Akseer Research (Pvt) Limited

Akseer is a Research & Analytics firm based out of Pakistan that specializes in Equity Research and Corporate Finance. Our team has exposure to a wide range of sectors including Economy, Banking, Telecommunications, Retail, Real Estate, Construction and Materials, Pharmaceuticals, Food, Energy, Chemicals and Petrochemicals. We have experience of covering companies in Middle East, Americas, Far East and South Asia.

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Export
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Analysts

  • Uzair Shaikh

    N/A
  • Muhib Ur Rasool

    N/A
  • Fariya Saleem

    N/A
  • Musadiq Jawaid

    N/A
  • Sagar Karera

    N/A
  • Usama Qamar Nizami

    N/A
  • Sohaib Subzwari

    N/A
  • Akseer Research

    N/A
  • Saad Nandia

    N/A

Power Tariffs: Full cost recovery is not too far away

Power Tariffs: Full cost recovery is not too far away The recently approved IMF program has energy sector reforms as one of its key elements, with a focus on depoliticizing gas and power tariffs and gradually bringing the sector to full cost recovery over the program period. This is in contrast to the general perception that IMF may warrant energy sector full cost recovery as a precondition. We thought it would thus be useful to map the future path of electricity tariffs by compiling the planned capacity additions, their respective additional capacity payments and fuel cost savings. We pres...

Kekra - 01: Making sense of the hype

A substantial amount of hype has been created around the recently commenced offshore exploratory drilling of Kekra-01 in Offshore Indus-G block. We, hence, thought it would be useful to reach out to industry experts and conduct some international benchmarking, to better understand prospects of Kekra-01 in the most objective manner possible. We share our findings in this piece

Akseer Research ...
  • Musadiq Jawaid

Auto sector update: Are volumes approaching an off-the-cliff fall?

Passenger car sales during 5MFY19 rose 1.0% YoY, which allowed listed automobile manufacturers to limit decline in volumes to 2.0% YoY during the period. Amid dismal volumetric performance by other vehicle categories (declines for LCVs, HCVs, Tractors and three wheelers ranged from -13% to -26%, while M/Cycles sales have remained flat), the outperformance of passenger car segment is likely to have been driven by 1) large order book at the start of the year, 2) pre-buying resulting from pre-announced and staggered price increases. That said, the delivery periods of ‘The Big-3’ OEMs have almos...

Akseer Research ...
  • Fariya Saleem

FFL: Short term headwinds change our stance to SELL

We change our recommendation to SELL on Fauji Foods Limited (FFL) due to a downward earnings revision for CY18, where we expect the gross margins to drag the profitability. Resultantly, we slash our Jun-19 PT to PKR 30/share, which indicates a downside of 11% from LDCP. We expect FFL liquid products’ sales to grow 57% YoY during CY18 on the back of increase in both UHT milk and Tea Whitener sales. Company’s market share in both the categories is likely to settle in at 7.0% and 24.0%, respectively during the period which is expected to grow on YoY basis due to strong marketing effort by th...

Akseer Research ...
  • Musadiq Jawaid

MTL: Increase in cost pressures amid diminishing volumes, HOLD

We revisit our investment case of MTL where we have revised down our Jun-19 price target PT to PKR 754/Share. Our PT implies a downside of 14.2% along with a dividend yield of 10.6%. The stock is valued rich and trading at PER of 9. 4x based upon strong dividend pay-outs history. We recommend ‘HOLD’. We expect the company’s bottom-line to grow by 6.2% per annum during FY19-23 on the back of 1) diffident growth in sales volumes 2) unsustainability of current historic high gross margins of above 20%. We expect margins to come under pressure owing to PKR devaluation and rising steel & other ...

Kekra - 01: Making sense of the hype

A substantial amount of hype has been created around the recently commenced offshore exploratory drilling of Kekra-01 in Offshore Indus-G block. We, hence, thought it would be useful to reach out to industry experts and conduct some international benchmarking, to better understand prospects of Kekra-01 in the most objective manner possible. We share our findings in this piece

Akseer Research ...
  • Musadiq Jawaid

Auto sector update: Are volumes approaching an off-the-cliff fall?

