Thailand's KTC is one of few credit card and personal loan companies listed in Asia, with an ROA at 3.9% beating most all banks in the region. As ROA continues to expand, from lowering funding costs, improving recoveries and market share gains, its market capitalisation will surpass US$1 billion. Perhaps its scarcity premium will also expand?
We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements. Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks.
Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics.
Daniel Tabbush has been highly ranked by Asiamoney, Bloomberg and The Asset for his Asian bank analysis, which began more than 20 years ago, and making him the longest standing Head of Asian Bank research in Asia. Tabbush made his name analyzing banks in Thailand, highlighting bad loan risks for Thai banks before and after the Thai Financial Crisis of 1997.
He is known for extolling the unusual positives of Japan’s mega banks in 2005, and the risks likely to hit HSBC from its U.S. subprime loan operations, in 2006. More recently, when most were concerned with nearly all Western banks in late 2008, Tabbush highlighted the positive outlook for Standard Chartered Bank at that time.
He was Head of Asian Bank research for 10 years at the top rated CLSA, overseeing 10 analysts in Asia and coverage of approximately 80 banks. In this role, he spearheaded bank coverage in Japan and Australia. Tabbush was also responsible for research of HSBC and Standard Chartered Bank. Prior to this role, he was the Managing Director of CLSA Securities (Thailand) and its Head of Research. Daniel began his stock-broking career in Thailand in 1993 at Swiss Bank Corp, where his focus was on Thai Banks, after which he joined CLSA in 1996. Daniel grew up in Los Angeles, graduated from University of California, San Diego in Economics, cum laude and with Phi Beta Kappa honors. He lives with his wife and kids in Bangkok and he enjoys running, cooking and playing chess.
Since leaving the stock broking industry in 2012, he has run his Tabbush Report research and consultancy business.
GREATER CHINA Update New World Development (17 HK/BUY/HK$11.18/Target: HK$13.28): Takeaways from management meeting: Well-positioned amid headwinds. Stella International Holdings (1836 HK/BUY/HK$12.26/Target: HK$15.50): 3Q19 on track to margin recovery; still scaling down its retail business. INDONESIA Small/Mid Cap Highlights Aneka Tambang (ANTM IJ/NOT RATED/Rp955): Nickel ore export ban could hit profit. MALAYSIA Sector Plantation: Proposals in Budget 2020 are positive for the plantation sector, especially the B20 biodiesel implementation and lower export duty. Update My EG Services (MYEG MK...
GREATER CHINA Sector Property: Mortgage rates continue to increase in Aug 19. INDONESIA Sector Consumer: Can Indonesian retailers survive the onslaught of e-commerce? MALAYSIA Sector Healthcare: Emerging policies appear to be cost-centric, favouring the government and end consumers. The generic prescription drug segment appears to be the most insulated. Technology: E-government: We see exciting opportunities in Malaysia’s e-immigration space with the initial kick-off of potential multi-billion ringgit contracts as soon as next month. SINGAPORE Update Wilmar International (WIL SP/BUY/S$3.7...
It is a myth that China corporates are deleveraging. There is no indication of this from company data or from bank data. Rather, corporates are re-leveraging. Over the latest full year, total debt of China’s non-financial companies rose dramatically, by US$431 billion. This change is higher than any year in the past five and at 19% growth YoY, it far surpassed the previous three years. Our corporate data shows most growth was with the most distressed companies, those with debt/ebitda at >7x. This makes it important to understand that large banks are giving up corporate loan share, while small ...
The magnitude of Tisco Financial Group’s (TISCO) net interest margin (NIM) expansion is tremendous. Of 72 Asian banks, Tisco’s NIM expansion ranks third, at +108bps from 2015 to 1Q18. The figures are not flattered from being low, where its NIM is now 4.58%, one of the highest in Asia.
The turnaround at Philippine National Bank (PNB) accelerates in 1Q18. Where the bank reinstated its dividend in 2016 it is still early days in its transformation. But 1Q18 data is reassuring. Net interest margins (NIM) rose to 3.44% in 1Q18 from 3.12% last year, and marks a directional change.
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