Amplifying Global FX Capital Pty Ltd

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We produce macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange.

These reports are drawn from analysis by Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company.

We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

We have two subscription levels for our research.  AmpGFX members receive our AmpGFX reports. These are our flagship macroeconomic analysis produced two to three times per week.  Real-Time members receive our AmpGFX reports plus Real Time Briefings.  These include our specific trading strategy, including our entry levels and related orders, and additional market commentary.

Greg Gibbs is the director and founder of Amplifying Global FX Capital. Greg began his career at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989, and in the early 1990s, he was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk.  In 1996, Greg joined Bankers Trust Australia on the FX sales desk covering Australian and international fund managers. In 1999, he joined Westpac Bank in New York and switched to the research side to become the bank’s first FX strategist based in New York, carving out a role covering major currencies. In 2002, he returned to Australia as senior FX strategist at RBC covering APAC currencies, and in 2006 he moved to ABN AMRO in Sydney, reuniting with many of his colleagues from Bankers Trust that were again part of a thriving full-service investment bank. Greg continued to work on at RBS in Sydney as senior FX strategist after it took over ABN AMRO in 2008.  He moved to Singapore in July 2012 after the bank consolidated its FX business in Asia, and was appointed Head of APAC Markets Strategy for the bank in February 2014.  In early 2015, Greg began to work on establishing his own company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, and launched its website in August 2015 after completing duties at RBS. 

