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Title Date
FLASH: UK parliamentary theatrics divorced from deal 2019/02/14
FLASH: UK inflation grinds near its trough in Jan-19 2019/02/13
BoE: extracting the policy option value of delays 2019/02/12
FLASH: UK GDP shrinkage shock in Dec-18 2019/02/11
Preview: UK disinflation regulated for Jan-19 2019/02/08
FLASH: BoE sees gloom before room to raise rates 2019/02/07
FLASH: UK PMIs overstate sour start to 2019 2019/02/05
FLASH: UK IP relies on energy to grow in Jan-19 2019/02/01
Preview: BoE temporarily tolerant of excesses 2019/01/31
Politics: unusual UK unity promotes plan B 2019/01/29
Preview: UK parliamentary pushes on plan B 2019/01/28
UK Cycle: BoE should see a tightening labour market 2019/01/22
FLASH: UK retail sales normalise for end-2018 2019/01/18
FLASH: UK inflation falling fast over 2018 yearend 2019/01/16
FLASH: Brexit deal defeated by 230 2019/01/15
UK preview: disinflationary date for Dec-18 2019/01/14
FLASH: UK GDP boosted by consumers in Nov-18 2019/01/11
UK politics: swerve, crash or stop (55:30:15) 2019/01/09
FLASH: UK partially recovers into 2018 yearend 2019/01/04
FLASH: BoE blocked by Brexit uncertainty 2018/12/20
FLASH: UK retail surges into Christmas 2018 2018/12/20
FLASH: UK Nov-18 inflation slows as expected 2018/12/19
Preview: UK disinflation again in Nov-18 2018/12/17
Preview: BoE stuck in the Brexit quagmire 2018/12/14
FLASH: UK back to Brussels with bruises 2018/12/12
FLASH: UK's no-confidence vote in May day 2018/12/12
UK cycle: up-skilled surge in tight labour market pay 2018/12/11
FLASH: UK political palliative sought before voting 2018/12/10
FLASH: UK GDP offset vehicle disruption in Oct-18 2018/12/10
FLASH: UK's Nov-18 slowdown may be the trough 2018/12/05
FLASH: UK PMI manu’ partially rebounds in Nov-18 2018/12/03
UK politics: try then try again 2018/11/26
Brexit: warm butter fudge dessert 2018/11/22
FLASH: UK retail’s retreat in Oct-18 offset by revisions 2018/11/15
Brexit: withdrawal deal skews to soft Brexit 2018/11/15
FLASH: surprisingly stable UK inflation in Oct-18 2018/11/14
UK cycle: UR rise in Sep-18 is not disinflationary 2018/11/13
Preview: UK Oct-18 inflation and Q3 labour market 2018/11/12
FLASH: UK GDP growth halving after a 3Q18 surge 2018/11/09
BoE: hiking threshold conditionally met for Feb-19 2018/11/06
FLASH: UK Oct-18 PMIs corroborate Q4 slowdown 2018/11/05
FLASH: BoE temporarily treads water in Nov-18 2018/11/01
FLASH: UK manu’ surveys slow together in Oct-18 2018/11/01
UK Budget: surplus splurged 2018/10/29
Preview: BoE holding out for Brexit news 2018/10/26
Preview: UK splurging the surplus before Brexit 2018/10/25
FLASH: UK sales snap back down to trend in Sep-18 2018/10/18
FLASH: disinflationary UK surprise in Sep-18 2018/10/17
FLASH: hawkish UK hours and wages in Aug-18 2018/10/16
