Report
Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke
EUR 226.98 For Business Accounts Only

Int'l Macro Vision: Global Equity Strategy

Int'l Equity Strategy

Global equities staged an impressive rally over the first four months of 2019. The nearly unabated advance allowed the broad major indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) to break topside critical 14-month downtrends which began in January 2018. Heading into May, YTD uptrends were ubiquitous and market participants were generally of the belief that a US-China trade deal was a foregone conclusion. Then came Trump's May 5th tweets claiming China was attempting to renegotiate, and that tariffs would increase from 10% to 25%. The tariff escalation contributed to uptrend breakdowns, substantial EM weakness (MSCI EM, MSCI China), widening high yield spreads, plunging bond yields, and outperformance from defensives - all of which led us to a more cautious overall outlook.

Despite these negative developments, we have remained steadfast in our belief that weakness in May has presented an attractive time to add exposure. In our June International Strategy, we highlight various themes which lead to this belief, along with areas of the market where we see actionable opportunities:

• Despite the aforementioned uptrend breakdowns, major indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, S&P 500, STOXX Europe 600, Hang Seng) have all held at critical support levels -- and are bouncing.

• We noted in our Friday 5/31/19 Int'l Compass that, barring improving headlines regarding tariffs & trade or comments from the Fed suggesting rate cut flexibility, that global markets were vulnerable to further weakness and potential breakdowns below critical support levels. Sure enough, support levels held and tariff/trade/Fed developments have been positive. We believe this positive news flow may continue.

• US and European high yield spreads' recent widening trend may be coming to an end, and the 10-year Treasury yield appears to be stabilizing and finding support near 2.04%.

• The US dollar (USD) has formed a rising wedge pattern on the DXY, suggesting an eventual breakdown is likely. We believe a gradual weakening of the USD would aid global risk assets in their march higher.

• “Dr. Copper” and crude oil prices have stabilized at important support levels.

• Generally speaking, RS for defensive areas of the market are near logical resistance while cyclical Sectors (esp. Technology and Consumer Discretionary) remain leadership. One exception is the Consumer Staples Sector, which is leadership throughout Europe, China, and Asia/Pacific (more on Consumer Staples below). Additionally, global Financials appear to be bottoming.

• Actionable opportunities are evident throughout several Sectors. We highlight actionable stocks within our favorite Groups, spanning the Consumer Staples, Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Services, Health Care, and Financial Sectors.
Underlyings
3I Infrastructure Plc

Adidas

ACM Managed Dollar Income Fund is a non-diversified, closed-end management investment company. This closed-end investment fund is designed for investors who seek high current income and capital appreciation. In order to achieve this objective, Co. invests primarily in high-yielding, U.S. and non-U.S. fixed income securities, denominated in U.S. dollars, that it expects to benefit from improving economic and credit fundamentals. Co. may utilize leverage through the investment techniques of reverse repurchase agreements and dollar rolls. As of Sept 30 2007, Co. had total assets of $192,614,325 and investment portfolio totalled $178,906,534.

Autogrill

Autogrill is a provider of food and beverage services for travelers. With its operations in North America, Italy and other European countries such as France, Belgium, Switzerland and Germany, Co. maintained a presence in 30 countries where it managed more than 4,500 points of sale in over 1,200 locations as of Dec 31 2013. Co. operates in the food and beverage and retail sectors at airports, motorway rest stops and railway stations, under contracts known as concessions. Co. provides to its customers a selection, including both proprietary products and concepts (such as Ciao, Bistro, Bubbles, Beaudevin and La Tapenade) and third-party concepts and brands.

Britvic

Britvic operates in the soft drinks manufacturing and distribution industry. Co. manufactures, markets and sells a range of brands in Great Britain (GB), France, Ireland and Brazil. In addition, Co. is the sole bottler for PepsiCo in GB and Ireland, enabling it to sell their range of soft drinks alongside its owned-brands. Co.'s brand categories include: kids, which includes the Fruit Shoot Hydro, Fruit Shoot Hydro Sparkling, and My5 brands; adult, which includes the Purdey's, J2O Spritz, and J2O brands; and family, which includes the Club Orange and MiWadi brands. Co. also has a portfolio of carbonates and still brands including the brands that it bottles and markets on behalf of PepsiCo.

