BGC has been one of the major market players in Turkish OTC debt, FX and swaps markets since 1998.

We started offering corporate finance and investment banking services to our clients in 2013. We offer a complete range of financial services to help our clients achieve their goals. Our main areas of activity within investment banking are as follows:

  • Mergers & Acquisitions
  • Equity Capital Markets
  • Debt Finance & Advisory

Coverage

  • Research Category: Equity, Market Commentary, Rates
  • Asset Class: Equity, Fixed Income
  • Geographic Coverage: Poland, Turkey
  • Size Coverage: Large Cap, Mid Cap, Small Cap, Micro Cap, Nano Cap
  • Sector Coverage: Automobiles & Parts, Banks, Beverages, Chemicals, Construction & Materials, Fixed Line Telecommunications, Food & Drug Retailers, Food Producers, Gas, Water & Multi-utilities, General Industrials, General Retailers, Household Goods & Home Construction, Industrial Engineering, Industrial Metals & Mining, Industrial Transportation, Leisure Goods, Mining, Mobile Telecommunications, Oil & Gas Producers, Personal Goods, Real Estate Investment Trusts, Technology Hardware & Equipment, Travel & Leisure
  • Underlying Coverage: 53
Export
Ticker Underlying First Report Latest Report
11B PL11BTS00015 11 Bit Studios S.A. 2019/01/31 2019/01/31
A1T9PQ TREPEGS00016 Pegasus Hava Tasimaciligi AS 2018/03/06 2019/05/13
A2DTD4 TREMAVI00037 Mavi Giyim Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. 2018/03/15 2019/03/28
ADEL TRAADELW91T1 Adel Kalemcilik Ticaret ve Sanayi A.S. 2019/03/04 2019/05/02
AEFES TRAAEFES91A9 Anadolu Efes Biracilik ve Malt Sanayi A.S. 2018/03/23 2019/05/09
AKBNK TRAAKBNK91N6 Akbank T.A.S. 2018/03/14 2019/04/29
ALKIM TRAALKIM91E0 Alkim Alkali Kimya A.S. 2018/08/09 2019/05/09
ANACM TRAANACM91F7 Anadolu Cam Sanayi A.S. 2018/07/30 2019/04/29
ARCLK TRAARCLK91H5 Arcelik A.S. 2018/04/27 2019/04/30
ASELS TRAASELS91H2 Aselsan Askeri Elektronik Sanayi 2018/05/03 2019/05/08
AYGAZ TRAAYGAZ91E0 Aygaz A.S. 2018/05/10 2018/08/13
BIMAS TREBIMM00018 BIM Birlesik Magazalar 2018/03/08 2019/05/13
BIZIM TREBZMT00017 Bizim Toptan Satis Magazalari AS 2018/03/01 2019/04/30
BRISA TRABRISA91E3 Brisa-Bridgestone Sabanci Lastik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. 2018/08/09 2019/04/30
CCOLA TRECOLA00011 Coca-Cola Icecek Uretim AS 2018/05/03 2019/05/03
DGATE TREDGTE00010 Datagate Bilgisayar Malzemeleri TAS 2018/05/10 2019/04/30
DOAS TREDOTO00013 Dogus Otomotiv Servis ve Ticaret A.S. 2018/03/01 2019/05/10
EKGYO TREEGYO00017 Emlak Konut Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi AS 2018/10/24 2018/10/24
EREGL TRAEREGL91G3 Eregli Demir ve Celik Fabrikalari T.A.S. 2018/04/27 2019/04/29
FROTO TRAOTOSN91H6 Ford Otomotiv Sanayii A.S. 2018/04/03 2019/04/30
GARAN TRAGARAN91N1 Turkiye Garanti Bankasi A.S. 2018/07/27 2019/04/30
HALKB TRETHAL00019 Turkiye Halk Bankasi AS 2018/03/14 2019/05/14
INDES TREINDX00019 Indeks Bilgisayar Sistemleri Muhendislik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. 2018/05/10 2019/05/10
ISCTR TRAISCTR91N2 Turkiye Is Bankasi A.S. C 2018/03/14 2019/02/11
ISGYO TRAISGYO91Q3 IS Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi A.S. 2018/10/24 2018/10/24
KCHOL TRAKCHOL91Q8 KOC Holding A.S. 2018/05/10 2019/05/10
KORDS TRAKORDS91B2 Kordsa Global Endustriyel Iplik ve Kord Bezi Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. 2019/04/03 2019/05/06
KOZAL TREKOAL00014 Koza Altin Isletmeleri AS 2018/04/25 2019/05/10
KRDMD TRAKRDMR91G7 Kardemir Karabuk Demir Celik Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. D 2018/03/12 2019/05/10
MGROS TREMGTI00012 Migros Ticaret A.S 2018/08/08 2019/05/09
OTKAR TRAOTKAR91H3 Otokar Otomotiv ve Savunma Sanayi A.S. 2018/08/06 2019/05/08
OZKGY TREOZAK00014 Ozak Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi AS 2018/03/07 2018/10/24
PETKM TRAPETKM91E0 Petkim Petrokimya Holding A.S. 2018/03/01 2019/03/04
PETUN TRAPETUN91A5 Pinar Entegre Et Ve Yem Sanayii A.S. 2018/08/09 2019/05/02
PNSUT TRAPNSUT91A5 Pinar Sut Mamulleri Sanayii A.S. 2018/08/09 2019/05/02
SISE TRASISEW91Q3 Turkiye Sise Ve Cam Fabrikalari A.S. 2018/07/30 2019/04/29
SODA TRASODAS91E5 Soda Sanayii A.S. 2018/07/30 2019/04/29
TATKS TRATATKS91A5 Tat Gida Sanayi AS 2018/08/06 2019/04/29
TAVHL TRETAVH00018 TAV Havalimanlari Holding AS 2018/07/27 2019/04/26
TCELL TRATCELL91M1 Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. 2018/03/15 2019/05/02
THYAO TRATHYAO91M5 Turk Hava Yollari A.O. 2018/03/06 2019/05/10
TKC US9001112047 Turkcell Iletisim Hizmetleri A.S. ADS 2019/02/21 2019/02/21
TOASO TRATOASO91H3 Tofas Turk Otomobil Fabrikasi A.S. 2018/04/03 2019/04/30
TRGYO TRETRGY00018 Torunlar Gayrimenkul Yatirim Ortakligi 2018/10/24 2018/10/24
TRKCM TRATRKCM91F7 Trakya Cam Sanayi A.S. 2018/07/30 2019/04/29
TSKB TRATSKBW91N0 Turkiye Sinai Kalkinma Bankasi AS 2018/03/14 2018/07/30
TTKOM TRETTLK00013 Turk Telekomunikasyon AS 2018/04/26 2019/05/08
TTRAK TRETTRK00010 Turk Traktor ve Ziraat Makineleri A.S. 2018/04/25 2019/05/06
TUPRS TRATUPRS91E8 Turkiye Petrol Rafinerileri A.S. 2018/03/01 2019/05/10
ULKER TREULKR00015 Ulker Biskuvi Sanayi 2018/03/07 2019/05/09
VAKBN TREVKFB00019 Turkiye Vakiflar Bankasi (D) 2018/03/14 2019/05/13
YATAS TRAYATAS91B4 Yatas Yatak ve Yorgan Sanayi ve Ticaret A.S. 2018/03/01 2019/05/13
YKBNK TRAYKBNK91N6 Yapi ve Kredi Bankasi A.S. 2018/03/14 2019/05/03

