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Coverage

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Title Date
UK inflation: Sep seasonal disappoints again in 2019 2019/10/16
UK: unemployment wobbles near a tipping point 2019/10/15
Brexit: Schrodinger’s cat in Pandora’s box 2019/10/11
UK: GDP forecast raised to 0.5% for 3Q19 2019/10/10
Brexit: no-deal tariffs are no big deal 2019/10/08
Brexit: proposals break political lines for a deal 2019/10/04
UK: uncertainty effect intensifies in Sep-19 2019/10/03
BoE: depressed by political dithering 2019/09/19
UK inflation: mixed shocks boost basis in Aug-19 2019/09/18
UK: labour market enduring political earthquake 2019/09/10
UK: GDP rebound crushes current recession fear 2019/09/09
UK politics: Brexit vs socialism for Sterling 2019/09/04
UK politics: Boris versus Bremain 2019/09/02
UK: IP contracting to 2017 levels in mid-19 2019/09/02
UK inflation: shocking computer and Brexit games 2019/08/14
UK: wages surge before vacancies risk crystalises 2019/08/13
UK: GDP contraction before Brexit bifurcation 2019/08/09
Brexit: bimodal forecasts and the BoE 2019/08/06
UK: Jul-19 surveys still in gloomy ranges 2019/08/05
BoE: still hawkish in smooth Brexit scenario 2019/08/01
UK: retail sales not damped by Jun-19 rains 2019/07/18
UK inflation: Jun-19 stability ahead of a slowing 2019/07/17
UK: vacancies reveal risk to recent resilience 2019/07/16
UK: GDP revisions soften 2Q19 weakness 2019/07/10
Brexit: shock simulations for no deal scenario 2019/07/05
UK: surveys support 2Q19 contraction call 2019/07/03
Brexit: no deal risk reaches record highs 2019/07/02
UK: IP signs converge on contraction in 2Q19 2019/07/01
BoE: hawks caught on inconsistencies 2019/06/20
UK: sales damped to a bullish trend in May-19 2019/06/20
UK inflation: broad resilience against May-19 airfares 2019/06/19
Preview: BoE hawks doused by GDP data 2019/06/17
UK: wage revisions provide a hawkish reminder 2019/06/11
UK: GDP fall fades hawkish bias for Bank rate 2019/06/10
UK: surveys stay stagnant in May-19 2019/06/05
UK: oil weighs on 2Q19 more than manufacturing 2019/06/03
UK: consumers keep outspending peers 2019/05/24
Brexit: restacking negotiation teams 2019/05/23
Inflation: Apr-19 surge against down-trend 2019/05/22
UK: above-potential pace through 1Q19 2019/05/14
UK wrap: behind the blinding Brexit mirage 2019/05/07
BoE: rejecting imported stimulus 2019/05/07
UK: PMI payback in Apr-19 still below reality 2019/05/03
BoE: gloomy patience postponing policy response 2019/05/02
UK: manufacturing’s sprightly Spring-19 2019/05/01
Brexit risk still on vacation 2019/04/29
BoE: wakey wakey rise and shine 2019/04/29
UK: BoE confronted by irrepressible consumers 2019/04/18
UK inflation: stable before the Apr-19 surge 2019/04/17
UK: melt-up continues in Feb-19 2019/04/16
