Amplifying Global FX Capital Pty Ltd

Amplifying Global FX Capital was founded in 2015 and is fully owned by Greg Gibbs. It is a registered company both in Australia and Colorado, USA and is licensed in Australia to provide financial services.

We produce macroeconomic analysis of topical themes in global financial markets, with a particular focus on foreign exchange.

These reports are drawn from analysis by Greg Gibbs and inform the capital management he undertakes on behalf of the company.

We aim to build our company into both a research and capital management business. We are currently in the planning phase for managing capital for wholesale customers.

We have two subscription levels for our research.  AmpGFX members receive our AmpGFX reports. These are our flagship macroeconomic analysis produced two to three times per week.  Real-Time members receive our AmpGFX reports plus Real Time Briefings.  These include our specific trading strategy, including our entry levels and related orders, and additional market commentary.

Greg Gibbs is the director and founder of Amplifying Global FX Capital. Greg began his career at the Reserve Bank of Australia in 1989, and in the early 1990s, he was the first economics graduate at the Bank to be assigned to the foreign exchange dealing desk.  In 1996, Greg joined Bankers Trust Australia on the FX sales desk covering Australian and international fund managers. In 1999, he joined Westpac Bank in New York and switched to the research side to become the bank’s first FX strategist based in New York, carving out a role covering major currencies. In 2002, he returned to Australia as senior FX strategist at RBC covering APAC currencies, and in 2006 he moved to ABN AMRO in Sydney, reuniting with many of his colleagues from Bankers Trust that were again part of a thriving full-service investment bank. Greg continued to work on at RBS in Sydney as senior FX strategist after it took over ABN AMRO in 2008.  He moved to Singapore in July 2012 after the bank consolidated its FX business in Asia, and was appointed Head of APAC Markets Strategy for the bank in February 2014.  In early 2015, Greg began to work on establishing his own company, Amplifying Global FX Capital, and launched its website in August 2015 after completing duties at RBS. 

