed by Co. to generate rental income and to gain from the appreciation in the properties' values in the long term; and property management and related services, which mainly represents the income generated from property management.

Maxell Holidings

Hitachi Maxwell is engaged in the manufacture and sale of batteries and electrical equipment. Energy segments is engaged in the manufacture and sale of lithium ion batteries, coin-shape lithium secondary batteries, lithium primary batteries, button batteries, and power storage devices. Industrial Materials segment is engaged in the manufacture and sale of functional materials, optical parts, precision parts, synthetic resin molded components, mold products, adhesive tapes, RFID systems, and IC cards. Electric and Consumer segment is engaged in the manufacture and sale of projectors, small-sized electrical equipment, healthcare equipment, audio equipment, hard discs, and optical discs.

Mitsubishi Estate Co. Ltd.

Mitsubishi Estate is a real estate company. The Building segment is engaged in the development and leasing of office buildings. The Lifestyle Property segment is engaged in the development, leasing and operation of retail properties. The Residential segment is engaged in the construction and sale of condominiums and single-family houses. The International segment is engaged in the real estate leasing and development in the U.S., U.K. and Asia. The Architectural Design & Engineering segment is engaged in the design and administration of construction and civil engineering projects. Co. also operates hotels and provides real estate investment and brokerage services.

Nomura Real Estate Holdings

Nomura Real Estate Holdings is a holding company. Residential Development segment is engaged in the development and sale of condominiums and detached houses primarily in the Tokyo metropolitan area. Leasing segment is engaged in the development, construction, leasing and management of commercial facilities and office buildings. Investment Management segment provides real estate investment management, advisory and agency services. Property Brokerage and CRE segment provides residential and commercial real estate brokerage services. Property and Facility Management segment is engaged in the management and maintenance of condominiums, office buildings and educational facilities.

Premium Brands Holdings Corp

Premium Brands Holdings is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. owns a broad range of specialty food manufacturing and differentiated food distribution businesses with operations in British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and in Washington State and Nevada, in the United States.

Pruksa Holding

Pruksa Holding Public Company Limited is a Thailand-based holding company. The Company invests in Pruksa Real Estate Public Company Limited, which is engaged in the development of commercial buildings and residential housing development of single-detached houses, townhouses and condominiums. Pruksa Real Estate Public Company Limited develops residential housing projects in Bangkok, Nakhon Pathom, Chonburi and Phuket, as well as overseas projects in India, Vietnam and Maldives.

S IMMO AG

S Immo AG is an Austria-based company engaged in the real estate sector. The Company specializes in the acquisition, letting and sale of properties. Furthermore, It offers real estate project developments, which includes Einsteinova office, Quartier Belvedere Central, and The Mark office project, among others, renovation of existing properties, asset and portfolio management and a range of services, such as facility management and brokerage. The Company's real estate portfolio comprises residential, office, retail and hotel properties. It operates four geographical segments: Austria, Germany, Central Europe (CEE) and Southeastern Europe (SEE). In addition, the Company is a parent of CEE Immobilien GmbH, Hansa Immobilien EOOD, Rega Property Invest sro, Ikaruspark GmbH, SC Societate Dezvoltare Comercial Sudului (SDCS) SRL, Maior Domus Hausverwaltung GmbH, and Eurocenter doo, among others.

Saputo Inc.

Saputo produces, markets, and distributes an array of dairy products including cheese, fluid milk, extended shelf-life milk and cream products, cultured products and dairy ingredients. Co.'s products are sold in several countries under brand names such as Saputo, Alexis de Portneuf, Armstrong, COON, Cracker Barrel*, Dairyland, DairyStar, Friendship Dairies, Frigo Cheese Heads, La Paulina, Milk2Go/Lait's Go, Neilson, Nutrilait, Scotsburn*, Stella, Sungold, Treasure Cave and Woolwich Dairy. Co. operates its business through three sectors, the Canada Sector, the USA Sector and the International Sector.

Sekisui House Ltd.

Sekisui House is a general contractor. Along with its affiliates, Co. operates in nine business segments: custom detached houses, rental housing, remodeling, real estate management fees, houses for sale, condominium, urban redevelopment, overseas, and others. Co. is engaged in construction, sale, purchase, and administration of residential properties; the design, execution, contracting and supervision of construction projects; real estate brokerage; and landscaping. Co.'s contracts include single-family attached and detached houses, multi-family houses, rental houses, condominiums, commercial buildings, dormitories, office buildings, leisure facilities, villas, stores, and other buildings.

Tata Global Beverages

Tata Tea is a holding company based in India. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the cultivation, manufacture, sale and export of tea, instant tea, coffee, instant coffee, pepper and in investment holding operations. Co. has five major brands in the Indian market - Tata Tea, Tetley, Kanan Devan, Chakra Gold and Gemini -- catering to all major consumer segments for tea. Co. has a 100% export-oriented unit (KOSHER & HACCP certified) manufacturing Instant Tea in Munnar, Kerala. The Tata Tea and Tetley portfolios of branded offerings caters specifically to the Australian, Middle East, West Asia, North Africa, Poland, Russia and Kazakhstan markets.

Unite Group PLC

Unite Group is a provider of purpose built student accommodation in the U.K. Co. has two activity lines, Operations and Property. The Operations segment manages rental properties, owned directly by Co. or by joint ventures. The Property business undertakes the acquisition and development of properties.

Universal Robina Corp.

Universal Robina is engaged in a range of food-related businesses. Co. operates within three business segments: the branded consumer food segment which manufactures and distributes a range of salty snacks, chocolates, candies, biscuits, bakery products, beverages, noodles and tomato-based products; the agro-industrial segment, which engages in hog and poultry farming, production and distribution of animal health products and manufacture and distribution of animal feeds, glucose and soya bean products; and the commodity food segment, which engages in sugar milling and refining, flour milling and manufacture and marketing of pasta.

Vonovia SE

Vonovia is a residential real estate company based in Germany. Co. maintains 357,117 residential units and a portfolio worth approximately Euro24.1 billion in cities and regions throughout Germany. Co. manages residential units, garages and parking spaces as well as commercial units. Co. focuses on customer orientation and tenant satisfaction, offering tenants affordable, attractive and livable homes, as well as offering additional real estate-related services. Co.'s residential units are located in contiguous settlements at approximately 770 locations in Germany.

Xinjiang Guannong Fruit & Antler (Group) (A)

Xinjiang GuanNong Fruit & Antler is engaged in the planting, processing, selling and storage of fruit; agriculture comprehensive development; red deer cultivation; selling of electro-mechanical equipment, hardware, general merchandise, construction materials, and chemical and metal materials; providing of transportation services; developing, producing, and selling of packaging products; processing and selling of deer products; importing of raw materials, machinery equipment and spare parts needed for production and research and development. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is also engaged in the processing, producing and selling of fruit jams and fruits juices.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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