Report
Aliasgar Shakir

MOSL: SUN TV NETWORK (Buy)-Revenue growth set to take off; Digitization gains accruing

SUN TV Network: Revenue growth set to take off; Digitization gains accruing, finally

(SUNTV IN, Mkt Cap USD6.1b, CMP INR984, TP INR1225, 25% Upside, Buy)

 

  • Subscription revenues are likely to grow at 16% CAGR over FY18-20, led by digitization in Tamil Nadu. We believe there is further upside, driven by higher market share of DTH players, growth in MSO-led subscription revenue following TRAI’s tariff order requiring price parity, as well as growing HD penetration and ARPU increase.
  • Higher viewership on the back of content rejig coupled with shift to commission model should help SUNTV capitalize on potential ad revenue growth. Given the low base of FY17, we expect 14% CAGR over FY18-20.
  • Near doubling of IPL revenue to INR2.8b, driven by substantially higher auction of media rights and fresh inventory driving the radio business bodes well. Steady movie investments should lead RoCE to reach ~33% by FY20.
  • With the growth pillars in place, we believe SUNTV is well poised to witness standalone revenue/PAT CAGR of 16%/24% over FY18-20.
  • With growth revival in the next 2-3 years driving healthy standalone EPS CAGR of 24%, RoE of 33% and steady FCF generation, the stock should continue to offer healthy upside. We value SUNTV at 30x December 2019E EPS (~15% discount to ZEEL), arriving at a TP of INR1,225.
Underlying
Sun TV Network

Sun TV Network Limited is engaged in providing broadcasting services. The Company operates through Media and Entertainment segment. Its geographical segments include India and Others. It is engaged in producing and broadcasting satellite television and radio software programming in the regional languages of South India. It operates television channels in approximately four South Indian languages to viewers in India, and also to viewers in Sri Lanka, Singapore, Malaysia, the United Kingdom, Europe, the Middle East, the United States, Australia, South Africa and Canada. It operates Sun TV channel. Its other satellite channels are Surya TV, Gemini TV and Udaya TV. It is also into the business of frequency modulation (FM) radio broadcasting at Chennai, Coimbatore and Tirunelveli. It also has the license to operate an Indian Premier League franchise Sun Risers Hyderabad. It has presence across various genres, such as general entertainment, movies, music, news, kids, action and life.

Provider
Motilal Oswal
Motilal Oswal

​Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a reputed name in Financial Services and Online Trading with group companies providing services such as Private Wealth Management, Retail Broking and Distribution, Institutional Broking, Asset Management, Investment Banking, Private Equity, Commodity Broking, Currency Broking, Principal Strategies & Home Finance. 

Motilal Oswal Securities is a group company of Motilal Oswal Financial Service Limited which started as a stock trading company and has blossomed into well diversified firm offering a range of financial products and services. Motilal Oswal has built a reputation as the source for best stock trading company and this has taken a wealth of experience, knowledge and expertise, constantly working in tandem, over the years.

Analysts
Aliasgar Shakir

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