AKD Securities Limited

AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the leading securities firm in Pakistan, providing a comprehensive range of investor focused services, including equity brokerage, economic and securities research, investment banking and financial advisory services. AKD Securities accounts for more than 6% of the average daily value of the Karachi Stock Exchange. AKD Securities was the first brokerage house to launch an online trading platform in Pakistan in November 2002 and now has the largest market share with over 6000 customers. This has helped diversify and expand the retail investor base in the country and ushered in a whole new universe of investors to the stock market.

AKD Securities Ltd. caters to a diversified group of domestic and international institutional investors, high net worth individuals and upscale retail clients, including expatriate Pakistanis. With high quality research, unparalleled execution and distribution capability for both regular and large block trades, AKD Securities Ltd. has earned an outstanding reputation in the Pakistani securities industry.Outside of commercial banks, AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the biggest capital market firms in the country. AKD Securities is the leader in raising and providing risk capital in underwriting, market making and mergers and acquisitions in Pakistan. Good corporate governance and professionalism are emphasized throughout the firm and AKD Securities Ltd. is amongst the very few companies to have introduced a firm-wide comprehensive CODE of ETHICS, overseen by an independent compliance manager.Ultimately, our success is based on the quality of service we provide to our customers and the trust and confidence reposed in us by them. Our focus, therefore, remains on customer satisfaction at all levels in the company.

Coverage

Export
Ticker Underlying First Report Latest Report
00339 BMG2900P1538 CoreEconomy Investment Group Limited 2019/07/17 2019/07/17
024850 KR7024850000 PSMC Co Ltd 2018/07/24 2018/10/04
1108 TW0001108009 Lucky Cement Co. 2017/08/31 2019/07/19
A112MK PK0099701010 Engro Fertilizers 2017/10/20 2019/09/12
ABL PK0083501012 Allied Bank Ltd. 2019/05/08 2019/05/08
APL PK0082901015 Attock Petroleum 2017/10/06 2019/07/26
ASTL PK0100401014 Amreli Steels 2017/08/30 2019/10/15
BAFL PK0078701015 Bank Alfalah 2017/09/20 2019/10/16
BAHL PK0051601018 Bank AL-Habib 2019/03/29 2019/12/12
BBSCABLES BD0242BBSCL4 BBS Cables 2019/07/29 2019/07/29
BOP PK0045001010 The Bank of Punjab 2019/09/13 2019/11/18
CHCC PK0029801013 Cherat Cement Co. 2019/09/12 2019/09/12
DGKC PK0052401012 D.G. Khan Cement Co. 2017/09/01 2019/11/15
ENGRO PK0012101017 Engro 2017/08/21 2017/08/21
EPCL PK0092201018 Engro Polymer & Chemicals Ltd. 2019/10/17 2019/10/17
FATIMA PK0091601010 Fatima Fertilizer Co. Ltd. 2017/10/30 2019/06/26
FCCL PK0074501013 Fauji Cement 2017/10/27 2019/11/22
FCEPL PK0096501017 Engro Foods 2017/09/25 2018/05/16
FFBL PK0074601011 Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Ltd. 2017/11/21 2019/11/06
FFC PK0053401011 Fauji Fertilizer Co. Ltd. 2017/09/22 2019/11/27
HASCOL PK0108001014 Hascol Petroleum 2017/08/25 2019/12/13
HBL PK0085101019 Habib Bank 2017/08/22 2019/10/11
HCAR PK0064901017 Honda Atlas Cars (Pakistan) Ltd. 2017/12/14 2018/03/13
HMB PK0055401019 Habib Metropolitan Bank 2019/04/05 2019/04/05
HUBC PK0065001015 Hub Power Co. Ltd. 2017/10/26 2019/11/01
INDU PK0054501017 Industrial Motor Co. 2017/09/11 2018/07/12
KAPCO PK0083101011 Kot Addu Power 2017/08/18 2019/11/20
KESC PK0000501012 K-Electric 2017/10/16 2018/07/06
LUCK PK0071501016 Lucky Cement Ltd. 2017/10/13 2019/11/26
MCB PK0055601014 MCB Bank 2017/11/16 2018/03/29
MEBL PK0077401013 Meezan Bank Ltd. 2019/07/11 2019/09/13
MLCF PK0066201010 Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd. 2017/10/03 2019/12/05
MLCFR PK0066203065 Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd 2018/03/02 2018/03/02
NBP PK0078001010 National Bank of Pakistan 2018/02/14 2018/02/14
NCL PK0048001017 Nishat Chunian 2017/09/15 2018/08/09
NCPL PK0098301010 Nishat Chunian Power Ltd. 2017/10/10 2017/10/10
NML PK0005501017 Nishat Mills Ltd. 2017/08/24 2019/10/28
OGDC PK0080201012 Oil & Gas Development 2017/08/23 2019/12/13
PAEL PK0034601010 Pak Elektron 2017/11/24 2019/10/31
PIOC PK0056201012 Pioneer Cement Ltd. 2017/09/19 2017/09/19
POL PK0023901017 Pakistan Oilfields Ltd. 2017/11/03 2019/01/22
PPL PK0081801018 Pakistan Petroleum Ltd. 2017/11/20 2019/10/29
PRL PK0004701014 Pak Refinery Ltd 2019/09/13 2019/09/13
PSMC PK0030501016 Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd. 2017/08/18 2019/12/11
PSO PK0022501016 Pakistan State Oil Co. 2017/08/09 2019/10/02
S44 SG1H26001476 EnGro Corp. Ltd. 2017/12/11 2019/01/25
SHEL PK0016701010 Shell Pakistan Ltd. 2018/06/05 2018/06/05
SSGC PK0002801014 Sui Southern Gas Co. Ltd. 2019/06/25 2019/06/25
TPLI PK0084001012 TPL Insurance 2019/12/03 2019/12/03
TRG PK0079201015 TRG Pakistan 2017/11/30 2017/11/30
UBL PK0081901016 United Bank 2017/08/10 2018/03/15
UBLS US90953P2011 United Bank Ltd/Pakistan (GDR) 2018/02/14 2019/11/28
UNITY PK0068801015 Unity Foods 2019/12/09 2019/12/09
WTL PK0084301016 WorldCall Telecom 2017/12/29 2017/12/29