Analysts

  • Ezgi Yilmaz

    Senior Analyst
  • Erdem Hafizoglu

    Director
  • Berna Kurbay

    Director
  • Ozgur Altug

    Chief Economist
  • Cagdas Dogan

    Senior Analyst
  • Ali Incekara Incekara

    Equity Strategy
Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners: PICTURING TURKEY - GDP still slightly down y/y but up q/q in 1Q19

In our “Picturing Turkey” product we present our Nowcast Model, which aims to estimate where Turkey stands in terms of economic activity by using 22 indicators. We bring those together in three charts, one showing the GDP growth momentum and the other two showing the total consumption and investment growths.

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners - TURKEY - WEEKLY FX FLOWS: Residents were buyers of FX, foreigners sold portfolio, swap-adj. CBT reserves dropped

DEPOSITS: Total non-bank FX deposits in the Turkish banking system increased by US$2.8bn during the week on May 10, after having dropped in each of the past four weeks by a cumulative US$3.0bn. As such, non-bank FX deposits dropped by US$0.2bn since 29-Mar but increased by US$22.1bn year-to-date.

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners - TURKEY - CBT Expectation Survey: Further increase in inflation expectations...

We observe some further increases in inflation expectations over almost all time horizons, probably as a result of recent TL depreciation. On the other hand, growth forecasts have been further cut, in tandem with C/A deficit estimates

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners - TURKEY - Loan growth momentum remains at around 9%...

Unadjusted y/y loan growth increased from 12.8% to 13.3% as of May 10, while the FX adjusted y/y loan growth decreased from -0.3% to -0.5%.

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners - TURKEY - Contraction in retail sales volume remains relatively deep in March but the gradual recovery trend continues...

Retail sales volume index decreased by 5.1% y/y in March in unadjusted terms, while the calendar adjusted figures contracted by a more limited but still relatively deep 3.8% y/y. As a result, we estimate that unadjusted retail sales have contracted by 5.5% y/y in 1Q19, compared to the 7.3% drop in 4Q18.

