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Title Date
UK inflation: shocking computer and Brexit games 2019/08/14
UK: wages surge before vacancies risk crystalises 2019/08/13
UK: GDP contraction before Brexit bifurcation 2019/08/09
Brexit: bimodal forecasts and the BoE 2019/08/06
UK: Jul-19 surveys still in gloomy ranges 2019/08/05
BoE: still hawkish in smooth Brexit scenario 2019/08/01
UK: retail sales not damped by Jun-19 rains 2019/07/18
UK inflation: Jun-19 stability ahead of a slowing 2019/07/17
UK: vacancies reveal risk to recent resilience 2019/07/16
UK: GDP revisions soften 2Q19 weakness 2019/07/10
Brexit: shock simulations for no deal scenario 2019/07/05
UK: surveys support 2Q19 contraction call 2019/07/03
Brexit: no deal risk reaches record highs 2019/07/02
UK: IP signs converge on contraction in 2Q19 2019/07/01
BoE: hawks caught on inconsistencies 2019/06/20
UK: sales damped to a bullish trend in May-19 2019/06/20
UK inflation: broad resilience against May-19 airfares 2019/06/19
Preview: BoE hawks doused by GDP data 2019/06/17
UK: wage revisions provide a hawkish reminder 2019/06/11
UK: GDP fall fades hawkish bias for Bank rate 2019/06/10
UK: surveys stay stagnant in May-19 2019/06/05
UK: oil weighs on 2Q19 more than manufacturing 2019/06/03
UK: consumers keep outspending peers 2019/05/24
Brexit: restacking negotiation teams 2019/05/23
Inflation: Apr-19 surge against down-trend 2019/05/22
UK: above-potential pace through 1Q19 2019/05/14
UK wrap: behind the blinding Brexit mirage 2019/05/07
BoE: rejecting imported stimulus 2019/05/07
UK: PMI payback in Apr-19 still below reality 2019/05/03
BoE: gloomy patience postponing policy response 2019/05/02
UK: manufacturing’s sprightly Spring-19 2019/05/01
Brexit risk still on vacation 2019/04/29
BoE: wakey wakey rise and shine 2019/04/29
UK: BoE confronted by irrepressible consumers 2019/04/18
UK inflation: stable before the Apr-19 surge 2019/04/17
UK: melt-up continues in Feb-19 2019/04/16
Brexit: no soft-touch extension 2019/04/08
UK: PMIs diverge as bias intensifies in Mar-19 2019/04/03
UK: IP indicators boom above peers in Mar-19 2019/04/01
FLASH: BoE keeps its head down in Mar-19 2019/03/21
FLASH: UK retail high as BoBs ignore Brexit lows 2019/03/21
UK inflation: devilish detail extending trends 2019/03/20
FLASH: UK labour market melt-up into 2019 2019/03/19
FLASH: UK denying no deal does not reduce risk 2019/03/13
UK fiscal: waiting while Brexit burns 2019/03/13
UK politics: intransigence meets incompetence 2019/03/12
FLASH: UK GDP resurgence raises 1Q19 forecast 2019/03/12
Preview: UK fiscal Spring Statement beside Brexit 2019/03/11
FLASH: UK PMIs pare some excess pain in Feb-19 2019/03/05
FLASH: UK IP buffeted by energy volatility in 1Q19 2019/03/01
UK politics: showdown postponed again 2019/02/26
