Amplifying Global FX Capital Pty Ltd

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We produce macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange.

These reports are drawn from analysis by Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company.

We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

We have two subscription levels for our research.  AmpGFX members receive our AmpGFX reports. These are our flagship macroeconomic analysis produced two to three times per week.  Real-Time members receive our AmpGFX reports plus Real Time Briefings.  These include our specific trading strategy, including our entry levels and related orders, and additional market commentary.

Greg Gibbs is the director and founder of Amplifying Global FX Capital. Greg began his career at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989, and in the early 1990s, he was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk.  In 1996, Greg joined Bankers Trust Australia on the FX sales desk covering Australian and international fund managers. In 1999, he joined Westpac Bank in New York and switched to the research side to become the bank’s first FX strategist based in New York, carving out a role covering major currencies. In 2002, he returned to Australia as senior FX strategist at RBC covering APAC currencies, and in 2006 he moved to ABN AMRO in Sydney, reuniting with many of his colleagues from Bankers Trust that were again part of a thriving full-service investment bank. Greg continued to work on at RBS in Sydney as senior FX strategist after it took over ABN AMRO in 2008.  He moved to Singapore in July 2012 after the bank consolidated its FX business in Asia, and was appointed Head of APAC Markets Strategy for the bank in February 2014.  In early 2015, Greg began to work on establishing his own company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, and launched its website in August 2015 after completing duties at RBS. 

