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Title Date
UK: BoE confronted by irrepressible consumers 2019/04/18
UK inflation: stable before the Apr-19 surge 2019/04/17
UK: melt-up continues in Feb-19 2019/04/16
Brexit: no soft-touch extension 2019/04/08
UK: PMIs diverge as bias intensifies in Mar-19 2019/04/03
UK: IP indicators boom above peers in Mar-19 2019/04/01
FLASH: BoE keeps its head down in Mar-19 2019/03/21
FLASH: UK retail high as BoBs ignore Brexit lows 2019/03/21
UK inflation: devilish detail extending trends 2019/03/20
FLASH: UK labour market melt-up into 2019 2019/03/19
FLASH: UK denying no deal does not reduce risk 2019/03/13
UK fiscal: waiting while Brexit burns 2019/03/13
UK politics: intransigence meets incompetence 2019/03/12
FLASH: UK GDP resurgence raises 1Q19 forecast 2019/03/12
Preview: UK fiscal Spring Statement beside Brexit 2019/03/11
FLASH: UK PMIs pare some excess pain in Feb-19 2019/03/05
FLASH: UK IP buffeted by energy volatility in 1Q19 2019/03/01
UK politics: showdown postponed again 2019/02/26
UK Cycle: bullish trends stretch before slowing 2019/02/19
FLASH: UK consumer is bullish BoB in Jan-19 2019/02/15
FLASH: UK parliamentary theatrics divorced from deal 2019/02/14
FLASH: UK inflation grinds near its trough in Jan-19 2019/02/13
BoE: extracting the policy option value of delays 2019/02/12
FLASH: UK GDP shrinkage shock in Dec-18 2019/02/11
Preview: UK disinflation regulated for Jan-19 2019/02/08
FLASH: BoE sees gloom before room to raise rates 2019/02/07
FLASH: UK PMIs overstate sour start to 2019 2019/02/05
FLASH: UK IP relies on energy to grow in Jan-19 2019/02/01
Preview: BoE temporarily tolerant of excesses 2019/01/31
Politics: unusual UK unity promotes plan B 2019/01/29
Preview: UK parliamentary pushes on plan B 2019/01/28
UK Cycle: BoE should see a tightening labour market 2019/01/22
FLASH: UK retail sales normalise for end-2018 2019/01/18
FLASH: UK inflation falling fast over 2018 yearend 2019/01/16
UK preview: disinflationary date for Dec-18 2019/01/14
FLASH: UK GDP boosted by consumers in Nov-18 2019/01/11
UK politics: swerve, crash or stop (55:30:15) 2019/01/09
FLASH: UK partially recovers into 2018 yearend 2019/01/04
FLASH: UK PMI builds on inventories in Dec-18 2019/01/02
FLASH: BoE blocked by Brexit uncertainty 2018/12/20
FLASH: UK Nov-18 inflation slows as expected 2018/12/19
Preview: UK disinflation again in Nov-18 2018/12/17
Preview: BoE stuck in the Brexit quagmire 2018/12/14
FLASH: UK's no-confidence vote in May day 2018/12/12
UK cycle: up-skilled surge in tight labour market pay 2018/12/11
FLASH: UK political palliative sought before voting 2018/12/10
FLASH: UK GDP offset vehicle disruption in Oct-18 2018/12/10
FLASH: UK's Nov-18 slowdown may be the trough 2018/12/05
FLASH: UK PMI manu’ partially rebounds in Nov-18 2018/12/03
UK politics: try then try again 2018/11/26
