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Title Date
BoE: hawks caught on inconsistencies 2019/06/20
UK: sales damped to a bullish trend in May-19 2019/06/20
UK inflation: broad resilience against May-19 airfares 2019/06/19
Preview: BoE hawks doused by GDP data 2019/06/17
UK: wage revisions provide a hawkish reminder 2019/06/11
UK: GDP fall fades hawkish bias for Bank rate 2019/06/10
UK: surveys stay stagnant in May-19 2019/06/05
UK: oil weighs on 2Q19 more than manufacturing 2019/06/03
UK: consumers keep outspending peers 2019/05/24
Brexit: restacking negotiation teams 2019/05/23
Inflation: Apr-19 surge against down-trend 2019/05/22
UK: above-potential pace through 1Q19 2019/05/14
UK wrap: behind the blinding Brexit mirage 2019/05/07
BoE: rejecting imported stimulus 2019/05/07
UK: PMI payback in Apr-19 still below reality 2019/05/03
BoE: gloomy patience postponing policy response 2019/05/02
UK: manufacturing’s sprightly Spring-19 2019/05/01
Brexit risk still on vacation 2019/04/29
BoE: wakey wakey rise and shine 2019/04/29
UK: BoE confronted by irrepressible consumers 2019/04/18
UK inflation: stable before the Apr-19 surge 2019/04/17
UK: melt-up continues in Feb-19 2019/04/16
Brexit: no soft-touch extension 2019/04/08
UK: PMIs diverge as bias intensifies in Mar-19 2019/04/03
UK: IP indicators boom above peers in Mar-19 2019/04/01
FLASH: BoE keeps its head down in Mar-19 2019/03/21
FLASH: UK retail high as BoBs ignore Brexit lows 2019/03/21
UK inflation: devilish detail extending trends 2019/03/20
FLASH: UK labour market melt-up into 2019 2019/03/19
FLASH: UK denying no deal does not reduce risk 2019/03/13
UK fiscal: waiting while Brexit burns 2019/03/13
UK politics: intransigence meets incompetence 2019/03/12
FLASH: UK GDP resurgence raises 1Q19 forecast 2019/03/12
Preview: UK fiscal Spring Statement beside Brexit 2019/03/11
FLASH: UK PMIs pare some excess pain in Feb-19 2019/03/05
FLASH: UK IP buffeted by energy volatility in 1Q19 2019/03/01
UK politics: showdown postponed again 2019/02/26
UK Cycle: bullish trends stretch before slowing 2019/02/19
FLASH: UK consumer is bullish BoB in Jan-19 2019/02/15
FLASH: UK parliamentary theatrics divorced from deal 2019/02/14
FLASH: UK inflation grinds near its trough in Jan-19 2019/02/13
BoE: extracting the policy option value of delays 2019/02/12
FLASH: UK GDP shrinkage shock in Dec-18 2019/02/11
Preview: UK disinflation regulated for Jan-19 2019/02/08
FLASH: BoE sees gloom before room to raise rates 2019/02/07
FLASH: UK PMIs overstate sour start to 2019 2019/02/05
FLASH: UK IP relies on energy to grow in Jan-19 2019/02/01
Preview: BoE temporarily tolerant of excesses 2019/01/31
Politics: unusual UK unity promotes plan B 2019/01/29
Preview: UK parliamentary pushes on plan B 2019/01/28
UK Cycle: BoE should see a tightening labour market 2019/01/22
FLASH: UK retail sales normalise for end-2018 2019/01/18
FLASH: UK inflation falling fast over 2018 yearend 2019/01/16
UK preview: disinflationary date for Dec-18 2019/01/14
FLASH: UK GDP boosted by consumers in Nov-18 2019/01/11
UK politics: swerve, crash or stop (55:30:15) 2019/01/09
FLASH: UK partially recovers into 2018 yearend 2019/01/04
FLASH: UK PMI builds on inventories in Dec-18 2019/01/02
FLASH: BoE blocked by Brexit uncertainty 2018/12/20
FLASH: UK Nov-18 inflation slows as expected 2018/12/19
Preview: UK disinflation again in Nov-18 2018/12/17
Preview: BoE stuck in the Brexit quagmire 2018/12/14
FLASH: UK's no-confidence vote in May day 2018/12/12
UK cycle: up-skilled surge in tight labour market pay 2018/12/11
FLASH: UK political palliative sought before voting 2018/12/10
FLASH: UK GDP offset vehicle disruption in Oct-18 2018/12/10
FLASH: UK's Nov-18 slowdown may be the trough 2018/12/05
FLASH: UK PMI manu’ partially rebounds in Nov-18 2018/12/03
UK politics: try then try again 2018/11/26
Brexit: warm butter fudge dessert 2018/11/22
FLASH: UK retail’s retreat in Oct-18 offset by revisions 2018/11/15
Brexit: withdrawal deal skews to soft Brexit 2018/11/15
FLASH: surprisingly stable UK inflation in Oct-18 2018/11/14
UK cycle: UR rise in Sep-18 is not disinflationary 2018/11/13
Preview: UK Oct-18 inflation and Q3 labour market 2018/11/12
FLASH: UK GDP growth halving after a 3Q18 surge 2018/11/09
BoE: hiking threshold conditionally met for Feb-19 2018/11/06
FLASH: UK Oct-18 PMIs corroborate Q4 slowdown 2018/11/05
FLASH: BoE temporarily treads water in Nov-18 2018/11/01
FLASH: UK manu’ surveys slow together in Oct-18 2018/11/01
UK Budget: surplus splurged 2018/10/29
Preview: BoE holding out for Brexit news 2018/10/26
Preview: UK splurging the surplus before Brexit 2018/10/25
FLASH: UK sales snap back down to trend in Sep-18 2018/10/18
FLASH: disinflationary UK surprise in Sep-18 2018/10/17
FLASH: hawkish UK hours and wages in Aug-18 2018/10/16
Preview: UK Sep-18 inflation and Aug labour market 2018/10/12
FLASH: UK GDP revisions raise 3Q18 forecast to 0.6% 2018/10/10
UK politics: votes for the people 2018/10/04
FLASH: UK Sep-18 PMIs support 0.5% 3Q18 GDP 2018/10/03
FLASH: UK manu’ PMI overtakes EA in Sep-18 2018/10/01
UK inflation: seasonals still a source of surprise 2018/10/01
Brexit: going blind without eyelids 2018/09/25
FLASH: UK sales stretch surprisingly high in Aug-18 2018/09/20
FLASH: surprise UK inflation surge in Aug-18 2018/09/19
Brexit: steps around the 20 Sep summit 2018/09/18
Preview: slower UK CPI inflation in Aug-18 2018/09/14
FLASH: BoE meets low expectations in Sep-18 2018/09/13
FLASH: UK wages surge beyond BoE forecast in Jul-18 2018/09/11
FLASH: UK 3Q18 GDP growth now tracking 0.5% q-o-q 2018/09/10