Analysts

  • Ali Asghar Poonawala

    Sr. Investment Analyst
  • Team AKD Research

    Investment Analyst
  • Umer Farooq

    Investment Analyst
  • Hamza Kamal

    Sr. Investment Analyst
  • Usman Zahid

    Director Research
  • Ailia Naeem

    Sr. Investment Analyst
  • Shahrukh Saleem

    N/A
Team AKD Research

AKD STOCK SMART, Dec 13, 2019

StockSmart                        Weekly Review                                 The KSE-100 closed at 40,917pts, up 0.45% WoW, cooling down after a stellar 14% bullish momentum in Nov’19. Following Moody’s upgrade of Pakistan’s outlook from ‘Negative’ to ‘Stable’ last week, Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced US$1.3bn budgetary support to Pakistan – the funds came in mid-week. Despite sukuk payment of US$1bn in early Dec’19, forex reserves are reportedly expected to touch 8 month high of US$10.4bn. On the same note, IMF’s board meeting, scheduled on 19th Nov’19, is expected to be followe...

Shahrukh Saleem

APL_Performance captures fundamentals, (AKD Daily, Dec 13, 2019)

Steady stream of cash flows (grounded in retail fuels), high local refinery upliftment and strong network in Northern markets insulating against influx of grey product form the basis of our Buy stance on Attock Petroleum Limited (APL). Despite the recent rally in stock (returning 69% from CYTD low), we still see some upside with our Dec’20 TP of PkR433.9/sh offering a total return of 21% (Upside: 14.4%,; dividend yield: 6.9.4%) . APL has 86% of its retail outlets in North compared to 75/63% of PSO/HASCOL and consequently due to higher consumption of HSD in the North, company also enjoys the ...