Coverage

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Title Date
Big issues holding down AUD/NZD have flipped 2019/07/09
Which currency do you want to hold – gold, crypto or fiat? 2019/06/21
Bond markets displaying fear, equities clinging to the notion of a Fed or Trump put 2019/05/28
The global recovery narrative crumbles 2019/05/23
High stakes Huawei gamble a weight on US and global equities 2019/05/20
Australian labour and wages indicators point lower ahead of key data next week 2019/05/09
RBA and RBNZ in the hot seat, Trump’s tirade threatens global risk appetite 2019/05/06
A reprieve for the EUR, but not a game changer 2019/05/01
Dollar tests highs as global risk aversion remains elevated 2019/04/23
Bond yields rope-a-dope and fight back 2019/04/14
RBA’s Debelle strikes optimistic tone; remains lazer focused on the state of the labour market 2019/04/10
Yield grab supports the USD, Japanification fear weakens EUR 2019/04/04
May opens a path to unlock the Brexit Jam 2019/04/02
RBA hints at an easing bias 2019/04/02
Alternative Brexit vote on Monday may lift GBP 2019/03/30
The dollar IS the story; Gold confounds, Brexit rabbit hole; EUR punished 2019/03/28
RBNZ pressures the RBA to adopt easing bias 2019/03/27
Gold May Rise on Lower Real Ylds; Canada Leads Fall in Real Ylds; Aust Inflation Expectations Slump 2019/03/25
Labour data may snap RBA policy tension 2019/03/19
Brexit sucking up oxygen from the FX market 2019/03/13
ECB was the last straw, AUD’s hold onto 70 slipping 2019/03/11
Global manufacturing PMI slump at odds with equity and commodity price rebound 2019/03/06
Pressure on the RBA mounts 2019/02/27
US real yields fall, and the Fed wants higher inflation 2019/02/25
Gold showing the way 2019/02/20
Bearish Euro sentiment over-done 2019/02/13
RBA policy faces big test 2019/02/04
Fed completes its come-down 2019/01/30
ECB’s TLTROs enter the frame 2019/01/24
Chinese stimulus vs. a weak Australian housing market 2019/01/17
GBP rebounds as the risk of no deal diminishes 2019/01/15
USD peaking with the economic and political cycle 2019/01/09
Chinese market sentiment at a crossroad 2019/01/06
The market gives Powell a thumbs down 2018/12/19
Dollar up today, but down tomorrow? Fed and govt shut-down risk 2018/12/11
Clarida puts the ball in Powell’s court, but amenable to a pause 2018/11/27
Fed rate pause in view 2018/11/20
A grimmer view on global risks boosting the dollar 2018/11/13
The dollar and the meeting between Trump and Xi 2018/11/01
The Dollar and Mid-Term Elections 6 November 2018/11/01
ECB and Fed QE reversal in play, Credit risk dampening CNY and EUR 2018/10/18
Fundamentals battle positioning, real yields support the USD 2018/10/16
Rebounds in Asian Currencies and AUD may be short-lived 2018/10/11
Mounting risks for Eurozone and China 2018/10/09
Old Skool moves in US yields and dollar 2018/10/03
Clouds clear for CAD, but shroud EUR and AUD 2018/10/01
New Zealand GDP post-mortem – NZD still vulnerable 2018/09/20
Risks for AUD and NZD rising to the surface 2018/09/18
Wading through event risks – Trade, Brexit, Fed policy, US mid-terms 2018/09/14
The USA’s late-cycle fiscal adventure kicks-in 2018/09/11
Australian economy hitting its stride, but AUD is pricing a growth stumble 2018/09/05
RBA may tweak guidance 2018/09/03
RBA rate cut may soon be back on the table 2018/08/30
Emerging Market Chaos returns 2018/08/30
Short-term USD up-cycle clashes with approaching long-term down-cycle 2018/08/29
New Australian PM offers a path to AUD redemption 2018/08/24
US Politics – More drama than risk 2018/08/23
USD facing a negative feedback loop, JPY placed to benefit more than EUR 2018/08/21
TRL for USD; exchanging one twin deficit and populist government for another 2018/08/14
RBA and RBNZ may reveal doubts 2018/08/03
Major commodity currencies may diverge – CAD set to shine 2018/07/29
AUD – what gives? – risks and strengths 2018/07/17
QE come-back and regional forces drive JPY 2018/07/13
Bank of Canada may pick up the pace 2018/07/10
Fresh UK Political Turmoil 2018/07/09
GBP may be in a sweet spot 2018/07/08
Shifting Trump trade rhetoric may support EUR and CAD against Asian currencies 2018/07/06
Gold Confounds, A New Era of CNY Flexibility, Inflation Pressure Builds in the USA 2018/07/02
Negative feedback from US protectionist policies may boost gold 2018/06/25
Upside potential for AUD and GBP 2018/06/21
Trade war horse bolts, AUD trades like an Emerging Market Asset 2018/06/19
How Dovish will the Fed be? 2018/06/12
Add Deutsche Bank to the list of risks for the EUR and Global Markets 2018/06/08
ECB’s stepped up plans to end QE may not be good news for the EUR 2018/06/06
A bout of optimism amidst intensifying risks 2018/06/05
Euro inflation, US economy and Canada rates still on track 2018/05/30
Hardened Populist politics in Italy and the USA 2018/05/29
Strident US trade policy supporting the USD 2018/05/24
EUR and GBP fortunes may diverge 2018/05/21
Italian leaders pose a new threat to the EUR 2018/05/17
Global bond yields set to rise further 2018/05/15
AUD falls, but current news is stronger 2018/05/09
EUR Hits a New Low for 2018, Emerging Markets Under-perform 2018/05/08
Regime change for the USD; AUD breaks down 2018/05/03
Time for a EUR reality check 2018/04/25
A pervasive rise in yields may propel further USD gains 2018/04/23
AUD/NZD struggles; has NZD become less risk-sensitive? 2018/04/13
Spreads, Basis, and the USD and AUD 2018/04/05
What next for US inflation? 2018/04/02
Does anything in FX make sense anymore? 2018/03/29
USD Shrugging-Off Political Risk, AUD Headwinds and EUR Cracks 2018/03/20
US Political Risk Threatening the USD and More 2018/03/14
Trump vs. free trade orthodoxy 2018/03/08
EUR and AUD risks ignored for how long? 2018/03/06
USD tests resistance after double bottom 2018/02/28
Time for the USD to fight-back 2018/02/23
USD and US fiscal policy off-the-rails 2018/02/14
USD rebound is a creeper 2018/02/07
Bond yields in driver’s seat; time for correction in equities and the USD 2018/01/31
Stable genius or dumb luck, Trump gets a weak dollar 2018/01/24

Analysts

  • Greg Gibbs

    Director Years of Experience: 20+

Big issues holding down AUD/NZD have flipped

AUD/NZD is still languishing around record lows. Pessimism over the AUD increased as the Australian economy stalled in the second half of last year, the Royal Commission into the financial sector unsettled confidence, the housing market downturn accelerated, political uncertainty peaked into the national election in May, and the RBA scurried to cut rates twice at back-to-back monthly meetings in June and July. Now the regulatory, political and economic trends are moving in favour of the AUD and against NZD. RBNZ is toughing capital requirements on NZ banks. The Australian housing market is ...