Brexit: warm butter fudge dessert 2018/11/22
FLASH: UK retail’s retreat in Oct-18 offset by revisions 2018/11/15
Brexit: withdrawal deal skews to soft Brexit 2018/11/15
FLASH: surprisingly stable UK inflation in Oct-18 2018/11/14
UK cycle: UR rise in Sep-18 is not disinflationary 2018/11/13
Preview: UK Oct-18 inflation and Q3 labour market 2018/11/12
FLASH: UK GDP growth halving after a 3Q18 surge 2018/11/09
BoE: hiking threshold conditionally met for Feb-19 2018/11/06
FLASH: UK Oct-18 PMIs corroborate Q4 slowdown 2018/11/05
FLASH: BoE temporarily treads water in Nov-18 2018/11/01
FLASH: UK manu’ surveys slow together in Oct-18 2018/11/01
UK Budget: surplus splurged 2018/10/29
Preview: BoE holding out for Brexit news 2018/10/26
Preview: UK splurging the surplus before Brexit 2018/10/25
FLASH: UK sales snap back down to trend in Sep-18 2018/10/18
FLASH: disinflationary UK surprise in Sep-18 2018/10/17
FLASH: hawkish UK hours and wages in Aug-18 2018/10/16
Preview: UK Sep-18 inflation and Aug labour market 2018/10/12
FLASH: UK GDP revisions raise 3Q18 forecast to 0.6% 2018/10/10
UK politics: votes for the people 2018/10/04
FLASH: UK Sep-18 PMIs support 0.5% 3Q18 GDP 2018/10/03
FLASH: UK manu’ PMI overtakes EA in Sep-18 2018/10/01
UK inflation: seasonals still a source of surprise 2018/10/01
Brexit: going blind without eyelids 2018/09/25
FLASH: UK sales stretch surprisingly high in Aug-18 2018/09/20
FLASH: surprise UK inflation surge in Aug-18 2018/09/19
Brexit: steps around the 20 Sep summit 2018/09/18
Preview: slower UK CPI inflation in Aug-18 2018/09/14
FLASH: BoE meets low expectations in Sep-18 2018/09/13
FLASH: UK wages surge beyond BoE forecast in Jul-18 2018/09/11
FLASH: UK 3Q18 GDP growth now tracking 0.5% q-o-q 2018/09/10
Preview: BoE still awaits withdrawal agreement 2018/09/07
UK Wrap: Brexit bifurcation in bullish trends 2018/09/06
FLASH: UK August PMIs reinforce upside risk to 3Q18 2018/09/05
FLASH: UK industry better than manu’ PMI in 3Q18 2018/09/03
FLASH: UK consumer hits new highs in Jul-18 2018/08/16
FLASH: UK inflation rise dressed down in Jul-18 2018/08/15
FLASH: UK UR drop achieves 4% forecast early 2018/08/14
UK preview: UR fall to 4.1% and CPI inflation rise 2018/08/13
FLASH: UK GDP carry-over supporting 3Q18 2018/08/10
BoE: hazardous journey to Feb-19 hike 2018/08/09
FLASH: BoE hikes unanimously in Aug-18 2018/08/02
Preview: BoE hike with contingent next steps 2018/07/26
FLASH: UK consumer resurgence despite Jun-18 dip 2018/07/19
UK inflation: seasonal smash shouldn’t dissuade BoE 2018/07/18
FLASH: UK labour market momentum remains hawkish 2018/07/17
UK Preview: brisk employment and Jun-18 inflation 2018/07/16
FLASH: UK GDP still rebounding toward 0.4% in Q2 2018/07/10
UK politics: leading soft Brexit or bust 2018/07/09
Brexit: bouncing through unstable equilibria 2018/07/05