BAHL: 'Buy' stance maintained, (AKD Daily, Dec 12, 2019)

We reiterate our Buy stance on Bank Alhabib Limited (BAHL) while incorporating management guidance on branch network (800 branches by CY20-end) and rolling over our TP to Dec’20 — Current TP: PkR93.3/sh vs. PkR97.6/sh previously. Our liking for the stock is premised upon, i) ROE remaining ~20% over the medium term vs. 18.8% of our universe, ii) new branches beginning to roll deposits, and iii) cost efficiency with cost to income falling to historical avg. of

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Autos: Slipping through the durable demand net, (AKD Daily, Dec 11, 2019)

Nov’19 total industry sales stood at 10,223 units (-9%MoM/-44%YoY) comprising of Passenger Cars sales of 8,524 units (-11%MoM/-44%YoY), LCV/Pickup offtake of 1,316 units (-3%MoM/-39%YoY) and new Tractor purchases of 1,818 (-36%MoM/-52%YoY), marking a period of continued weakness in sectoral demand. Monthly sales declines in PC and LCV segments remained stark, where the segment-wise split stands at 3,430/1,555/3,539 for 1300CC+/1000CC/800CC & below segments, shifting +8%/-9%/-25%MoM and -59%/-57%/+9%YoY, while major OEMs underwent monthly sales moves of -16%/+6%/-6%MoM for PSMC/INDU/HCAR Cumu...

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Commodities: Mixed sentiments cut short commodity rally, (AKD Daily, Dec 10, 2019)

Moderating global economic indicators coupled with relatively stable services and consumption growth has kept central bank action at the forefront, while commodity prices have remained sanguine, signified by the TRJ index softening by a minor clip (down 0.13%MoM) Through a series of missives between China and the US regarding a “phase-one deal”, trade pathways are largely re-orienting away from these heavyweights, as the EU gains prominence and global trading bodies such as the WTO lose in the evolving global trading order Energy commodities continued their climb higher, with crude prices ri...

Team AKD Research

AKD STOCK SMART

Faltering under mounting macro risks and pressured by significant headline risks, the KSE-100 index continued its FYTD tumble, slipping 7.1%WoW to close at 29,429pts, dropping below the physcological 30K mark after a span of five years. Key news flows during the week included: 1) to avoid US$30mn penalty under Take or Pay mechanism and reduce the volume of demurrages, the GoP has minimized FO and coal based power generation to ensure maximum intake of RLNG, 2) FBR announced that it will not take any adverse action against traders on the condition of provision of CNIC numbers till September 30,...

Ali Asghar Poonawala ...
  • Hamza Kamal

Pakistan Strategy_ Perfect storm of risks clouds fundamentals

Week to date decline of 6.1% cover a period of depressed price performance for stocks, with volumes and returns closely resembling FY08-09, a period of record weakness in equity market performance, highlighting the multi-faceted nature of the prevailing market sell-off We segment news reports and policy actions during the year into macro and sectoral items, while underlining the broad pressures at play on both fronts forcing investors to hunker down, refrain from building fresh positions and induce outflows from institutional investors Guiding market sentiment, these developments have broadl...

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Commodities_July’19 Signals prolonged deceleration

  Global economic growth entered a late-cycle slowdown in the outgoing month, as US China trade tensions creeped into consumer and business confidence while global trade metrics (CPB World Trade monitor slowing from Oct’18 onwards) deteriorated at their fastest pace since the Global Financial Crisis. Signaling weakness in global economic outlook, the US Fed cut its policy rate, it’s first since 2008, signaling the precautionary commencement of a new round of global monetary easing (followed recently by India, Thailand and New Zealand), while steeper inversion in US bond markets illustrate...

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Commodities: Risk of slowdown aggravates global markets

Amidst the continued easing of global economic activity, looming threats of tariffs and most leading indicators of consumer/producer confidence softening, extending volatility to global commodity markets where the TRJ Commodity index moved +3.3%MoM but remaining lower by -9.6%YoY. The most direct impact of trade tensions yet was witnessed in slowing PMI numbers from China, India, Germany, while a downturn in consumer confidence readings from the US indicate significant spillovers from a potential trade tussle between the US and Chine, where on the flipside, ASEAN nations witnessed significant...