Coverage

  • Research Category: Currency, Rates
  • Asset Class: Currencies, Fixed Income
Export
Title Date
Bearish Euro sentiment over-done 2019/02/13
RBA policy faces big test 2019/02/04
Fed completes its come-down 2019/01/30
ECB’s TLTROs enter the frame 2019/01/24
Chinese stimulus vs. a weak Australian housing market 2019/01/17
GBP rebounds as the risk of no deal diminishes 2019/01/15
USD peaking with the economic and political cycle 2019/01/09
Chinese market sentiment at a crossroad 2019/01/06
The market gives Powell a thumbs down 2018/12/19
Dollar up today, but down tomorrow? Fed and govt shut-down risk 2018/12/11
Clarida puts the ball in Powell’s court, but amenable to a pause 2018/11/27
Fed rate pause in view 2018/11/20
A grimmer view on global risks boosting the dollar 2018/11/13
The dollar and the meeting between Trump and Xi 2018/11/01
The Dollar and Mid-Term Elections 6 November 2018/11/01
ECB and Fed QE reversal in play, Credit risk dampening CNY and EUR 2018/10/18
Fundamentals battle positioning, real yields support the USD 2018/10/16
Rebounds in Asian Currencies and AUD may be short-lived 2018/10/11
Mounting risks for Eurozone and China 2018/10/09
Old Skool moves in US yields and dollar 2018/10/03
Clouds clear for CAD, but shroud EUR and AUD 2018/10/01
New Zealand GDP post-mortem – NZD still vulnerable 2018/09/20
Risks for AUD and NZD rising to the surface 2018/09/18
Wading through event risks – Trade, Brexit, Fed policy, US mid-terms 2018/09/14
The USA’s late-cycle fiscal adventure kicks-in 2018/09/11
Australian economy hitting its stride, but AUD is pricing a growth stumble 2018/09/05
RBA may tweak guidance 2018/09/03
RBA rate cut may soon be back on the table 2018/08/30
Emerging Market Chaos returns 2018/08/30
Short-term USD up-cycle clashes with approaching long-term down-cycle 2018/08/29
New Australian PM offers a path to AUD redemption 2018/08/24
US Politics – More drama than risk 2018/08/23
USD facing a negative feedback loop, JPY placed to benefit more than EUR 2018/08/21
TRL for USD; exchanging one twin deficit and populist government for another 2018/08/14
RBA and RBNZ may reveal doubts 2018/08/03
Major commodity currencies may diverge – CAD set to shine 2018/07/29
AUD – what gives? – risks and strengths 2018/07/17
QE come-back and regional forces drive JPY 2018/07/13
Bank of Canada may pick up the pace 2018/07/10
Fresh UK Political Turmoil 2018/07/09
GBP may be in a sweet spot 2018/07/08
Shifting Trump trade rhetoric may support EUR and CAD against Asian currencies 2018/07/06
Gold Confounds, A New Era of CNY Flexibility, Inflation Pressure Builds in the USA 2018/07/02
Negative feedback from US protectionist policies may boost gold 2018/06/25
Upside potential for AUD and GBP 2018/06/21
Trade war horse bolts, AUD trades like an Emerging Market Asset 2018/06/19
How Dovish will the Fed be? 2018/06/12
Add Deutsche Bank to the list of risks for the EUR and Global Markets 2018/06/08
ECB’s stepped up plans to end QE may not be good news for the EUR 2018/06/06
A bout of optimism amidst intensifying risks 2018/06/05
Euro inflation, US economy and Canada rates still on track 2018/05/30
Hardened Populist politics in Italy and the USA 2018/05/29
Strident US trade policy supporting the USD 2018/05/24
EUR and GBP fortunes may diverge 2018/05/21
Italian leaders pose a new threat to the EUR 2018/05/17
Global bond yields set to rise further 2018/05/15
AUD falls, but current news is stronger 2018/05/09
EUR Hits a New Low for 2018, Emerging Markets Under-perform 2018/05/08
Regime change for the USD; AUD breaks down 2018/05/03
Time for a EUR reality check 2018/04/25
A pervasive rise in yields may propel further USD gains 2018/04/23
AUD/NZD struggles; has NZD become less risk-sensitive? 2018/04/13
Spreads, Basis, and the USD and AUD 2018/04/05
What next for US inflation? 2018/04/02
Does anything in FX make sense anymore? 2018/03/29
USD Shrugging-Off Political Risk, AUD Headwinds and EUR Cracks 2018/03/20
US Political Risk Threatening the USD and More 2018/03/14
Trump vs. free trade orthodoxy 2018/03/08
EUR and AUD risks ignored for how long? 2018/03/06
USD tests resistance after double bottom 2018/02/28
Time for the USD to fight-back 2018/02/23
USD and US fiscal policy off-the-rails 2018/02/14
USD rebound is a creeper 2018/02/07
Bond yields in driver’s seat; time for correction in equities and the USD 2018/01/31
Stable genius or dumb luck, Trump gets a weak dollar 2018/01/24
Multiple upside risks for US bond yields 2018/01/18
The white trashing of the US dollar 2018/01/16
Forget bitcoin; the real bubble is global equities 2017/12/19
Rotation from Gold to Bitcoin 2017/12/08
USD: political risk proxy / US stocks: tax reform proxy 2017/12/01
Bitcoin – bubble or growing pains? 2017/11/29
AUD may suffer a redux of the old economy blues 2017/11/21
IT disruption driving up Asia EM currencies, GBP risk builds, AUD yield advantage gone 2017/11/17
Political risk for a number of currencies (AUD, NZD, GBP and CAD) 2017/11/14
Diverging EM assets and currencies, Global investor jitters, AUD Vulnerable 2017/11/10
RBNZ Governor Spencer thrown into the deep end 2017/11/06
Bank of England Sets Glacial Hike Projections 2017/11/02
Without tax reform division may swamp the USD 2017/10/31
Major moves afoot (EUR, CAD, NZD & AUD) 2017/10/26
Bank of Canada on hold this time 2017/10/24
ECB unlikely to over-deliver on taper 2017/10/23

Analysts

  • Greg Gibbs

    Director Years of Experience: 20+

Bearish Euro sentiment over-done

We have turned our attention to the EUR in recent days, watching it break a key support on Monday (falling through 1.1300).  Its performance has been undermined by surprisingly weak activity data, and uncertainty over the state of the Chinese economy and global trade growth.  However, the Eurozone had a run of bad luck in 2018; including the yellow vest protests, Italian political turmoil, auto sector disruption, weak close neighbour emerging markets, and a slump in export markets.  Heightened uncertainty over US-China trade relations, China economy fears, and Brexit has further dampened marke...

RBA policy faces big test

Today the RBA releases its latest policy meeting statement.  This is followed by a speech by RBA Governor Lowe on Wednesday, and the release of the RBA quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) on Friday, where it updates its medium-term forecasts. A lot has changed A lot has changed in the last two months since the previous RBA policy meeting on 4-Dec, and its previous SoMP on 8-Nov.  This is an important juncture for the RBA to set policy guidance after a tumultuous end to last year.