Passenger car sales during 5MFY19 rose 1.0% YoY, which allowed listed automobile manufacturers to limit decline in volumes to 2.0% YoY during the period. Amid dismal volumetric performance by other vehicle categories (declines for LCVs, HCVs, Tractors and three wheelers ranged from -13% to -26%, while M/Cycles sales have remained flat), the outperformance of passenger car segment is likely to have been driven by 1) large order book at the start of the year, 2) pre-buying resulting from pre-announced and staggered price increases. That said, the delivery periods of ‘The Big-3’ OEMs have almos...

Akseer Research ...
  • Fariya Saleem

FFL: Short term headwinds change our stance to SELL

We change our recommendation to SELL on Fauji Foods Limited (FFL) due to a downward earnings revision for CY18, where we expect the gross margins to drag the profitability. Resultantly, we slash our Jun-19 PT to PKR 30/share, which indicates a downside of 11% from LDCP. We expect FFL liquid products’ sales to grow 57% YoY during CY18 on the back of increase in both UHT milk and Tea Whitener sales. Company’s market share in both the categories is likely to settle in at 7.0% and 24.0%, respectively during the period which is expected to grow on YoY basis due to strong marketing effort by th...

Akseer Research ...
  • Musadiq Jawaid

MTL: Increase in cost pressures amid diminishing volumes, HOLD

We revisit our investment case of MTL where we have revised down our Jun-19 price target PT to PKR 754/Share. Our PT implies a downside of 14.2% along with a dividend yield of 10.6%. The stock is valued rich and trading at PER of 9. 4x based upon strong dividend pay-outs history. We recommend ‘HOLD’. We expect the company’s bottom-line to grow by 6.2% per annum during FY19-23 on the back of 1) diffident growth in sales volumes 2) unsustainability of current historic high gross margins of above 20%. We expect margins to come under pressure owing to PKR devaluation and rising steel & other ...

Akseer Research ...
  • Uzair Shaikh

MARI: Growth to gain momentum in FY19

▪ We initiate our coverage on MARI with a Jun-19 price target (PT) of PKR 2,062/share. Out PT provides a potential upside of 53% along with 0.5% dividend yield. The stock is currently trading at FY19 PER of 5.6x. We have assumed oil prices at USD 60/bbl for FY19 and USD 60/bbl for the long term, whereas, our Jun-19 end PKR/USD assumption stands at 145.▪ MARI HRL reservoir is estimated to maintain a plateau of 650mmcfd till Jul-23, against previous estimates of 640mmcfd plateau which was projected to end in Feb-19. This eliminates concerns over subdued earnings due to low production volumes. Ad...

Federal Budget 2018-19: Massive reforms ahead of the elections

Federal Budget 2018-19: Massive reforms ahead of the elections Contrary to its populist appearance, Federal Budget FY19 is NOT a populist election year budget. It restricts non-filers of tax returns from purchasing all new motor vehicles, and property valued above PKR 4.0mn. Non-tax filers comprise 98% of Pakistan’s labor force. The budget introduces substantial punitive measures for concealment of foreign / domestic income / assets, thereby enhancing incentives to avail the amnesty scheme which has also been made a part of the finance bill, along with the measures to document the real estate...

Power Tariffs: Full cost recovery is not too far away

Power Tariffs: Full cost recovery is not too far away The recently approved IMF program has energy sector reforms as one of its key elements, with a focus on depoliticizing gas and power tariffs and gradually bringing the sector to full cost recovery over the program period. This is in contrast to the general perception that IMF may warrant energy sector full cost recovery as a precondition. We thought it would thus be useful to map the future path of electricity tariffs by compiling the planned capacity additions, their respective additional capacity payments and fuel cost savings. We pres...

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