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Commodities: Global commodities witnessing mixed trends,

Global commodities printed a mixed trend where a host of factors including slow demand growth in China and tight supply conditions in oil market contributed to the cause. Resultantly, TRJ Commodities Index remained flat with a change of -0.7%. Energy commodities were led by rising crude prices (Arab Light/Brent was up 7.0/6.4% MoM) as US State Department decided against extension waiver on imports from Iran, while Richard's Bay coal prices dipped 12.95%MoM with weak imports from China proving to be a major dampener. Amongst soft commodities, the FAO food price index climbed 1.8%MoM gaining ...

Pakistan Economy: Drastic measures make for an unruly quarter

Headline inflation continues its upward trajectory, with the upcoming Jun'19 reading expected to touch a multi-year high of 9.65%YoY vs. 9.11%YoY in the preceding month and 5.21%YoY in Jun'18. Sequentially, the consumer price index is likely to go up by 1.06%MoM. Inflationary pressures are primarily stemming from i) rising food prices (food index: up 1.77%MoM), ii) higher retail fuel prices pushed by PkR weakness (transport index: up 1.86%MoM) and iii) general price hike in certain categories (i.e. tobacco & sugar) in anticipation of FY20 budget. With macro-adjustments (i.e. both in fiscal a...

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Strategy: Another round on the IMF rollercoaster

Sticking with the trend established in previous programs, the release highlighted some structural benchmarks, namely: 1) Budget FY20 aims to limit primary deficit to 0.6% of GDP, 2) support autonomy of SBP to continue stabilization measures, 3) improve tax collections, administration and modernization of public finance management framework, and 4) long term goals of continued stability measures enacted prior to this program, accompanied by moves to maintain institutional autonomy. Confirming the much-awaited staff-level agreement, the IMF in a press release issued yesterday laid out the ‘bare...

Ali Asghar Poonawala

OMCs_1QCY18 Retail Operations Update

Transportations sector demand continues to remain firmly in the driver seat for OMC volumes, as power sector demand takes the long spiral down (secular, gradual decline in FO sales, where we expect FY19-21F sales declining at CAGR of 21%). Throughput calculations suggest an uptrend in retail volumes moved, where the industry's average quarterly volume sales per outlet stood at 828.6K ltrs/outlet (+18%QoQ/+10%YoY). Daily average throughput per retail output clocked at 9,207ltrs/day where 10.3%YoY climb drives home the growth of supply chain and storage to buttress growing retail POL volumes. HA...

Pakistan Economy: Growth remains on track

Based on provisional PBS data for 8MFY18, the GoP expects GDP growth for FY18E to settle at 5.8%YoY crossing the 11 year high-watermark for growth vs 5.4%YoY (revised upwards) in FY17A. Key catalysts for growth remain ongoing implementation of early harvest infrastructure projects under the ambit of CPEC, net energy supply growth (net generated units up 11.3%YoY for 8MFY18), and sustained credit uptick (8MFY18 private sector credit stock grew 9.9% since Jun’17, adding PkR391.3bn offtake during the period increasing 8.3%YoY). Ancillary support factors including contained law and order situation...

Pakistan Economy: Rupee depreciation is a blessing in disguise

The Rupee depreciated another 4.4% against the greenback yesterday with interbank rate ending at PkR115.5/US$ reflecting existing pressures on the external front and central bank's reserves declining to US$12.13bn (down US$1.98bn CYTD; import cover: 2.69x). With regards to the external sector, as per latest data 8MFY18 CAD surged to its highest level ever at US$10.83bn (up 50.3%YoY) vs US$7.22bn in 8MFY17. While devaluation is likely to ease off pressures on external account in the long run (weaker rupee shall restore export competitiveness apart from impeding import growth), CAD at such high ...

Team AKD Research

AKD STOCK SMART, Dec 13, 2019

StockSmart                        Weekly Review                                 The KSE-100 closed at 40,917pts, up 0.45% WoW, cooling down after a stellar 14% bullish momentum in Nov’19. Following Moody’s upgrade of Pakistan’s outlook from ‘Negative’ to ‘Stable’ last week, Asian Development Bank (ADB) announced US$1.3bn budgetary support to Pakistan – the funds came in mid-week. Despite sukuk payment of US$1bn in early Dec’19, forex reserves are reportedly expected to touch 8 month high of US$10.4bn. On the same note, IMF’s board meeting, scheduled on 19th Nov’19, is expected to be followe...