Campari

Davide Campari-Milano is engaged in manufacturing spirits industry with an extensive product portfolio in three business lines: spirits, which includes internationally brands such as Appleton, Campari, Carolans, SKYY vodka and Wild Turkey, as well as brand in local markets including Aperol, Cabo Wabo, Cynar, Frangelico, GlenGrant, Ouzo 12, X-Rated Fusion Liqueur, Zedda Piras, and Brazilian brands Dreher, among others; wines, which main regional brands are Liebfraumilch, Mondoro, Odessa, Riccadonna, Sella&Mosca and Teruzzi&Puthod; and soft drinks, which covers the extended ranges of Crodino and Lemonsoda. Co. operates in 190 countries with registred positions in Europe and the Americas.

Carl Zeiss Meditec AG

Carl Zeiss Meditec is a holding company. Co.'s businesses are focused on two primary areas: Ophthalmology and Microsurgery. In Ophthalmology, Co.'s operations are divided in to two strategic business units: Ophthalmic Systems, which includes a range of laser and diagnostic systems for ophthalmology; and Surgical Ophthalmology, which consists of activities in the field of ophthalmic implants and consumables. In Microsurgery, Co. provides surgical microscopes and visualization solutions, e. g. for ear, nose and throat surgery, or neurosurgery. These products are mainly used to assist with the removal of tumors, as well as the treatment of vascular diseases and functional disorders.

Chinese Gamer International Corp.

Chinese Gamer International is principally engaged in the development and design of network connection platform and related software; as well as the provision of online game services.

Christian Dior S.E

Christian Dior is a holding company engaged in the market of luxury goods. Co., through its subsidiaries, is organized around seven sectors of activity: Design, manufacturing and sale of luxury articles (Christian Dior Couture); Sales of wine and spirits; Manufacturing and distribution of fashion and leather goods; Sales of perfumes and cosmetics; Sales of watches and jewelry; Selective retailing and Other activities (Newspapers and real estate). Co.'s revenues can be divided geographically between four groups: Europe, USA, Asia and Other countries. Co.'s products are sold through wholesale and retail distributors as well as through company-owned stores or franchised outlets.

Coca-Cola HBC AG

Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Co. produces, sells and distributes an extensive portfolio of non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages. Co.'s business is engaged in producing, selling and distributing non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages under bottlers' agreements with The Coca-Cola Company. In some Territories, Co. also produces, sells, distributes and markets its own brands of juice and Water beverages. In addition, Co. bottles and distributes beer in Bulgaria and Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Co. distributes a selected number of third party premium spirit brands in certain central and eastern European operations.

Demant

William Demant Holding is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co develops, manufactures and sells products and equipment designed to aid the hearing and communication of individuals. Co. focuses on four areas: Hearing Devices, Diagnostic Instruments, Hearing Implants and Personal Communication. Co.'s hearing devices include Oticon, Bernafon, Sonic, Phonic Ear, and FrontRow. Co.'s Hearing implant consist of Oticon Medical. Co.'s diagnostic instruments include Maico, Interacoustics, Amplivox, Grason-Stadler, MedRx, and Micromedical. Co.'s personal communication consists of Sennheiser Communications.

FUJI SOFT

Fuji Soft is mainly engaged in the development of software and the provision of information services. Along with its affiliates, Co. operates in two principal business segments. The System Integration ("SI") segment is engaged in the development of embedded and control software for machine control and auto-related projects and operation software for various fields, and the provision of product services as well as the system construction, maintenance and operation services. The Facility segment is engaged in the leasing of office buildings. In addition, Co. is engaged in the data entry business, the contact center business and the regeneration medicine business.

GMO Payment Gateway Inc.

GMO Payment Gateway is an agent which connects credit card companies and credit card member stores. Co. primarily provides data processing service of credit-card transaction. Co.'s services include online and offline credit card settlement services, revenue billing services, online settlement data management services and other related services. Co. is also involved in the provision of payment processing services for convenience store receipt, electronic money transaction, and net bank/bank ATM transaction called "Pay-easy" and "PayPal™" transaction services; as well as the provision and operation of applications and online advertising service.

HCL Technologies Ltd.

HCL Technologies is a global IT services company working with clients in the areas that impact and redefine the core of their businesses. Co. focuses on 'transformational outsourcing', underlined by innovation and value creation, offering an integrated portfolio of services including software-led IT solutions, remote infrastructure management, engineering and R&D services and Business services. Co. leverages its extensive global offshore infrastructure and network of offices in 31 countries to provide holistic, multi-service delivery in key industry verticals including Financial Services, Manufacturing, Consumer Services, Public Services and Healthcare & Life sciences.