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners: PICTURING TURKEY - GDP still slightly down y/y but up q/q in 1Q19

In our “Picturing Turkey” product we present our Nowcast Model, which aims to estimate where Turkey stands in terms of economic activity by using 22 indicators. We bring those together in three charts, one showing the GDP growth momentum and the other two showing the total consumption and investment growths.

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners - TURKEY - WEEKLY FX FLOWS: Residents were buyers of FX, foreigners sold portfolio, swap-adj. CBT reserves dropped

DEPOSITS: Total non-bank FX deposits in the Turkish banking system increased by US$2.8bn during the week on May 10, after having dropped in each of the past four weeks by a cumulative US$3.0bn. As such, non-bank FX deposits dropped by US$0.2bn since 29-Mar but increased by US$22.1bn year-to-date.

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners - TURKEY - CBT Expectation Survey: Further increase in inflation expectations...

We observe some further increases in inflation expectations over almost all time horizons, probably as a result of recent TL depreciation. On the other hand, growth forecasts have been further cut, in tandem with C/A deficit estimates

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners - TURKEY - Loan growth momentum remains at around 9%...

Unadjusted y/y loan growth increased from 12.8% to 13.3% as of May 10, while the FX adjusted y/y loan growth decreased from -0.3% to -0.5%.

Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners - TURKEY - Contraction in retail sales volume remains relatively deep in March but the gradual recovery trend continues...

Retail sales volume index decreased by 5.1% y/y in March in unadjusted terms, while the calendar adjusted figures contracted by a more limited but still relatively deep 3.8% y/y. As a result, we estimate that unadjusted retail sales have contracted by 5.5% y/y in 1Q19, compared to the 7.3% drop in 4Q18.

Ali Incekara Incekara ...
  • Berna Kurbay
  • Cagdas Dogan
  • Erdem Hafizoglu
  • Ezgi Yilmaz

TURKEY: 1Q18 Earnings Preview

Aggregate results: We present 1Q18 forecasts for 7 banks and 37 non-financial companies. We expect aggregate earnings to decrease 1% y/y in 1Q18, when adjusted for Migros’ one-off in 1Q17, driven by the 7% y/y drop in bank earnings from a high base. We estimate earnings to drop 5% q/q in 1Q18, driven by 26% q/q decline at non-financials, mostly explained by airline companies. Equally-weighted FX basket climbed from 4.14 to 4.41 in 1Q18, which will be weighing on the bottom-lines of companies with short FX positions. Yet, with TL having depreciated against both US$ and EUR in 1Q17 and 4Q17 as w...

Ozgur Altug

TURKEY - FEBRUARY INFLATION

CPI: 0.73% vs cons: +0.5%. Annual CPI is down from 10.35% to 10.26%

Cagdas Dogan

JULY INFLATION - SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN EXPECTED

July inflation reading was slightly lower than expected at the headline, while core CPI was in line and high...

Ali Incekara Incekara ...
  • Berna Kurbay
  • Cagdas Dogan
  • Erdem Hafizoglu
  • Ezgi Yilmaz

TURKEY STRATEGY UPDATE

Macro estimates , earnings estimates are revised.. With 10Y bonds trading at 19%, we think a near term multiple of around 8.0x is more reasonable, implying 108k for BIST100 or 11% upside potential over the next 6Ms.

Cagdas Dogan

CBT INFLATION REPORT: Tight for longer, slower economic activity, and support from fiscal policy to improve inflation..

: CBT once again revised up its inflation forecast significantly and not only for this year-end but also for next year, highlighting the Bank’s pessimistic view on the impact of FX pass-through and pricing behaviour, in our view. While the CBT continues to give the same message of keeping a tight policy, a lot seems to be hinging upon the expectation of an increased support from fiscal policy, which at this point should be a question mark for the markets. We also did not sense that the CBT is likely to react to the expected rise in inflation in 3Q18. (CBT, BGC Partners)

Berna Kurbay ...
  • Cagdas Dogan
  • Erdem Hafizoglu
  • Ezgi Yilmaz

BGC Partners -"Implications of a global trade war on Turkish equities"

Negligible impact so far but fresh EU tariffs may change the outlook… Some Turkish steel companies will be feeling the pinch of US tariffs on Turkey’s steel exports (mainly unlisted long steel producers). From listed Turkish stocks’ perspective, there are far too many unknowns right now. However, in case of new tariffs on EU imports, Turkish exporters into the EU, such as Arcelik, Ford Otosan, Soda Sanayi, Tofas and Vestel, appear to be vulnerable from demand perspective. As for the domestic market, implications of Turkey’s tariffs on US car imports are expected to be negligible for Ford Otosa...

Ali Incekara Incekara ...
  • Cagdas Dogan

BGC Partners: PRIVATE FX DEBT "Juggling Liabilities"

a detailed analysis of Turkish private companies' FX debt..

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