UK Cycle: bullish trends stretch before slowing 2019/02/19
FLASH: UK consumer is bullish BoB in Jan-19 2019/02/15
FLASH: UK parliamentary theatrics divorced from deal 2019/02/14
FLASH: UK inflation grinds near its trough in Jan-19 2019/02/13
BoE: extracting the policy option value of delays 2019/02/12
FLASH: UK GDP shrinkage shock in Dec-18 2019/02/11
Preview: UK disinflation regulated for Jan-19 2019/02/08
FLASH: BoE sees gloom before room to raise rates 2019/02/07
FLASH: UK PMIs overstate sour start to 2019 2019/02/05
FLASH: UK IP relies on energy to grow in Jan-19 2019/02/01
Preview: BoE temporarily tolerant of excesses 2019/01/31
Politics: unusual UK unity promotes plan B 2019/01/29
Preview: UK parliamentary pushes on plan B 2019/01/28
UK Cycle: BoE should see a tightening labour market 2019/01/22
FLASH: UK retail sales normalise for end-2018 2019/01/18
FLASH: UK inflation falling fast over 2018 yearend 2019/01/16
UK preview: disinflationary date for Dec-18 2019/01/14
FLASH: UK GDP boosted by consumers in Nov-18 2019/01/11
UK politics: swerve, crash or stop (55:30:15) 2019/01/09
FLASH: UK partially recovers into 2018 yearend 2019/01/04
FLASH: UK PMI builds on inventories in Dec-18 2019/01/02
FLASH: BoE blocked by Brexit uncertainty 2018/12/20
FLASH: UK Nov-18 inflation slows as expected 2018/12/19
Preview: UK disinflation again in Nov-18 2018/12/17
Preview: BoE stuck in the Brexit quagmire 2018/12/14
FLASH: UK's no-confidence vote in May day 2018/12/12
UK cycle: up-skilled surge in tight labour market pay 2018/12/11
FLASH: UK political palliative sought before voting 2018/12/10
FLASH: UK GDP offset vehicle disruption in Oct-18 2018/12/10
FLASH: UK's Nov-18 slowdown may be the trough 2018/12/05
FLASH: UK PMI manu’ partially rebounds in Nov-18 2018/12/03
UK politics: try then try again 2018/11/26
Brexit: warm butter fudge dessert 2018/11/22
FLASH: UK retail’s retreat in Oct-18 offset by revisions 2018/11/15
Brexit: withdrawal deal skews to soft Brexit 2018/11/15
FLASH: surprisingly stable UK inflation in Oct-18 2018/11/14
UK cycle: UR rise in Sep-18 is not disinflationary 2018/11/13
Preview: UK Oct-18 inflation and Q3 labour market 2018/11/12
FLASH: UK GDP growth halving after a 3Q18 surge 2018/11/09
BoE: hiking threshold conditionally met for Feb-19 2018/11/06
FLASH: UK Oct-18 PMIs corroborate Q4 slowdown 2018/11/05
FLASH: BoE temporarily treads water in Nov-18 2018/11/01
FLASH: UK manu’ surveys slow together in Oct-18 2018/11/01
UK Budget: surplus splurged 2018/10/29
Preview: BoE holding out for Brexit news 2018/10/26
Preview: UK splurging the surplus before Brexit 2018/10/25
FLASH: UK sales snap back down to trend in Sep-18 2018/10/18
FLASH: disinflationary UK surprise in Sep-18 2018/10/17
FLASH: hawkish UK hours and wages in Aug-18 2018/10/16