Preview: UK Sep-18 inflation and Aug labour market 2018/10/12
FLASH: UK GDP revisions raise 3Q18 forecast to 0.6% 2018/10/10
UK politics: votes for the people 2018/10/04
FLASH: UK Sep-18 PMIs support 0.5% 3Q18 GDP 2018/10/03
FLASH: UK manu’ PMI overtakes EA in Sep-18 2018/10/01
UK inflation: seasonals still a source of surprise 2018/10/01
Brexit: going blind without eyelids 2018/09/25
FLASH: UK sales stretch surprisingly high in Aug-18 2018/09/20
FLASH: surprise UK inflation surge in Aug-18 2018/09/19
Brexit: steps around the 20 Sep summit 2018/09/18
Preview: slower UK CPI inflation in Aug-18 2018/09/14
FLASH: BoE meets low expectations in Sep-18 2018/09/13
FLASH: UK wages surge beyond BoE forecast in Jul-18 2018/09/11
FLASH: UK 3Q18 GDP growth now tracking 0.5% q-o-q 2018/09/10
Preview: BoE still awaits withdrawal agreement 2018/09/07
UK Wrap: Brexit bifurcation in bullish trends 2018/09/06
FLASH: UK August PMIs reinforce upside risk to 3Q18 2018/09/05
FLASH: UK industry better than manu’ PMI in 3Q18 2018/09/03
FLASH: UK consumer hits new highs in Jul-18 2018/08/16
FLASH: UK inflation rise dressed down in Jul-18 2018/08/15
FLASH: UK UR drop achieves 4% forecast early 2018/08/14
UK preview: UR fall to 4.1% and CPI inflation rise 2018/08/13
FLASH: UK GDP carry-over supporting 3Q18 2018/08/10
BoE: hazardous journey to Feb-19 hike 2018/08/09
FLASH: BoE hikes unanimously in Aug-18 2018/08/02
Preview: BoE hike with contingent next steps 2018/07/26
FLASH: UK consumer resurgence despite Jun-18 dip 2018/07/19
UK inflation: seasonal smash shouldn’t dissuade BoE 2018/07/18
FLASH: UK labour market momentum remains hawkish 2018/07/17
UK Preview: brisk employment and Jun-18 inflation 2018/07/16
FLASH: UK GDP still rebounding toward 0.4% in Q2 2018/07/10
UK politics: leading soft Brexit or bust 2018/07/09
Brexit: bouncing through unstable equilibria 2018/07/05
FLASH: UK PMI surprises support August hike 2018/07/04
FLASH: UK energy offsets late-2Q18 manu’ bounce 2018/07/02
FLASH: GDP story rewrite helps Aug-18 hike 2018/06/29
FLASH: Haldane joins the hawkish dissent 2018/06/21
Preview: BoE forecasts broadly on track for hike 2018/06/18
FLASH: UK consumer beats doubters in May-18 2018/06/14
FLASH: UK inflation stays soft ahead of summer rise 2018/06/13
FLASH: hours distort UK wages in 3m to Apr-18 2018/06/12
FLASH: surprise industrial crash in Apr-18 2018/06/11
Preview: Brexit vote-a-rama in Commons 2018/06/10
Preview: UK inflation staying soft in May-18 2018/06/08
FLASH: UK PMIs recover trend growth in May-18 2018/06/05
FLASH: retail rebounds rapidly in Apr-18 2018/05/24
FLASH: CPI slowdown not dovish in Apr-18 2018/05/23
Preview: soft UK CPI inflation again in Apr-18 2018/05/21
FLASH: UK labour market stays strong in 1Q18 2018/05/15
BoE: data dependence for August hike 2018/05/14
FLASH: BoE hike focus is the coming months 2018/05/10

