Nikhil Gupta

MOSL: ECOSCOPE-Macro data in line with expectations; No reason for the RBI to change its stance

ECOSCOPE: Macro data in line with expectations; No reason for the RBI to change its stance


  • CPI inflation eased marginally to 5.1% in January 2018 from 5.2% in the previous month – in line with our/consensus estimate of 5%/5.1%.
  • Food inflation eased to 4.7%, led by a fall in inflation in fruits & vegetables and sugar & confectionary. Core CPI remained unchanged at 5%, even as inflation in ‘core services’ picked up slightly to 3.8%.
  • IIP rose by a healthy 7.1% in December 2017, higher than our/consensus expectation of +6%. Consumer non-durables and capital goods grew in double-digits, aided by a favourable base, leading to a surge in IIP.
  • We expect inflation to rise to over 6% in 1QFY19 on account of an adverse base effect. However, a high base is likely to pull down CPI inflation closer to ~4% in 2HFY19. Thus, we expect the RBI to look through such statistical effects and maintain status quo through 2018.
Motilal Oswal
Motilal Oswal

​Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd. is a reputed name in Financial Services and Online Trading with group companies providing services such as Private Wealth Management, Retail Broking and Distribution, Institutional Broking, Asset Management, Investment Banking, Private Equity, Commodity Broking, Currency Broking, Principal Strategies & Home Finance. 

Motilal Oswal Securities is a group company of Motilal Oswal Financial Service Limited which started as a stock trading company and has blossomed into well diversified firm offering a range of financial products and services. Motilal Oswal has built a reputation as the source for best stock trading company and this has taken a wealth of experience, knowledge and expertise, constantly working in tandem, over the years.

Nikhil Gupta

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