Coverage

Export
Title Date
Bond yields rope-a-dope and fight back 2019/04/14
RBA’s Debelle strikes optimistic tone; remains lazer focused on the state of the labour market 2019/04/10
Yield grab supports the USD, Japanification fear weakens EUR 2019/04/04
May opens a path to unlock the Brexit Jam 2019/04/02
RBA hints at an easing bias 2019/04/02
Alternative Brexit vote on Monday may lift GBP 2019/03/30
The dollar IS the story; Gold confounds, Brexit rabbit hole; EUR punished 2019/03/28
RBNZ pressures the RBA to adopt easing bias 2019/03/27
Gold May Rise on Lower Real Ylds; Canada Leads Fall in Real Ylds; Aust Inflation Expectations Slump 2019/03/25
Labour data may snap RBA policy tension 2019/03/19
Brexit sucking up oxygen from the FX market 2019/03/13
ECB was the last straw, AUD’s hold onto 70 slipping 2019/03/11
Global manufacturing PMI slump at odds with equity and commodity price rebound 2019/03/06
Pressure on the RBA mounts 2019/02/27
US real yields fall, and the Fed wants higher inflation 2019/02/25
Gold showing the way 2019/02/20
Bearish Euro sentiment over-done 2019/02/13
RBA policy faces big test 2019/02/04
Fed completes its come-down 2019/01/30
ECB’s TLTROs enter the frame 2019/01/24
Chinese stimulus vs. a weak Australian housing market 2019/01/17
GBP rebounds as the risk of no deal diminishes 2019/01/15
USD peaking with the economic and political cycle 2019/01/09
Chinese market sentiment at a crossroad 2019/01/06
The market gives Powell a thumbs down 2018/12/19
Dollar up today, but down tomorrow? Fed and govt shut-down risk 2018/12/11
Clarida puts the ball in Powell’s court, but amenable to a pause 2018/11/27
Fed rate pause in view 2018/11/20
A grimmer view on global risks boosting the dollar 2018/11/13
The dollar and the meeting between Trump and Xi 2018/11/01
The Dollar and Mid-Term Elections 6 November 2018/11/01
ECB and Fed QE reversal in play, Credit risk dampening CNY and EUR 2018/10/18
Fundamentals battle positioning, real yields support the USD 2018/10/16
Rebounds in Asian Currencies and AUD may be short-lived 2018/10/11
Mounting risks for Eurozone and China 2018/10/09
Old Skool moves in US yields and dollar 2018/10/03
Clouds clear for CAD, but shroud EUR and AUD 2018/10/01
New Zealand GDP post-mortem – NZD still vulnerable 2018/09/20
Risks for AUD and NZD rising to the surface 2018/09/18
Wading through event risks – Trade, Brexit, Fed policy, US mid-terms 2018/09/14
The USA’s late-cycle fiscal adventure kicks-in 2018/09/11
Australian economy hitting its stride, but AUD is pricing a growth stumble 2018/09/05
RBA may tweak guidance 2018/09/03
RBA rate cut may soon be back on the table 2018/08/30
Emerging Market Chaos returns 2018/08/30
Short-term USD up-cycle clashes with approaching long-term down-cycle 2018/08/29
New Australian PM offers a path to AUD redemption 2018/08/24
US Politics – More drama than risk 2018/08/23
USD facing a negative feedback loop, JPY placed to benefit more than EUR 2018/08/21
TRL for USD; exchanging one twin deficit and populist government for another 2018/08/14
RBA and RBNZ may reveal doubts 2018/08/03
Major commodity currencies may diverge – CAD set to shine 2018/07/29
AUD – what gives? – risks and strengths 2018/07/17
QE come-back and regional forces drive JPY 2018/07/13
Bank of Canada may pick up the pace 2018/07/10
Fresh UK Political Turmoil 2018/07/09
GBP may be in a sweet spot 2018/07/08
Shifting Trump trade rhetoric may support EUR and CAD against Asian currencies 2018/07/06
Gold Confounds, A New Era of CNY Flexibility, Inflation Pressure Builds in the USA 2018/07/02
Negative feedback from US protectionist policies may boost gold 2018/06/25
Upside potential for AUD and GBP 2018/06/21
Trade war horse bolts, AUD trades like an Emerging Market Asset 2018/06/19
How Dovish will the Fed be? 2018/06/12
Add Deutsche Bank to the list of risks for the EUR and Global Markets 2018/06/08
ECB’s stepped up plans to end QE may not be good news for the EUR 2018/06/06
A bout of optimism amidst intensifying risks 2018/06/05
Euro inflation, US economy and Canada rates still on track 2018/05/30
Hardened Populist politics in Italy and the USA 2018/05/29
Strident US trade policy supporting the USD 2018/05/24
EUR and GBP fortunes may diverge 2018/05/21
Italian leaders pose a new threat to the EUR 2018/05/17
Global bond yields set to rise further 2018/05/15
AUD falls, but current news is stronger 2018/05/09
EUR Hits a New Low for 2018, Emerging Markets Under-perform 2018/05/08
Regime change for the USD; AUD breaks down 2018/05/03
Time for a EUR reality check 2018/04/25
A pervasive rise in yields may propel further USD gains 2018/04/23
AUD/NZD struggles; has NZD become less risk-sensitive? 2018/04/13
Spreads, Basis, and the USD and AUD 2018/04/05
What next for US inflation? 2018/04/02
Does anything in FX make sense anymore? 2018/03/29
USD Shrugging-Off Political Risk, AUD Headwinds and EUR Cracks 2018/03/20
US Political Risk Threatening the USD and More 2018/03/14
Trump vs. free trade orthodoxy 2018/03/08
EUR and AUD risks ignored for how long? 2018/03/06
USD tests resistance after double bottom 2018/02/28
Time for the USD to fight-back 2018/02/23
USD and US fiscal policy off-the-rails 2018/02/14
USD rebound is a creeper 2018/02/07
Bond yields in driver’s seat; time for correction in equities and the USD 2018/01/31
Stable genius or dumb luck, Trump gets a weak dollar 2018/01/24
Multiple upside risks for US bond yields 2018/01/18
The white trashing of the US dollar 2018/01/16
Forget bitcoin; the real bubble is global equities 2017/12/19
Rotation from Gold to Bitcoin 2017/12/08
USD: political risk proxy / US stocks: tax reform proxy 2017/12/01
Bitcoin – bubble or growing pains? 2017/11/29
AUD may suffer a redux of the old economy blues 2017/11/21
IT disruption driving up Asia EM currencies, GBP risk builds, AUD yield advantage gone 2017/11/17
Political risk for a number of currencies (AUD, NZD, GBP and CAD) 2017/11/14

Analysts

  • Greg Gibbs

    Director Years of Experience: 20+

Yield grab supports the USD, Japanification fear weakens EUR

FX markets are meandering with no clear trends, and it seems investors have little market conviction.  This appears to be resulting in choppy price action influenced mainly by short term technicals rather than macroeconomic developments. We have noted that in recent years the FX market has appeared to be less pre-emptive, and often responds surprisingly sharply after the event.  As such we remain wary of a reversal of recent USD strength if, as it seems increasingly likely, a negotiated trade and Brexit deal might be found relatively soon.  If there is a trend, it is a mild downtrend in the ...

Alternative Brexit vote on Monday may lift GBP

The defeat of May’s deal on Friday was narrower but still emphatic, rendering it almost dead. We see a higher probability, perhaps even a high probability, of a majority of MPs now supporting a customs union Brexit in the indicative votes on Monday. The bigger the vote, especially a majority, for a customs union will make it harder for Brexiteers in the Tory Party taking control and run the clock down to a no deal Brexit.