Hexaware Technologies

Hexaware is a global provider of IT and Process outsourcing services. Co. focuses on maximizing client returns from outsourcing and off-shoring. Co. manages IT applications in real time as well as providing high value services around packaged enterprise applications such as SAP and PeopleSoft. Co. maintains operations in business process outsourcing arena. Co.'s solutions aim to provide value by optimising cost of ownership of technology investments for customers. Co. maintains a client base comprising several Global 1000 organizations. Co.'s global operations are located in North America, Europe and Asia Pacific.

Hite Jinro

Hite Jinro Co. is engaged in the manufacture of alcoholic beverage including distilled spirit, whiskey, ginseng liquor and plum liqueur. Co.'s products are Jinro Gold Soju, Jinro Premium Oak Soju, Jinro Soju (International Brand), Jinro Chamjinisulro Soju and Jinro Korean ginseng liquor-Kee.

Investor AB A

J.D. Wetherspoon PLC

Wetherspoon (J.D.) is engaged in owning and operating pubs and hotels throughout the U.K. and Ireland.

Konami Corp.

Konami Holdings is engaged in the development, publishing, marketing and distribution of video game software products globally for stationary consoles such as Sony PlayStation 2, PlayStation 3, Nintendo Wii, and Microsoft Xbox 360, and for portable consoles such as Sony PlayStation Portable, PlayStation Vita, Nintendo DS and Nintendo 3DS, as well as for use on personal computers. In addition, Co. plans, produces, operates and distributes entertainment content for mobile phone online games. Co. classifies its businesses into four segments: Digital Entertainment, Health & Fitness, Gaming & System, and Amusement.

Kweichow Moutai (A) (SC SH)

Kweichow Moutai is engaged in the manufacture and sale of "Guizhou Moutai" series distilled spirits; manufacture and sale of beverages, food and packaging materials; development of anti-counterfeiting technologies; and research and development of relevant IT products. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is also engaged in the wholesale of agricultural vice-local products, building materials, decoration materials, metal materials, machineries, electronic products, telecommunication products, hardware, rubber products, general merchandises and furniture. Co.'s products include millesimes liquor, gift liquor, common liquor and other liquor series.

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE

LVMH Moet Hennessy Louis Vuitton is a manufacturer and retailer of luxury goods. Co. offers champagne and wines, cognac and spirits, fashion and leather goods, perfumes and cosmetics, watches and jewelery; and is engaged in selective retailing. Its operations are organized along five business segments: Wine and Spirits, Fashion and Leather Goods, Perfumes and Cosmetics, Watches and Jewelery, and Selective Retailing. Co. is also engaged in other activities (Media with Les Echos group, La Samaritaine and Luxury yacht with Royal Van Lent). Some of Co.'s brands are Moet & Chandon, Dom Perignon, Louis Vuitton, Fendi, Donna Karan, Parfums Christian Dior, Guerlain, Parfums Givenchy, and TAG Heuer.

NSD
NSD

NSD is mainly engaged in the provision of information technology services. Co. operates in two business segments. System Solution Services segment is engaged the consulting and development of business systems and software for various industries including financial, manufacturing, telecommunications, and distribution; the operation and maintenance of IT systems; and the sale of packaged software and system equipment. Co. conducts its business in Japan, the U.S. and China. Real Estate Services segment is engaged in the brokerage and leasing of apartments and condominiums.

Open Text Corp.

Open Text is a provider of a suite of software products and services that assist organizations in finding, utilizing, and sharing business information from any device. In addition, Co. provides solutions that facilitate the exchange of information and transactions between supply chain participants, such as manufacturers, retailers, distributors and financial institutions. Co. provides software through on-premise solutions, cloud solutions or a combination of both on-premise and cloud solutions. Co.'s enterprise information management offerings include: content services, business process management, customer experience management, discovery, business network, and analytics.

Oriental Land Co. Ltd.

Oriental Land is engaged in the operation and management of theme parks and hotels as wells as land development activities. Co.'s operations are organized into three segments: theme park, hotel business and other business. The Theme Park segment is engaged in the operation of two Disney theme parks, Tokyo Disneyland and Tokyo DisneySea. The Hotel Business segment is engaged in the operation of three Disney hotels "Disney Ambassador Hotel," "Tokyo DisneySea Hotel MiraCosta" and "Tokyo Disneyland Hotel," as well as non-Disney hotels. The Other Business segment is engaged in the operation of shopping mall "Ikspiari" and monorail system "Disney Resort Line" running within Tokyo Disney Resort.