Analysts

  • Philip Rush

    Founder and Chief Economist Years of Experience: 10
Philip Rush

UK: BoE confronted by irrepressible consumers

- UK retail sales surged further above trend in Mar-19, and now raise upside risks to my already bullish 1Q19 GDP growth forecast of 0.5% q-o-q. - Acute Brexit uncertainty previously presented a high option value of delay, and the BoE did so while pointing to soft survey signals. Hard data have shrugged off the uncertainty shock in spectacular style, and the BoE should do the same soon.

Philip Rush

UK inflation: stable before the Apr-19 surge

- UK inflation data were disappointingly stable, with the CPI at 1.9% and the RPI rate rounding down to 2.44% (index at 288.1). - Airfares and household energy prices are still set to spike inflation up in April by a potentially surprising degree. - The BoE’s February forecasts were not disappointed by the latest outcome and should be revised up in May. My modal forecast remains for an Aug-19 rate hike.

Philip Rush

UK: melt-up continues in Feb-19

- The LFS unemployment rate remained at 3.9% in Feb-19 amid rapid growth in volumes despite Brexit uncertainty. The labour market’s melt-up has stretched levels to unsustainable extremes aided by overly stimulative monetary conditions. - A soft wage impulse in Feb-19 could slow headline wage growth slightly, but there has been a bias towards upwards revisions recently. Hawkish pressure is building.

Philip Rush

Brexit: no soft-touch extension

- The European Council will consider the UK’s latest request for an extension at its 10 April meeting. It is not a soft touch seeking to reward failure, so I expect an extension to be longer and conditional on passing a substantive vote soon. - Fundamental market-relevant factors have changed little over the past fortnight, in my view, despite all the domestic political noise. I still subjectively see the routes and relative probabilities of a deal, no deal, and no Brexit at 45:35:20.

Philip Rush

UK: PMIs diverge as bias intensifies in Mar-19

- The pace of activity growth implied by the services PMI collapsed again in Mar-19 as the index fell by 2.4 points to 48.9. It is biased to overstate the effect of uncertainty, which has intensified recently amid political gridlock. - A slight slowing in comparable sectors remains likely, but I maintain my relatively bullish forecast for 1Q19 GDP growth of 0.4% q-o-q, with 0.0% m-o-m in Feb-19.

Philip Rush

UK: BoE confronted by irrepressible consumers

- UK retail sales surged further above trend in Mar-19, and now raise upside risks to my already bullish 1Q19 GDP growth forecast of 0.5% q-o-q. - Acute Brexit uncertainty previously presented a high option value of delay, and the BoE did so while pointing to soft survey signals. Hard data have shrugged off the uncertainty shock in spectacular style, and the BoE should do the same soon.

Philip Rush

UK inflation: stable before the Apr-19 surge

- UK inflation data were disappointingly stable, with the CPI at 1.9% and the RPI rate rounding down to 2.44% (index at 288.1). - Airfares and household energy prices are still set to spike inflation up in April by a potentially surprising degree. - The BoE’s February forecasts were not disappointed by the latest outcome and should be revised up in May. My modal forecast remains for an Aug-19 rate hike.

Philip Rush

UK: melt-up continues in Feb-19

- The LFS unemployment rate remained at 3.9% in Feb-19 amid rapid growth in volumes despite Brexit uncertainty. The labour market’s melt-up has stretched levels to unsustainable extremes aided by overly stimulative monetary conditions. - A soft wage impulse in Feb-19 could slow headline wage growth slightly, but there has been a bias towards upwards revisions recently. Hawkish pressure is building.

Philip Rush

Brexit: no soft-touch extension

- The European Council will consider the UK’s latest request for an extension at its 10 April meeting. It is not a soft touch seeking to reward failure, so I expect an extension to be longer and conditional on passing a substantive vote soon. - Fundamental market-relevant factors have changed little over the past fortnight, in my view, despite all the domestic political noise. I still subjectively see the routes and relative probabilities of a deal, no deal, and no Brexit at 45:35:20.

Philip Rush

UK: PMIs diverge as bias intensifies in Mar-19

- The pace of activity growth implied by the services PMI collapsed again in Mar-19 as the index fell by 2.4 points to 48.9. It is biased to overstate the effect of uncertainty, which has intensified recently amid political gridlock. - A slight slowing in comparable sectors remains likely, but I maintain my relatively bullish forecast for 1Q19 GDP growth of 0.4% q-o-q, with 0.0% m-o-m in Feb-19.

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