Gold May Rise on Lower Real Ylds; Canada Leads Fall in Real Ylds; Aust Inflation Expectations Slump

The broad decline in global bond yields and curve flattening suggest that the market has become more concerned about weak global economic growth. The fall in yields is at odds with the rise in equity and commodity prices this year, but the later may have lost upward momentum. Safe haven currencies, gold and JPY, have strengthened this week and are likely to perform well if yields remain low. US real yields have fallen more than nominal yields this year, with a partial recovery in inflation expectations from their fall in Q4 last year. Lower real yields point to weaker fundamental support fo...

ECB was the last straw, AUD’s hold onto 70 slipping

While the downgrades to the ECB outlook may not have been unexpected, they appear to have been viewed as the last straw for EUR bulls.  EUR has failed to respond to lower US rates in recent months or a moderate recovery in global risk appetite.  An expectation that ECB rates policy normalisation may take much longer may be encouraging the use of the EUR as a funding currency for ‘carry trades’.  The AUD is flirting with key support (0.70), and widespread expectation that the RBA will capitulate on its long-held reluctance to cut rates below 1.5% is weighing on the currency. Labour market data ...

Global manufacturing PMI slump at odds with equity and commodity price rebound

The slump in the global manufacturing PMIs that is broad-based in major economies and alarming in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, appears to reflect a disruption in global trade that may relate to US tariff policy. Services PMIs, on the other hand, are relatively stable and have recovered recently, and may help the global economy avoid a recession.  India’s PMIs have been relatively strong and may account for solid Indian currency and equity market performance.  The slump in the global manufacturing PMI is at odds with stronger global equities and commodity prices this year.  The market appears to be...

Yield grab supports the USD, Japanification fear weakens EUR

FX markets are meandering with no clear trends, and it seems investors have little market conviction.  This appears to be resulting in choppy price action influenced mainly by short term technicals rather than macroeconomic developments. We have noted that in recent years the FX market has appeared to be less pre-emptive, and often responds surprisingly sharply after the event.  As such we remain wary of a reversal of recent USD strength if, as it seems increasingly likely, a negotiated trade and Brexit deal might be found relatively soon.  If there is a trend, it is a mild downtrend in the ...

Alternative Brexit vote on Monday may lift GBP

The defeat of May’s deal on Friday was narrower but still emphatic, rendering it almost dead. We see a higher probability, perhaps even a high probability, of a majority of MPs now supporting a customs union Brexit in the indicative votes on Monday. The bigger the vote, especially a majority, for a customs union will make it harder for Brexiteers in the Tory Party taking control and run the clock down to a no deal Brexit.

Gold May Rise on Lower Real Ylds; Canada Leads Fall in Real Ylds; Aust Inflation Expectations Slump

The broad decline in global bond yields and curve flattening suggest that the market has become more concerned about weak global economic growth. The fall in yields is at odds with the rise in equity and commodity prices this year, but the later may have lost upward momentum. Safe haven currencies, gold and JPY, have strengthened this week and are likely to perform well if yields remain low. US real yields have fallen more than nominal yields this year, with a partial recovery in inflation expectations from their fall in Q4 last year. Lower real yields point to weaker fundamental support fo...

ECB was the last straw, AUD’s hold onto 70 slipping

While the downgrades to the ECB outlook may not have been unexpected, they appear to have been viewed as the last straw for EUR bulls.  EUR has failed to respond to lower US rates in recent months or a moderate recovery in global risk appetite.  An expectation that ECB rates policy normalisation may take much longer may be encouraging the use of the EUR as a funding currency for ‘carry trades’.  The AUD is flirting with key support (0.70), and widespread expectation that the RBA will capitulate on its long-held reluctance to cut rates below 1.5% is weighing on the currency. Labour market data ...

Global manufacturing PMI slump at odds with equity and commodity price rebound

The slump in the global manufacturing PMIs that is broad-based in major economies and alarming in Japan, Korea and Taiwan, appears to reflect a disruption in global trade that may relate to US tariff policy. Services PMIs, on the other hand, are relatively stable and have recovered recently, and may help the global economy avoid a recession.  India’s PMIs have been relatively strong and may account for solid Indian currency and equity market performance.  The slump in the global manufacturing PMI is at odds with stronger global equities and commodity prices this year.  The market appears to be...

Multiple upside risks for US bond yields

In our post on Monday (The white trashing of the US dollar), we suggested that it may be too late and dangerous to sell the USD that is falling in the face of a rising yield advantage, tax cuts that should help boost the already solid recovery path in the USA, late in its economic cycle, and potential repatriation inflows.  There may be some reasonable explanations for the USD fall, such as speculation about QE unwind in Europe and Japan, capital inflows to EM markets, and the toxic political climate in the USA.  Sentiment towards the USD appears quite bearish and may remain weak despite a str...

ResearchPool Subscriptions

Get the most out of your insights

Get in touch