Analysts

  • Philip Rush

    Founder and Chief Economist Years of Experience: 10
Philip Rush

BoE: hawks caught on inconsistencies

- The MPC was unanimous in leaving policy unchanged again in June-19, as expected. - Looser financial conditions raise hawkish pressures, but only to the extent they are not related to a difference of assumption around Brexit. - The Committee is likely to wait at least a couple of months before highlighting its hawkish predicament more, as imported stimulus still seems inappropriate.

Philip Rush

UK: sales damped to a bullish trend in May-19

- UK retail sales declined by 0.5% m-o-m in May-19, in line with expectations. This fall has returned the level of sales to their trend, which remains bullishly resilient to Brexit-related uncertainty. - The unseasonably cool weather probably contributed to the latest dip and the very damp June will probably hit sales in the next release by more.

Philip Rush

UK inflation: broad resilience against May-19 airfares

- UK inflation data for May-19 contained a broad mix of small upside surprises that are suggestive of underlying resilience, even while the headline rate slowed. - Disinflation was mostly concentrated in airfares, where weakness was already in my forecast, so I was positively surprised by the headline rates of 2.0% on the CPI and 3.0% on the RPI (index at 289.2). - Further falls remain likely to occur in the coming months until a trough forms after the energy utility price cap cut in October.

Philip Rush

Preview: BoE hawks doused by GDP data

- Excess demand and inflation are applying hawkish pressures to the MPC that might not normally be tolerable. The MPC’s hawkish message in May has been ignored in favour of loosening monetary conditions even further. - Temporary disruption to output in April has hit the prospects for 2Q19 heavily. Until the rebound is seen, the MPC is likely to remain cautious and resist the sort of significant strengthening in its hawkish guidance that I’d previously expected.

Philip Rush

UK: wage revisions provide a hawkish reminder

- The LFS unemployment rate remained at 3.8% in Apr-19, while employment exceeded expectations. The temporary maintenance related demand shock need not affect employment or inflationary pressures over policy-relevant horizons. - Wage growth was far stronger than expected, partly because of the usual pattern of upwards revisions, but underlying pay also surged in April. The bonus share still looks low, but the finance part prone to immediate rebound has already recovered. - Labour market data are still showing hawkish pressures, but the recent hit to output is likely to dissuade strong guidance...

Philip Rush

BoE: hawks caught on inconsistencies

- The MPC was unanimous in leaving policy unchanged again in June-19, as expected. - Looser financial conditions raise hawkish pressures, but only to the extent they are not related to a difference of assumption around Brexit. - The Committee is likely to wait at least a couple of months before highlighting its hawkish predicament more, as imported stimulus still seems inappropriate.

Philip Rush

UK: sales damped to a bullish trend in May-19

- UK retail sales declined by 0.5% m-o-m in May-19, in line with expectations. This fall has returned the level of sales to their trend, which remains bullishly resilient to Brexit-related uncertainty. - The unseasonably cool weather probably contributed to the latest dip and the very damp June will probably hit sales in the next release by more.

Philip Rush

UK inflation: broad resilience against May-19 airfares

- UK inflation data for May-19 contained a broad mix of small upside surprises that are suggestive of underlying resilience, even while the headline rate slowed. - Disinflation was mostly concentrated in airfares, where weakness was already in my forecast, so I was positively surprised by the headline rates of 2.0% on the CPI and 3.0% on the RPI (index at 289.2). - Further falls remain likely to occur in the coming months until a trough forms after the energy utility price cap cut in October.

Philip Rush

Preview: BoE hawks doused by GDP data

- Excess demand and inflation are applying hawkish pressures to the MPC that might not normally be tolerable. The MPC’s hawkish message in May has been ignored in favour of loosening monetary conditions even further. - Temporary disruption to output in April has hit the prospects for 2Q19 heavily. Until the rebound is seen, the MPC is likely to remain cautious and resist the sort of significant strengthening in its hawkish guidance that I’d previously expected.

Philip Rush

UK: wage revisions provide a hawkish reminder

- The LFS unemployment rate remained at 3.8% in Apr-19, while employment exceeded expectations. The temporary maintenance related demand shock need not affect employment or inflationary pressures over policy-relevant horizons. - Wage growth was far stronger than expected, partly because of the usual pattern of upwards revisions, but underlying pay also surged in April. The bonus share still looks low, but the finance part prone to immediate rebound has already recovered. - Labour market data are still showing hawkish pressures, but the recent hit to output is likely to dissuade strong guidance...

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