Fed completes its come-down

The Fed’s newfound sensitivity to global economic and financial market risks has boosted global asset markets and softened the USD.  These moves may be limited by the still substantial global uncertainty over US trade policy, surprisingly weak economic data in Europe and China, tensions surrounding US legal action against Huawei, tech sector headwinds, Brexit, and a more toxic US political environment.  However, we would not be surprised to see a period of weaker USD trading unfold, especially if the US administration and China see progress in trade talks this week.

ECB’s TLTROs enter the frame

The market appears somewhat prepared for a dovish tilt in the ECB policy meeting on Thursday.  This may involve an acknowledgement of downside risks to their outlook.  It does not appear that the market expects any significant change in the key policy guidance on rates at this time, but it is possible that the ECB extends its expected period before a hike further to push rate hike expectations beyond this year.  The topic of TLTROs may come up in questioning.  The ECB may be mulling announcing a fresh series of TLTRO as soon as the March policy meeting.  This should be seen largely as extendin...

Chinese stimulus vs. a weak Australian housing market

The multipronged stimulus policy announcement in China appears significant and should help Chinese investor and economic confidence recover.  The market is probably braced for weaker Chinese December activity reports next week and should look forward with some increased confidence in Chinese equities.  This is likely to contribute to a firmer outlook for the EUR that has suffered from a slump in its industrial activity that appears to reflect weaker demand from China.  The AUD has been highly correlated with Chinese equities in the last year, and it may also respond positively to prospects for...

Bearish Euro sentiment over-done

We have turned our attention to the EUR in recent days, watching it break a key support on Monday (falling through 1.1300).  Its performance has been undermined by surprisingly weak activity data, and uncertainty over the state of the Chinese economy and global trade growth.  However, the Eurozone had a run of bad luck in 2018; including the yellow vest protests, Italian political turmoil, auto sector disruption, weak close neighbour emerging markets, and a slump in export markets.  Heightened uncertainty over US-China trade relations, China economy fears, and Brexit has further dampened marke...

RBA policy faces big test

Today the RBA releases its latest policy meeting statement.  This is followed by a speech by RBA Governor Lowe on Wednesday, and the release of the RBA quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy (SoMP) on Friday, where it updates its medium-term forecasts. A lot has changed A lot has changed in the last two months since the previous RBA policy meeting on 4-Dec, and its previous SoMP on 8-Nov.  This is an important juncture for the RBA to set policy guidance after a tumultuous end to last year.

Fed completes its come-down

The Fed’s newfound sensitivity to global economic and financial market risks has boosted global asset markets and softened the USD.  These moves may be limited by the still substantial global uncertainty over US trade policy, surprisingly weak economic data in Europe and China, tensions surrounding US legal action against Huawei, tech sector headwinds, Brexit, and a more toxic US political environment.  However, we would not be surprised to see a period of weaker USD trading unfold, especially if the US administration and China see progress in trade talks this week.

ECB’s TLTROs enter the frame

The market appears somewhat prepared for a dovish tilt in the ECB policy meeting on Thursday.  This may involve an acknowledgement of downside risks to their outlook.  It does not appear that the market expects any significant change in the key policy guidance on rates at this time, but it is possible that the ECB extends its expected period before a hike further to push rate hike expectations beyond this year.  The topic of TLTROs may come up in questioning.  The ECB may be mulling announcing a fresh series of TLTRO as soon as the March policy meeting.  This should be seen largely as extendin...

Chinese stimulus vs. a weak Australian housing market

The multipronged stimulus policy announcement in China appears significant and should help Chinese investor and economic confidence recover.  The market is probably braced for weaker Chinese December activity reports next week and should look forward with some increased confidence in Chinese equities.  This is likely to contribute to a firmer outlook for the EUR that has suffered from a slump in its industrial activity that appears to reflect weaker demand from China.  The AUD has been highly correlated with Chinese equities in the last year, and it may also respond positively to prospects for...

Global bond yields set to rise further

We see higher US and global yields developing.  Global equity market confidence may be returning, supported by conciliatory moves on US trade relationships with China, stability returning to the USD after a recent rebound, and a likely rebound in global economic reports in Q2.  Oil and broader commodity prices remain elevated and are indicative of higher demand.  They may further boost global inflation expectations.  Wage growth is rising more clearly in the major economies experiencing tightening labour markets.  

Multiple upside risks for US bond yields

In our post on Monday (The white trashing of the US dollar), we suggested that it may be too late and dangerous to sell the USD that is falling in the face of a rising yield advantage, tax cuts that should help boost the already solid recovery path in the USA, late in its economic cycle, and potential repatriation inflows.  There may be some reasonable explanations for the USD fall, such as speculation about QE unwind in Europe and Japan, capital inflows to EM markets, and the toxic political climate in the USA.  Sentiment towards the USD appears quite bearish and may remain weak despite a str...

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