Which currency do you want to hold – gold, crypto or fiat?

It appears central banks have pivoted towards delivering more policy easing to bolster inflation expectations that have plumbed new lows this year. The Fed has the greatest scope to ease policy, and the prospect of deep rate cuts has undermined the USD. However, the Fed is struggling to gain the initiative and appears to be reacting to market pressure and outside criticism rather than setting its own agenda. Gold has broken the range highs over the last six years and may have further to run as central bank policy easing sends investors in search of alternatives to fiat currencies. Trump's a...

Bond markets displaying fear, equities clinging to the notion of a Fed or Trump put

The US equity market slid into the close on Tuesday to sit on key supports. The market is beginning to acknowledge that trade policy actions to date are significant impediments to US, China and global growth and earnings. The bond market has proven more responsive to risks to growth so far this year. Bond yields have fallen to a low since 2017, the US yield curve remains inverted this year, inflation expectations have fallen to new lows in Europe and Australia, and have fallen in recent weeks in the USA. Real yields have fallen to new lows in Australia and the UK. Bond volatility has lifte...

The global recovery narrative crumbles

The US equity market was running with an optimistic assessment that there is a Trump and Fed put, that a trade deal and Chinese policy stimulus would generate a recovery in the global economy and the US economy was largely immune to a slowdown in activity abroad. However, the tariffs have been increased, trade talks have stalled, and the US has rolled out bans on Chinese tech companies. The evidence grows that there is a structural rift in US-China trade relations. The rebound in Chinese economic activity in March was not backed up by data in other Asian exporter nations or Europe through Apr...

High stakes Huawei gamble a weight on US and global equities

The Huawei Entity Listing appears to be a high stakes gamble by the US administration to counter the rise in Chinese economic power in an industry that is critical to the global economy. It is evidence that the broader economic and trade dispute will be hard to resolve, and makes it harder for China and the US to resume trade negotiations. This suggests that punitive tariffs may remain in place for much longer than expected and indeed may be expanded further. Global trade and manufacturing activity appears to have been undermined by the trade dispute, and hopes of a recovery later in the ye...

RBA’s Debelle strikes optimistic tone; remains lazer focused on the state of the labour market

We had warned to watch out for dovish noises from the RBA this week after it changed its monetary policy meeting statement earlier in the month to say they are monitoring developments, suggesting they may be willing to consider a rate cut in coming months if downside risks to growth materialize. Watch out for dovish noises from the Fed and RBA; 10 April - AmpGFXcapital.com However, the speech on the “State of the Economy” on Wednesday by Deputy Governor Guy Debelle sounded relatively optimistic that the deterioration in the outlook since mid-2018 both in Australia and globally may be tempora...

Yield grab supports the USD, Japanification fear weakens EUR

FX markets are meandering with no clear trends, and it seems investors have little market conviction.  This appears to be resulting in choppy price action influenced mainly by short term technicals rather than macroeconomic developments. We have noted that in recent years the FX market has appeared to be less pre-emptive, and often responds surprisingly sharply after the event.  As such we remain wary of a reversal of recent USD strength if, as it seems increasingly likely, a negotiated trade and Brexit deal might be found relatively soon.  If there is a trend, it is a mild downtrend in the ...

May opens a path to unlock the Brexit Jam

PM May calls for a unified government approach to unlock the Brexit jam. Failing a unified plan, she has offered parliament a meaningful vote on a number of plans in a series of votes ahead of the EU summit on 10 April next week. This appears to offer a way to find a timely agreement that would allow Brexit to take place on 22 May; a result that should support the GBP.

RBA hints at an easing bias

The final ‘policy guidance’ paragraph added that the RBA is now “monitoring developments” suggesting that it is less sure that its current policy setting will remain appropriate. The RBA is typically relatively cautious in tipping its hand in the policy statement, and while subtle compared to the RBNZ statement last week, you might conclude that the change in this final RBA paragraph amounts to a shift from a neutral policy stance to an easing bias. The final paragraph suggests that the RBA is now prepared to ease policy should various threats to their outlook build further.  