Shahrukh Saleem

APL_Performance captures fundamentals, (AKD Daily, Dec 13, 2019)

Steady stream of cash flows (grounded in retail fuels), high local refinery upliftment and strong network in Northern markets insulating against influx of grey product form the basis of our Buy stance on Attock Petroleum Limited (APL). Despite the recent rally in stock (returning 69% from CYTD low), we still see some upside with our Dec’20 TP of PkR433.9/sh offering a total return of 21% (Upside: 14.4%,; dividend yield: 6.9.4%) . APL has 86% of its retail outlets in North compared to 75/63% of PSO/HASCOL and consequently due to higher consumption of HSD in the North, company also enjoys the ...

BAHL: 'Buy' stance maintained, (AKD Daily, Dec 12, 2019)

We reiterate our Buy stance on Bank Alhabib Limited (BAHL) while incorporating management guidance on branch network (800 branches by CY20-end) and rolling over our TP to Dec’20 — Current TP: PkR93.3/sh vs. PkR97.6/sh previously. Our liking for the stock is premised upon, i) ROE remaining ~20% over the medium term vs. 18.8% of our universe, ii) new branches beginning to roll deposits, and iii) cost efficiency with cost to income falling to historical avg. of

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Autos: Slipping through the durable demand net, (AKD Daily, Dec 11, 2019)

Nov’19 total industry sales stood at 10,223 units (-9%MoM/-44%YoY) comprising of Passenger Cars sales of 8,524 units (-11%MoM/-44%YoY), LCV/Pickup offtake of 1,316 units (-3%MoM/-39%YoY) and new Tractor purchases of 1,818 (-36%MoM/-52%YoY), marking a period of continued weakness in sectoral demand. Monthly sales declines in PC and LCV segments remained stark, where the segment-wise split stands at 3,430/1,555/3,539 for 1300CC+/1000CC/800CC & below segments, shifting +8%/-9%/-25%MoM and -59%/-57%/+9%YoY, while major OEMs underwent monthly sales moves of -16%/+6%/-6%MoM for PSMC/INDU/HCAR Cumu...

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Commodities: Mixed sentiments cut short commodity rally, (AKD Daily, Dec 10, 2019)

Moderating global economic indicators coupled with relatively stable services and consumption growth has kept central bank action at the forefront, while commodity prices have remained sanguine, signified by the TRJ index softening by a minor clip (down 0.13%MoM) Through a series of missives between China and the US regarding a “phase-one deal”, trade pathways are largely re-orienting away from these heavyweights, as the EU gains prominence and global trading bodies such as the WTO lose in the evolving global trading order Energy commodities continued their climb higher, with crude prices ri...

Pakistan Economy: Current Account gives a green light to Macro Consolidation

Latest SBP data on external account show marked improvement in the current account balance, with the country running a current account surplus of US$99mn in Oct’19 after 49months compared to CAD of US$284mn in the preceding month and US$1,280mn in Oct’18. Encouragingly, unlike the past few months where YoY deficit reduction was primarily import led, the Oct’19 improvement in current account balance was driven both by i) export growth (+10%YoY) and ii) import contraction (-21%YoY). While the current account balance improved sequentially (CA surplus of US$99mn in Oct’19 vs. CA deficit of US$...

Shahrukh Saleem

Pakistan OMCs: Much ado about margins,(AKD Daily, Nov 11, 2019)

After a delay of five months, Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) finally accorded approval to revision in OMC margins, setting them at PkR2.81/liter for MS and HSD for rest of FY20 (effective Dec’19) — increasing by 6.4%. Margin revision did not compensate OMCs for the delay where we had already incorporated margins of PkR2.77/liter for FY20 vs. now applicable weighted average margins of PkR2.74 resting lower than our estimates, pruning earnings of PSO/APL by 1.5/1% (avg. FY20-22). Though chances of passing the proposal for incorporation of exchange losses into the pricing mechanism remai...