Recordati

Recordati-Industria Chimica e Farmaceutica is a pharmaceutical group based in Italy. Co.'s operations are divided into two operating segments: pharmaceuticals (and pharmaceutical chemicals) and orphan drugs. Co.'s products include ZANIPRESS®/ZANEXTRA®/LERCAPREL®/LERCARIL®, an antihypertensive drug; ZANIDIP®/CORIFEO®/LERCADIP® (lercanidipine), an antihypertensive drug discovered and developed in Co.'s research laboratories; UROREC® (silodosin), a new drug indicated for the treatment of benign prostatic hyperplasia; and LIVAZO®/ALIPZA® (pitavastatin), a statin for the treatment of dyslipidemia, among others.

Restaurant Brands International

Restaurant Brands International is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged as a quick service restaurant (QSR) company with over 20,000 restaurants in approximately 100 countries and U.S. territories as of Dec 31 2016. Co.'s Tim Hortons® and Burger King® brands have similar franchise business models with complementary daypart mixes. Tim Hortons restaurants are QSRs with a menu that includes coffee, tea, espresso-based hot and cold drinks, baked goods, including donuts, Timbits®, bagels, sandwiches, soups and more. Burger King restaurants are QSRs that feature flame-grilled hamburgers, chicken and other sandwiches, french fries, soft drinks and other food items.

Round One Corp.

Round One is mainly engaged in the leisure business. Along with its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the operation of bowling alleys, amusement, Karaoke boxes, spoor-cha (indoor amusement facilities), as well as billiard tables, batting games, table tennis game, fast food restaurants and other indoor facilities in the country. As of Mar 31 2016, Co. operates 128 stores throughout Japan, as well as 9 stores in the U.S.

Sage Group PLC

Sage Group is a technology provider that assists to manage businesses of all sizes. Co. provides a suite of cloud business management solutions and services including accounting, financials, enterprise management, people, payroll, payments and banking, as well as marketplace apps that can be provisioned to match the exact needs of any business. Co. has three reportable segments in which it operates, being Northern Europe (the U.K. and Ireland), Central and Southern Europe (Germany, Switzerland, Poland, France and Portugal) and NorthAmerica (the U.S., Canada and North America Intacct).

SAP AG

SAP is engaged in selling licenses for software solutions and related support services. Co. derives its revenue from fees charged to its customers for the use of its cloud solutions and for licensing of on-premise software products and solutions. Additional sources of revenue are support, professional services, development, training, and other services. Co. has more than 300,000 customers in over 180 countries. Co.'s SAP HANA platform holds the ability to simplify both the user experience and the overall IT landscape, creating a smaller data footprint, increased system throughput, and easier data processing and operation.

Sartorius Stedim Biotech

Sartorius Stedim Biotech is a provider of equipment and services for the development, quality assurance and production processes of the biopharmaceutical industry. Co.'s solutions cover fermentation, filtration, purification, fluid management and lab technologies and membrane chromatography, including various conventional lab products to biopharmaceutical laboratories. Co.'s technologies, products and services are used to develop and manufacture medications and vaccines using biological methods. Co.'s products covers all upstream and downstream steps in the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients. It specializes in single-use products and offers technical consulting and services.

Schroders PLC

Schroders is a global asset and wealth manager. Co. manages assets on behalf of institutional and retail investors, financial institutions and individuals. Co. has three business segments: Asset Management, which comprises investment management including advisory services, equity products, fixed income securities, multi-asset investments, real estate and alternative asset classes; Wealth Management, which comprises investment management, wealth planning and banking services provided to individuals and charities; and Group, which comprises Co.'s investment capital and treasury management activities. As of Dec 31 2016, Co. had a total of £386.00 billion of assets under management.

SHOPIFY INC

Shopify provides a cloud-based commerce platform designed for small and medium-sized businesses. Merchants use its software to run their business across all of their sales channels, including web, tablet and mobile storefronts, social media storefronts, and brick-and-mortar and pop-up shops. Co. provides a platform for merchants to create an omni-channel experience that helps showcase the merchant's brand and grow its business. Co.'s platform provides merchants with a single view of their business and customers across all of their sales channels and enables them to manage products and inventory, process orders and payments, build customer relationships and leverage analytics and reporting.

Square Enix Holdings

Square Enix Holdings is a holding company that is mainly engaged in the entertainment industry. Co., through its subsidiaries, operates in four business segments. The Digital Entertainment business is engaged in the design, development, sale, licensed sale and operation of digital entertainment contents focusing on computer games. The Amusement segment is engaged in the operation of amusement facilities, the design, development, manufacture, sale and rental of amusement equipment. The Publishing segment is involved in the publication of comic magazines, books and game related books. The Rights Property segment is involved design, production, sale and grant of secondary works.

