Report
EUR 9.08 For Business Accounts Only

Pakistan Economy: All good things come to an end

  • Economic Survey 2018-19 rolled out by the PTI gov’t shows a weak economic landscape for FY19 (provisional, spanning July-May’19), with the gov’t missing all major targets including GDP growth, inflation, revenue collection, budget deficit, savings and investments by a wide margin.
  • FY19 marks an end to the late upcycle, where economic growth hit a nine-year low at 3.3%YoY compared to 5.5% in FY18, missing an overly ambitious target of 6.2%, expectedly out-of-place in a year of numerous transitions.
  • This ongoing economic slowdown is primarily a consequence of (drastic, but warranted) stabilization measures undertaken by policy makers to arrest widening macro-imbalances (i.e. CAD and fiscal deficit).
  • Sector-wise, all major macro constituents considerably underperformed, with agriculture, industrial and services sectors registering paltry growth of 0.85%YoY, 1.4%YoY and 4.7%YoY against respective targets of 3.8%YoY, 7.6%YoY and 6.5%YoY.
  • While macro-adjustments undertaken so far have brought some stability, we believe persistent policy measures (along similar lines) are required to subdue chronic deficits to manageable territory.
  • We highlight Budget FY20 as a key checkpoint in assessing both the authorities’ will to continue prescribed reforms (dictated to various degrees by the IMF)  to address chronic deficits and the impact of fiscal consolidation on economic outlook (i.e. growth, inflation and interest rates).
Provider
AKD Securities Limited
AKD Securities Limited

AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the leading securities firm in Pakistan, providing a comprehensive range of investor focused services, including equity brokerage, economic and securities research, investment banking and financial advisory services. AKD Securities accounts for more than 6% of the average daily value of the Karachi Stock Exchange. AKD Securities was the first brokerage house to launch an online trading platform in Pakistan in November 2002 and now has the largest market share with over 6000 customers. This has helped diversify and expand the retail investor base in the country and ushered in a whole new universe of investors to the stock market.

AKD Securities Ltd. caters to a diversified group of domestic and international institutional investors, high net worth individuals and upscale retail clients, including expatriate Pakistanis. With high quality research, unparalleled execution and distribution capability for both regular and large block trades, AKD Securities Ltd. has earned an outstanding reputation in the Pakistani securities industry.Outside of commercial banks, AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the biggest capital market firms in the country. AKD Securities is the leader in raising and providing risk capital in underwriting, market making and mergers and acquisitions in Pakistan. Good corporate governance and professionalism are emphasized throughout the firm and AKD Securities Ltd. is amongst the very few companies to have introduced a firm-wide comprehensive CODE of ETHICS, overseen by an independent compliance manager.Ultimately, our success is based on the quality of service we provide to our customers and the trust and confidence reposed in us by them. Our focus, therefore, remains on customer satisfaction at all levels in the company.

Analysts
Umer Farooq

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