Analysts

  • Philip Rush

    Founder and Chief Economist Years of Experience: 10
Philip Rush

UK inflation: shocking computer and Brexit games

- UK inflation data for Jul-19 were distorted by computer games again, which caused the annual CPI rate to exceed expectations by 0.2pp at 2.1%. Weakness in airfares offset this in the RPI, which slowed to 2.8% (289.5) as forecast. - Computer games prices may hold firm in August, as in 2018, while payback from surprises in clothing and airfares will probably come later amid broader seasonals. - Further falls in the inflation rate towards an October trough remain likely, but the July surprise raises that trough to about 1.7% in my forecast. The outlook beyond that depends on Brexit, where I sti...

Philip Rush

UK: wages surge before vacancies risk crystalises

- Headline labour market data were mixed in Jul-19 as wages surged, supported by positive revision tendencies, but the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%. - Robust employment growth didn’t keep pace with the labour force amid falling vacancies. Some of this was a cohort sampling effect, but softer underlying trends around a no-deal Brexit means I expect further increases in the UR.

Philip Rush

UK: GDP contraction before Brexit bifurcation

- UK GDP disappointed expectations in June as output was flat on the month. Together with downward revisions, output contracted by 0.2% q-o-q in 2Q19. - A similar underlying spread above the surveys was maintained, and I still forecast growth of 0.3% q-o-q in 3Q19. The outlook beyond that bifurcates around Brexit.

Philip Rush

Brexit: bimodal forecasts and the BoE

- The UK’s outlook remains bimodal around Brexit, with shifting probabilities driving market pricing. As the BoE assumes a deal, it has now attempted to adjust for the inconsistent assumptions, with a need to raise rates still shown. - I assume the UK leaves the EU without a deal, which would cause a different set of shocks to those the BoE showed in its Aug-19 Inflation Report. This publication also includes my forecasts for both scenarios until end-2021.

Philip Rush

UK: Jul-19 surveys still in gloomy ranges

- The services PMI exceeded expectations in Jul-19 as it increased by 1.2 to 51.4. That is towards the top of the range achieved since Brexit uncertainty intensified almost a year ago, biasing the survey down in the process. - Other sectoral PMIs are weaker, but the official GDP data now look likely to avoid the small fall implied here. I expect 0.0% q-o-q in 2Q19 before activity improves in Q3, although a no-deal Brexit could blow the UK off-course beyond that.

Philip Rush

UK inflation: shocking computer and Brexit games

- UK inflation data for Jul-19 were distorted by computer games again, which caused the annual CPI rate to exceed expectations by 0.2pp at 2.1%. Weakness in airfares offset this in the RPI, which slowed to 2.8% (289.5) as forecast. - Computer games prices may hold firm in August, as in 2018, while payback from surprises in clothing and airfares will probably come later amid broader seasonals. - Further falls in the inflation rate towards an October trough remain likely, but the July surprise raises that trough to about 1.7% in my forecast. The outlook beyond that depends on Brexit, where I sti...

Philip Rush

UK: wages surge before vacancies risk crystalises

- Headline labour market data were mixed in Jul-19 as wages surged, supported by positive revision tendencies, but the unemployment rate increased to 3.9%. - Robust employment growth didn’t keep pace with the labour force amid falling vacancies. Some of this was a cohort sampling effect, but softer underlying trends around a no-deal Brexit means I expect further increases in the UR.

Philip Rush

UK: GDP contraction before Brexit bifurcation

- UK GDP disappointed expectations in June as output was flat on the month. Together with downward revisions, output contracted by 0.2% q-o-q in 2Q19. - A similar underlying spread above the surveys was maintained, and I still forecast growth of 0.3% q-o-q in 3Q19. The outlook beyond that bifurcates around Brexit.

Philip Rush

Brexit: bimodal forecasts and the BoE

- The UK’s outlook remains bimodal around Brexit, with shifting probabilities driving market pricing. As the BoE assumes a deal, it has now attempted to adjust for the inconsistent assumptions, with a need to raise rates still shown. - I assume the UK leaves the EU without a deal, which would cause a different set of shocks to those the BoE showed in its Aug-19 Inflation Report. This publication also includes my forecasts for both scenarios until end-2021.

Philip Rush

UK: Jul-19 surveys still in gloomy ranges

- The services PMI exceeded expectations in Jul-19 as it increased by 1.2 to 51.4. That is towards the top of the range achieved since Brexit uncertainty intensified almost a year ago, biasing the survey down in the process. - Other sectoral PMIs are weaker, but the official GDP data now look likely to avoid the small fall implied here. I expect 0.0% q-o-q in 2Q19 before activity improves in Q3, although a no-deal Brexit could blow the UK off-course beyond that.

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