Standard Life Aberdeen

Standard Life Aberdeen is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is managed into following segments: Aberdeen Standard Investments, which provides a range of investment products and services for individuals and institutional customers through a number of different investment vehicles; Pensions and Savings, which provide a range of long-term savings and investment products to individual and corporate customers in the U.K., Germany, Austria and Ireland; and India and China life, which provides a range of insurance and savings products and comprise Co.'s life insurance associate in India, its life insurance joint venture in China, and wholly owned operations in Hong Kong.

Swire Pacific Ltd. A

Swire Pacific is a holding company. Co. operates in five divisions: property, which is engaged in developing, owning and operating mixed-use, principally commercial properties in Hong Kong and Mainland China; aviation, which comprises investments in the Cathay Pacific group and the Hong Kong Aircraft Engineering Company group; beverages, which manufactures, markets and distributes refreshing soft drinks; marine services, which invest in vessels and equipment and develop its services with a view to providing offshore support to the global oil and gas industry; and Trading & Industrial, which markets and sells internationally branded goods to consumers.

Systena

Systena is mainly engaged in the software development business. Co. is involved in the planning, specification planning, design and development, quality evaluation and management of mobile products; the design and development of a range of corporate systems and portal sites; the provision of IT-related services and IT environments in a single package; the provision of installation support, instruction and help desk functions; the design, development and management of social network game portal site, as well as the operation of non-life insurance agents and vehicles. Co. is also engaged in the provision of various solutions for mobile data communication at ASEAN countries and North America.

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd.

Tata Consultancy Services provide consulting-led integrated portfolio of information technology (IT) and IT-enabled services delivered through a network of multiple locations around the globe. Co.'s full services portfolio consists of IT and Assurance Services, Business Intelligence and Performance Management, Business Process Services, Cloud Services, Connected Marketing Solutions, Consulting, Eco-sustainability Services, Engineering and Industrial Services, Enterprise Security and Risk Management, Enterprise Solutions, iON -Small and Medium Businesses, IT Infrastructure Services, Mobility Products and Services and Platform Solutions.

Tata Global Beverages

Tata Tea is a holding company based in India. Through its subsidiaries, Co. is engaged in the cultivation, manufacture, sale and export of tea, instant tea, coffee, instant coffee, pepper and in investment holding operations. Co. has five major brands in the Indian market - Tata Tea, Tetley, Kanan Devan, Chakra Gold and Gemini -- catering to all major consumer segments for tea. Co. has a 100% export-oriented unit (KOSHER & HACCP certified) manufacturing Instant Tea in Munnar, Kerala. The Tata Tea and Tetley portfolios of branded offerings caters specifically to the Australian, Middle East, West Asia, North Africa, Poland, Russia and Kazakhstan markets.

Temenos Group AG

Temenos is engaged in the development, marketing and sale of banking software systems. Co. is also involved in supporting the implementation of the systems at various client locations around the world as well as in offering help desk support services to existing users of TEMENOS software systems. Co.'s client base consists of banking and other financial services institutions. Co.'s segments include: Product, which is engaged in marketing, licensing and maintaining Co.'s software solutions, including software development fees for requested functionality, as well as providing hosting arrangements; and Services, which represents various implementation services such as consulting and training.

Vifor Pharma AG

Vifor Pharma is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. develops, manufactures and markets pharmaceutical products, runs pharmacies, provides logistical and database services and sets up networks. Pharma markets pharmaceutical iron-based products and offers a broad range of OTC products, prescription products, herbal remedies and parapharmaceutical products. Logistics delivers supplies to pharmacies, physicians, drugstores and hospitals and also handles and coordinates the purchase, sale, warehousing and distribution of products for third parties. Healthcare Information provides ways of networking the healthcare market. Retail runs pharmacies and participates in Coop Vitality.

Provider
Vermilion Research
Vermilion Research

Vermilion Research delivers timely, actionable, and unique research inputs to professional investors. Our research strategists highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various proprietary technical indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. We believe our research methodology, which is not limited by industry sector or market capitalization, enables us to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing all actively traded stocks into coherent sectors, then into logical industry groups. We then apply our proprietary relative strength tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sectors or groups, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. Vermilion offers U.S. and global equity market research products. Vermilion’s research team, which has received numerous awards and accolades, has a combined 70 year of experience in the analysis of investment securities.

Analysts
Dave Nicoski

Ross LaDuke

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