Analysts

  • Philip Rush

    Founder and Chief Economist Years of Experience: 10
Philip Rush

FLASH: UK parliamentary theatrics divorced from deal

- The government was defeated on a motion reiterating the approach passed on 29 January after Eurosceptics abstained in protest at the implied opposition to no deal. It does not bind the government or show no support for an amended deal. - A state-dependent backstop break clause remains the most likely outcome, with the probabilities of a deal, no deal, and no Brexit still roughly 55:30:15, in my view. Parliamentary theatrics are not changing the facts on the ground.

Philip Rush

FLASH: UK inflation grinds near its trough in Jan-19

- UK inflation disappointed consensus expectations in Jan-19 but was broadly in line with my forecasts at 2.5% on the RPI and 1.85% on the CPI. - The energy price cap was probably poorly accounted for, and it looks set to induce further volatility in the April and October prints.

Philip Rush

BoE: extracting the policy option value of delays

- The BoE MPC was unanimous in voting for no policy changes in Feb-19, as widely expected. Hawkish pressures remain in the Bank’s forecast, but the policy option value of a delay is high enough to tolerate them until after EU withdrawal. - Downgrades to the Bank’s demand forecasts were surprisingly significant given the PMIs bias to overreact to uncertainty. Allaying those concerns is likely to be too difficult to do in time for a May-19 rate hike. - I now expect the BoE to hike Bank rate to 1.0% in Aug-19, assuming a smooth exit from the EU in the interim. The data should seem better than the...

Philip Rush

FLASH: UK GDP shrinkage shock in Dec-18

- UK monthly GDP disappointed all expectations by falling 0.4% m-o-m in Dec-18, which trimmed 4Q18 to 0.2% q-o-q. IP weighed most, mainly owing to ongoing car manufacturing issues, but was not the source of surprise. - Services remained resilient overall in the PMI-comparable areas with 0.55% q-o-q growth. Government and non-retail distributive trades were weaker, though. - Construction’s 2.8% contraction caused most of the surprise. Repairs and new private housing were weakest, and both are prone to positive payback. However, 1Q18 GDP growth is now tracking a low 0.3% q-o-q, in my view.

Philip Rush

Preview: UK disinflation regulated for Jan-19

- The imposition of a household energy price cap had a significant disinflationary effect in Jan-19 and lowered my CPI and RPI inflation forecasts to 1.9% and 2.5%. - These outcomes would be below the consensus again, although that is now the norm amid a heavy bias to surprises, especially relative to the RPI consensus.

Philip Rush

FLASH: UK parliamentary theatrics divorced from deal

- The government was defeated on a motion reiterating the approach passed on 29 January after Eurosceptics abstained in protest at the implied opposition to no deal. It does not bind the government or show no support for an amended deal. - A state-dependent backstop break clause remains the most likely outcome, with the probabilities of a deal, no deal, and no Brexit still roughly 55:30:15, in my view. Parliamentary theatrics are not changing the facts on the ground.

Philip Rush

FLASH: UK inflation grinds near its trough in Jan-19

- UK inflation disappointed consensus expectations in Jan-19 but was broadly in line with my forecasts at 2.5% on the RPI and 1.85% on the CPI. - The energy price cap was probably poorly accounted for, and it looks set to induce further volatility in the April and October prints.

Philip Rush

BoE: extracting the policy option value of delays

- The BoE MPC was unanimous in voting for no policy changes in Feb-19, as widely expected. Hawkish pressures remain in the Bank’s forecast, but the policy option value of a delay is high enough to tolerate them until after EU withdrawal. - Downgrades to the Bank’s demand forecasts were surprisingly significant given the PMIs bias to overreact to uncertainty. Allaying those concerns is likely to be too difficult to do in time for a May-19 rate hike. - I now expect the BoE to hike Bank rate to 1.0% in Aug-19, assuming a smooth exit from the EU in the interim. The data should seem better than the...

Philip Rush

FLASH: UK GDP shrinkage shock in Dec-18

- UK monthly GDP disappointed all expectations by falling 0.4% m-o-m in Dec-18, which trimmed 4Q18 to 0.2% q-o-q. IP weighed most, mainly owing to ongoing car manufacturing issues, but was not the source of surprise. - Services remained resilient overall in the PMI-comparable areas with 0.55% q-o-q growth. Government and non-retail distributive trades were weaker, though. - Construction’s 2.8% contraction caused most of the surprise. Repairs and new private housing were weakest, and both are prone to positive payback. However, 1Q18 GDP growth is now tracking a low 0.3% q-o-q, in my view.

Philip Rush

Preview: UK disinflation regulated for Jan-19

- The imposition of a household energy price cap had a significant disinflationary effect in Jan-19 and lowered my CPI and RPI inflation forecasts to 1.9% and 2.5%. - These outcomes would be below the consensus again, although that is now the norm amid a heavy bias to surprises, especially relative to the RPI consensus.

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