Brexit: no soft-touch extension 2019/04/08
UK: PMIs diverge as bias intensifies in Mar-19 2019/04/03
UK: IP indicators boom above peers in Mar-19 2019/04/01
FLASH: BoE keeps its head down in Mar-19 2019/03/21
FLASH: UK retail high as BoBs ignore Brexit lows 2019/03/21
UK inflation: devilish detail extending trends 2019/03/20
FLASH: UK labour market melt-up into 2019 2019/03/19
FLASH: UK denying no deal does not reduce risk 2019/03/13
UK fiscal: waiting while Brexit burns 2019/03/13
UK politics: intransigence meets incompetence 2019/03/12
FLASH: UK GDP resurgence raises 1Q19 forecast 2019/03/12
Preview: UK fiscal Spring Statement beside Brexit 2019/03/11
FLASH: UK PMIs pare some excess pain in Feb-19 2019/03/05
FLASH: UK IP buffeted by energy volatility in 1Q19 2019/03/01
UK politics: showdown postponed again 2019/02/26
UK Cycle: bullish trends stretch before slowing 2019/02/19
FLASH: UK consumer is bullish BoB in Jan-19 2019/02/15
FLASH: UK parliamentary theatrics divorced from deal 2019/02/14
FLASH: UK inflation grinds near its trough in Jan-19 2019/02/13
BoE: extracting the policy option value of delays 2019/02/12
FLASH: UK GDP shrinkage shock in Dec-18 2019/02/11
Preview: UK disinflation regulated for Jan-19 2019/02/08
FLASH: BoE sees gloom before room to raise rates 2019/02/07
FLASH: UK PMIs overstate sour start to 2019 2019/02/05
FLASH: UK IP relies on energy to grow in Jan-19 2019/02/01
Preview: BoE temporarily tolerant of excesses 2019/01/31
Politics: unusual UK unity promotes plan B 2019/01/29
Preview: UK parliamentary pushes on plan B 2019/01/28
UK Cycle: BoE should see a tightening labour market 2019/01/22
FLASH: UK retail sales normalise for end-2018 2019/01/18
FLASH: UK inflation falling fast over 2018 yearend 2019/01/16
UK preview: disinflationary date for Dec-18 2019/01/14
FLASH: UK GDP boosted by consumers in Nov-18 2019/01/11
UK politics: swerve, crash or stop (55:30:15) 2019/01/09
FLASH: UK partially recovers into 2018 yearend 2019/01/04
FLASH: UK PMI builds on inventories in Dec-18 2019/01/02
FLASH: BoE blocked by Brexit uncertainty 2018/12/20
FLASH: UK Nov-18 inflation slows as expected 2018/12/19
Preview: UK disinflation again in Nov-18 2018/12/17
Preview: BoE stuck in the Brexit quagmire 2018/12/14
FLASH: UK's no-confidence vote in May day 2018/12/12
UK cycle: up-skilled surge in tight labour market pay 2018/12/11
FLASH: UK political palliative sought before voting 2018/12/10
FLASH: UK GDP offset vehicle disruption in Oct-18 2018/12/10
FLASH: UK's Nov-18 slowdown may be the trough 2018/12/05
FLASH: UK PMI manu’ partially rebounds in Nov-18 2018/12/03
UK politics: try then try again 2018/11/26
Brexit: warm butter fudge dessert 2018/11/22
FLASH: UK retail’s retreat in Oct-18 offset by revisions 2018/11/15
Brexit: withdrawal deal skews to soft Brexit 2018/11/15