Team AKD Research

AKD STOCK SMART, Nov 08, 2019

Index continued the momentum gained towards the end of last week and started the week on a strong footing, increasing by ~900 points in first trading session, supported by declining yields in the PIB auction held last week while additional stimulus was provided by easing tensions on the political front between government and opposition. Moreover, encouraging numbers clocked in for external account which provided further support. The enthusiasm based on aforesaid factors was carried for the whole week as index closed all 5 trading days of the week in green. KSE-100 closed the week at 35,978pts,...

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Strategy: Risk appetite, not fundamentals driving performance,

Confronting a slew of macro, peripheral and political shocks to continue its climb, the KSE-100 index has risen 4% during the last five trading sessions taking returns from Aug’16 (CYTD low) onward to 24% Isolating sectoral performance CYTD we highlight the role of side-stocks and sectoral plays in driving market performance, where further comparison to CYTD market low (Aug 16th) highlights the role played by off-board sectors (Refinery/Transport/Sugar were up 50/32/15%) favored by retail investors, where improved risk appetite played a greater role than improved fundamentals Conducive pol...

Pakistan Economy: Weak FX Buffer Stands in the Way of Easing

Pakistan’s national CPI inflation decelerated to 11.04%YoY in Oct’19 vs. 11.38%YoY in Sep’19, reflecting a high base effect. On a monthly basis, national CPI index jumped 1.8% vs. monthly rate of 0.77% in Sep’19, mainly driven by the housing and utility rates adjustment (housing & utility index: +3.65%MoM) and higher perishable food prices (+13.76%MoM). After a relatively soft Oct’19 reading, we project the headline national inflation to once again climb to 11.70%YoY in Nov’19 due to momentum effect and partial reversal of high base effect. Over the medium, it will remain elevated till Feb’20...

Ali Asghar Poonawala ...
  • Hamza Kamal

Pakistan Strategy: Trigger-hungry market awaits direction, (AKD Daily, Oct 01, 2019)

Reversing persistent pressures on equity benchmarks, Sept’19 ended on an upswing with the KSE-100/All index pulling back by +8.1/+6.5%MoM where impetus for returns originated from furthered expectations of monetary cycle peaking and corporate earnings announcement kept activity levels higher (KSE-100/All volumes avg, +3.9/0.4%MoM). Foreign portfolio investors remained net sellers, offloading US$3.5mn in positions during the month, with net buys centered on Fertilizers (US$2.7mn) and Oil & Gas exploration (US$0.5mn), moderated by domestic participants, with individual investor (US$6.1mn) and o...

Team AKD Research

AKD STOCK SMART,

Market remained lackluster during the week, influenced by lack of participation and no significant trigger, closing the week at 33,672pts, down 1.5%WoW. During the week, average daily turnover declined to 51mn shares, down 41% WoW while on Thursday, market witnessed second lowest volumes of 5 years (~40mn shares). Increase in fertilizer prices created some positive sentiment in the sector and brought it amongst the top performers while majority of other sectors remained dreary – in-line with the overall sentiment. Key news flows during the week included: 1) State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) receivi...

Team AKD Research

AKD STOCK SMART

Weekly Review                                 Managing to hold back gains made during the beginning of the week, the KSE-100 index closed at 34,190 pts rising 288pts ending the first week of FY20 up 0.9%WoW. Additionally, the drastic weakness in volumes (down 40.9%WoW to average 86.6mn shares) over the week was particularly indicative of investor apathy. With approval from the IMF executive board for the proposed US$~6bn EFF external financing support over the next three years (accompanied by release of US$1bn), investor sentiment see-sawed as regulatory action to curb un-registered transact...

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Strategy: FY19 closes with more questions than answers,

A mediocre June'19 brought FY20 to close on shaky ground (KSE-100/All indices slipped 19.1/18.3%YoY), showcasing the worst equity market performance in a decade, while volumes compressed and a flight to blue-chip KSE-100 mainboard plays gathered steam. 4QFY19 witnessed the KSE-100/All indices posting declines of 11.6/10.8%QoQ, their worst showing since 2QFY09 (-36/-34%QoQ for KSE-100/All) as growing uncertainty over the operational outlook for ancillary sectors furthered investor preference for mainboard stocks, as individual investor participation remained the only plus point in an otherwis...