Alternative Brexit vote on Monday may lift GBP

The defeat of May’s deal on Friday was narrower but still emphatic, rendering it almost dead. We see a higher probability, perhaps even a high probability, of a majority of MPs now supporting a customs union Brexit in the indicative votes on Monday. The bigger the vote, especially a majority, for a customs union will make it harder for Brexiteers in the Tory Party taking control and run the clock down to a no deal Brexit.

Global bond yields set to rise further

We see higher US and global yields developing.  Global equity market confidence may be returning, supported by conciliatory moves on US trade relationships with China, stability returning to the USD after a recent rebound, and a likely rebound in global economic reports in Q2.  Oil and broader commodity prices remain elevated and are indicative of higher demand.  They may further boost global inflation expectations.  Wage growth is rising more clearly in the major economies experiencing tightening labour markets.  

Multiple upside risks for US bond yields

In our post on Monday (The white trashing of the US dollar), we suggested that it may be too late and dangerous to sell the USD that is falling in the face of a rising yield advantage, tax cuts that should help boost the already solid recovery path in the USA, late in its economic cycle, and potential repatriation inflows.  There may be some reasonable explanations for the USD fall, such as speculation about QE unwind in Europe and Japan, capital inflows to EM markets, and the toxic political climate in the USA.  Sentiment towards the USD appears quite bearish and may remain weak despite a str...

Big issues holding down AUD/NZD have flipped

AUD/NZD is still languishing around record lows. Pessimism over the AUD increased as the Australian economy stalled in the second half of last year, the Royal Commission into the financial sector unsettled confidence, the housing market downturn accelerated, political uncertainty peaked into the national election in May, and the RBA scurried to cut rates twice at back-to-back monthly meetings in June and July. Now the regulatory, political and economic trends are moving in favour of the AUD and against NZD. RBNZ is toughing capital requirements on NZ banks. The Australian housing market is ...

Which currency do you want to hold – gold, crypto or fiat?

It appears central banks have pivoted towards delivering more policy easing to bolster inflation expectations that have plumbed new lows this year. The Fed has the greatest scope to ease policy, and the prospect of deep rate cuts has undermined the USD. However, the Fed is struggling to gain the initiative and appears to be reacting to market pressure and outside criticism rather than setting its own agenda. Gold has broken the range highs over the last six years and may have further to run as central bank policy easing sends investors in search of alternatives to fiat currencies. Trump's a...

Bond markets displaying fear, equities clinging to the notion of a Fed or Trump put

The US equity market slid into the close on Tuesday to sit on key supports. The market is beginning to acknowledge that trade policy actions to date are significant impediments to US, China and global growth and earnings. The bond market has proven more responsive to risks to growth so far this year. Bond yields have fallen to a low since 2017, the US yield curve remains inverted this year, inflation expectations have fallen to new lows in Europe and Australia, and have fallen in recent weeks in the USA. Real yields have fallen to new lows in Australia and the UK. Bond volatility has lifte...

The global recovery narrative crumbles

The US equity market was running with an optimistic assessment that there is a Trump and Fed put, that a trade deal and Chinese policy stimulus would generate a recovery in the global economy and the US economy was largely immune to a slowdown in activity abroad. However, the tariffs have been increased, trade talks have stalled, and the US has rolled out bans on Chinese tech companies. The evidence grows that there is a structural rift in US-China trade relations. The rebound in Chinese economic activity in March was not backed up by data in other Asian exporter nations or Europe through Apr...

High stakes Huawei gamble a weight on US and global equities

The Huawei Entity Listing appears to be a high stakes gamble by the US administration to counter the rise in Chinese economic power in an industry that is critical to the global economy. It is evidence that the broader economic and trade dispute will be hard to resolve, and makes it harder for China and the US to resume trade negotiations. This suggests that punitive tariffs may remain in place for much longer than expected and indeed may be expanded further. Global trade and manufacturing activity appears to have been undermined by the trade dispute, and hopes of a recovery later in the ye...

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