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ING
Chris Turner ...
  • Petr Krpata, CFA
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Daily FX Strategy/GBP: Back to life, back to MV3

Although it was non-binding, last night's vote that parliament would never countenance a No Deal Brexit at least demonstrates a coalition of the willing – and has supported the GBP. PM May has now artfully returned her MV to today's motion on a short Article 50 extension to 30 June. If passed, MV3 needs to happen before 20 March, such that PM May has a reason to ask the EU for a short delay. Recently we've been suggesting Cable can be volatile in a 1.30-33 range (which it largely has), but if momentum is moving towards either: a) MV3 somehow being passed as Brexiteers are scared into submission or b) a softer Brexit emerging through MV3 failing and alternatives (Norway+, customs union) coming to the fore via indicative votes, then GBP could rally further. Certainly we would not recommend selling GBP, and a Cable move through 1.3350/3400 could trigger more sizable gains.
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Chris Turner

Petr Krpata, CFA

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