Analysts

  • Philip Rush

    Founder and Chief Economist Years of Experience: 10
Philip Rush

UK inflation: Sep seasonal disappoints again in 2019

- UK inflation data for Sep-19 disappointed consensus expectations again, consistent with the pattern of previous years amid ongoing shifts in seasonality. - Driving most disappointment was airfares, which carry a higher weight in the RPI than the CPI, so the RPI was more disappointing at 2.4% than the CPI at 1.7%. - October seasonals have been stable, so immediate payback seems unlikely. The slippage in domestic cuts of inflation and the median may prove more concerning to the MPC and contribute dovish pressure to each of the plausible Brexit scenarios.

Philip Rush

UK: unemployment wobbles near a tipping point

- Headline labour market data mostly disappointed in Aug-19 as unemployment rebounded to 3.9% and bonus revisions dragged total pay down to 3.8%. - Ongoing normalisation in the labour force level continues to weigh on employment growth. A no-deal Brexit would probably cause an abrupt rise in the UR, consistent with the decline in vacancies, while a deal should see job listings return.

Philip Rush

Brexit: Schrodinger’s cat in Pandora’s box

- Negotiations about a backstop replacement have intensified following unspecified reassurances from the UK yesterday. Compromise may lie with a convoluted customs partnership and a softer veto for the DUP. - Without knowledge of the new proposal and how reaction functions may have changed, there is no objective basis for making substantial call changes. Like Schrodinger’s cat, the deal is both alive and dead until we can peak at it. - Reaching a deal does not mean the UK leaves the EU with a withdrawal agreement. Revealing the deal unleashes all its perceived sins. Nonetheless, I raise the re...

Philip Rush

UK: GDP forecast raised to 0.5% for 3Q19

- UK GDP growth contracted 0.1% m-o-m in August, but this negativity was more than offset by upside revisions. The services sector has been strengthening despite the dismal surveys, which are biased. - I have raised my forecast for 3Q19 GDP growth by 0.1pp to 0.5% q-o-q, assuming Sep-19 growth of 0.1% m-o-m. A 0.8% m-o-m fall is needed for the BoE’s recently cut forecast of 0.2% q-o-q to be met, which would be extreme and unlikely.

Philip Rush

Brexit: no-deal tariffs are no big deal

- The UK government intends to cut its standard (MFN) tariff schedule if it leaves the EU without a deal. Associated taxes on UK-EU27 trade would be broadly equal. Failure to legislate for this would cause tariff payments to triple. - The average effective tariff rate proposed on imports from the EU27 is half that likely to apply on exports. A 1.5% tariff on EU27 trade is worth about 0.2% on UK consumer prices, consistent with my baseline assumption for a no-deal Brexit.

Philip Rush

UK inflation: Sep seasonal disappoints again in 2019

- UK inflation data for Sep-19 disappointed consensus expectations again, consistent with the pattern of previous years amid ongoing shifts in seasonality. - Driving most disappointment was airfares, which carry a higher weight in the RPI than the CPI, so the RPI was more disappointing at 2.4% than the CPI at 1.7%. - October seasonals have been stable, so immediate payback seems unlikely. The slippage in domestic cuts of inflation and the median may prove more concerning to the MPC and contribute dovish pressure to each of the plausible Brexit scenarios.

Philip Rush

UK: unemployment wobbles near a tipping point

- Headline labour market data mostly disappointed in Aug-19 as unemployment rebounded to 3.9% and bonus revisions dragged total pay down to 3.8%. - Ongoing normalisation in the labour force level continues to weigh on employment growth. A no-deal Brexit would probably cause an abrupt rise in the UR, consistent with the decline in vacancies, while a deal should see job listings return.

Philip Rush

Brexit: Schrodinger’s cat in Pandora’s box

- Negotiations about a backstop replacement have intensified following unspecified reassurances from the UK yesterday. Compromise may lie with a convoluted customs partnership and a softer veto for the DUP. - Without knowledge of the new proposal and how reaction functions may have changed, there is no objective basis for making substantial call changes. Like Schrodinger’s cat, the deal is both alive and dead until we can peak at it. - Reaching a deal does not mean the UK leaves the EU with a withdrawal agreement. Revealing the deal unleashes all its perceived sins. Nonetheless, I raise the re...

Philip Rush

UK: GDP forecast raised to 0.5% for 3Q19

- UK GDP growth contracted 0.1% m-o-m in August, but this negativity was more than offset by upside revisions. The services sector has been strengthening despite the dismal surveys, which are biased. - I have raised my forecast for 3Q19 GDP growth by 0.1pp to 0.5% q-o-q, assuming Sep-19 growth of 0.1% m-o-m. A 0.8% m-o-m fall is needed for the BoE’s recently cut forecast of 0.2% q-o-q to be met, which would be extreme and unlikely.

Philip Rush

Brexit: no-deal tariffs are no big deal

- The UK government intends to cut its standard (MFN) tariff schedule if it leaves the EU without a deal. Associated taxes on UK-EU27 trade would be broadly equal. Failure to legislate for this would cause tariff payments to triple. - The average effective tariff rate proposed on imports from the EU27 is half that likely to apply on exports. A 1.5% tariff on EU27 trade is worth about 0.2% on UK consumer prices, consistent with my baseline assumption for a no-deal Brexit.

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