Team AKD Research

AKD STOCK SMART

Weekly Review                                 Continuing with previous week’s trend, KSE-100 index lost another 3.5%WoW to close at 33,902pts. Apart from the regulatory tightening that has been the dominant factor hurting market performance for the past weeks, i) fiscal year-end phenomena (where historically market has remained under pressure), ii) exchange rate volatility (PkR/USD touched a high of 163.5 before closing at 159.5), and iii) revision in gas prices (up to 191%), impacted weekly performance. Concerns over tail risks have overshadowed the positives including the  US$3bn commitmen...

Ali Asghar Poonawala

Downstream Oil_Aug'17 sales are a pat on the back

POL products continued their uphill slope with total volumetric offtake of 2.49mn tons recorded in Aug'17, rising 8%MoM/10%YoY. The retail fuel segment continued to expand their prominence in overall volumes by forming the brunt of growth. FO sales were a relative dampener +6%MoM/-7%YoY, outdone by robust growth in retail fuel segments where HSD and MOGAS sales recorded +6%MoM/+25%YoY and +10%MoM/+25%YoY growth in volumes. 8MCY17 volumes point to a 3%YoY growth in total volumes, led by +14/+8/-7%YoY move in MOGAS/HSD/FO offtake. Cumulative volumes growth for the industry has begun to slow, rev...

Pakistan Market: Politics in a triggerless month, sparks sell-off

Recording the highest monthly decline for the year, the benchmark KSE100 Index lost 10.44% during the month of Aug'17. Once again politics took center stage with concerns of policy paralysis (post disqualification of Nawaz Sharif) influencing sentiments. Additionally, a mixed result season and discouraging development in Cements (price reduction) and Banks (possibly sizable fine on HBL which contributes >7% to the KSE100) were other key dampeners. That said, local investors (other than props) encouragingly absorbed (net positive flows) the entire quantum of foreign selling (US$80.46mn) in Aug'...

Team AKD Research

AKD STOCK SMART

Continuing with its volatility, KSE-100 stayed in the Red Zone during this week as well, with the index further losing 1,435pts or -3.36%WoW to close the current week at 41,207 (lowest level since Nov’16). Average daily traded volumes also came down significantly by 39.35%WoW to just 109mn shares with 1) TRG (39.22mn shares), 2) ANL (35.40mn shares), 3) SSGC (18.46mn shares), 4) BOP (14.16mn shares) and 5) ASL (13.19mn shares) leading the board. Key news flows during the week included: 1) through a regulatory filing, HBL notified that the bank has received a notice from the New York State Depa...

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Cement: Aug’17 dispatches showing robust growth

According to provisional statistics overall dispatches during Aug'17 registered growth of +17.6%MoM/10.9%YoY to reach a monthly peak of 3.98mn tons in Aug'17 (previous at 3.96mn tons in Mar'17). Domestic dispatches (3.53mn tons sold in Aug'17) growing +21.3%YoY/+16.5%MoM, continued to drive offtake. Growth in domestic dispatches in Aug’17 were likely led by sharp increase in PSDP spending (PkR79bn in Aug'17, up 2.3xYoY) and the dwindling of the seasonal slowdown (Ramadan & extended monsoon) seen in previous months. However, exports continued to slide by 5.5%MoM/19.3%YoY to reach just 0.450mn t...

Pakistan Fertilizers: Sector update Jul'17

Fertilizer offtake expectedly came down significantly in Jul'17 (down 32%YoY/48%MoM), post extraordinary sales of 1.43mn in the month of Jun'17 (up 106%YoY/100%MoM). According to latest figures released by NFDC, total fertilizer sales in Jul'17 stood at 746k tons against 1.10mn tons sold in Jul'16 (down 32%YoY/48%MoM). Similarly, urea sales also came down by 56%YoY/68%MoM to 339k tons during the month under review, after heavy urea procurement by dealers in Jun'17. Furthermore, imported urea sales declined by 5%YoY to 46k tons in Jul'17, despite availability at a significant discount to local ...

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