AKD Securities Limited

AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the leading securities firm in Pakistan, providing a comprehensive range of investor focused services, including equity brokerage, economic and securities research, investment banking and financial advisory services. AKD Securities accounts for more than 6% of the average daily value of the Karachi Stock Exchange. AKD Securities was the first brokerage house to launch an online trading platform in Pakistan in November 2002 and now has the largest market share with over 6000 customers. This has helped diversify and expand the retail investor base in the country and ushered in a whole new universe of investors to the stock market.

AKD Securities Ltd. caters to a diversified group of domestic and international institutional investors, high net worth individuals and upscale retail clients, including expatriate Pakistanis. With high quality research, unparalleled execution and distribution capability for both regular and large block trades, AKD Securities Ltd. has earned an outstanding reputation in the Pakistani securities industry.Outside of commercial banks, AKD Securities Ltd. is one of the biggest capital market firms in the country. AKD Securities is the leader in raising and providing risk capital in underwriting, market making and mergers and acquisitions in Pakistan. Good corporate governance and professionalism are emphasized throughout the firm and AKD Securities Ltd. is amongst the very few companies to have introduced a firm-wide comprehensive CODE of ETHICS, overseen by an independent compliance manager.Ultimately, our success is based on the quality of service we provide to our customers and the trust and confidence reposed in us by them. Our focus, therefore, remains on customer satisfaction at all levels in the company.

Coverage

Export
Ticker Underlying First Report Latest Report
00339 BMG2900P1538 CoreEconomy Investment Group Limited 2019/07/17 2019/07/17
024850 KR7024850000 PSMC Co Ltd 2018/07/24 2018/10/04
1108 TW0001108009 Lucky Cement Co. 2017/08/31 2019/07/19
A112MK PK0099701010 Engro Fertilizers 2017/10/20 2019/09/12
ABL PK0083501012 Allied Bank Ltd. 2019/05/08 2019/05/08
APL PK0082901015 Attock Petroleum 2017/10/06 2019/07/26
BAFL PK0078701015 Bank Alfalah 2017/09/20 2019/09/12
BAHL PK0051601018 Bank AL-Habib 2019/03/29 2019/04/24
BOP PK0045001010 The Bank of Punjab 2019/09/13 2019/09/13
CHCC PK0029801013 Cherat Cement Co. 2019/09/12 2019/09/12
DGKC PK0052401012 D.G. Khan Cement Co. 2017/09/01 2018/06/04
EFOODS PK0096501017 Engro Foods 2017/09/25 2018/05/16
ENGRO PK0012101017 Engro 2017/08/21 2017/08/21
FATIMA PK0091601010 Fatima Fertilizer Co. Ltd. 2017/10/30 2019/06/26
FCCL PK0074501013 Fauji Cement 2017/10/27 2019/10/10
FFBL PK0074601011 Fauji Fertilizer Bin Qasim Ltd. 2017/11/21 2019/09/26
FFC PK0053401011 Fauji Fertilizer Co. Ltd. 2017/09/22 2019/10/10
HBL PK0085101019 Habib Bank 2017/08/22 2019/10/11
HCAR PK0064901017 Honda Atlas Cars (Pakistan) Ltd. 2017/12/14 2018/03/13
HMB PK0055401019 Habib Metropolitan Bank 2019/04/05 2019/04/05
HUBC PK0065001015 Hub Power Co. Ltd. 2017/10/26 2019/10/04
INDU PK0054501017 Industrial Motor Co. 2017/09/11 2018/07/12
KAPCO PK0083101011 Kot Addu Power 2017/08/18 2019/07/18
KESC PK0000501012 K-Electric 2017/10/16 2018/07/06
LUCK PK0071501016 Lucky Cement Ltd. 2017/10/13 2019/09/19
MCB PK0055601014 MCB Bank 2017/11/16 2018/03/29
MEBL PK0077401013 Meezan Bank Ltd. 2019/07/11 2019/09/13
MLCF PK0066201010 Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd. 2017/10/03 2019/09/20
MLCFR PK0066203065 Maple Leaf Cement Factory Ltd 2018/03/02 2018/03/02
NBP PK0078001010 National Bank of Pakistan 2018/02/14 2018/02/14
NCL PK0048001017 Nishat Chunian 2017/09/15 2018/08/09
NCPL PK0098301010 Nishat Chunian Power Ltd. 2017/10/10 2017/10/10
NML PK0005501017 Nishat Mills Ltd. 2017/08/24 2019/09/23
OGDC PK0080201012 Oil & Gas Development 2017/08/23 2019/09/17
PAEL PK0034601010 Pak Elektron 2017/11/24 2019/09/13
PIOC PK0056201012 Pioneer Cement Ltd. 2017/09/19 2017/09/19
POL PK0023901017 Pakistan Oilfields Ltd. 2017/11/03 2019/01/22
PPL PK0081801018 Pakistan Petroleum Ltd. 2017/11/20 2018/07/23
PRL PK0004701014 Pak Refinery Ltd 2019/09/13 2019/09/13
PSMC PK0030501016 Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd. 2017/08/18 2019/10/14
PSO PK0022501016 Pakistan State Oil Co. 2017/08/09 2019/10/02
S44 SG1H26001476 EnGro Corp. Ltd. 2017/12/11 2019/01/25
SHEL PK0016701010 Shell Pakistan Ltd. 2018/06/05 2018/06/05
SSGC PK0002801014 Sui Southern Gas Co. Ltd. 2019/06/25 2019/06/25
TRG PK0079201015 TRG Pakistan 2017/11/30 2017/11/30
UBL PK0081901016 United Bank 2017/08/10 2018/03/15
UBLS US90953P2011 United Bank Ltd/Pakistan (GDR) 2018/02/14 2019/09/27
WTL PK0084301016 WorldCall Telecom 2017/12/29 2017/12/29

Analysts

  • Ali Asghar Poonawala

    Sr. Investment Analyst
  • Team AKD Research

    Investment Analyst
  • Umer Farooq

    Investment Analyst
  • Hamza Kamal

    Sr. Investment Analyst
  • Usman Zahid

    Director Research
  • Ailia Naeem

    Sr. Investment Analyst
  • Shahrukh Saleem

    N/A
Ali Asghar Poonawala

Pakistan Autos: Struggling through the slow and steady,(AKD Daily, Oct 14, 2019)

Monthly automobile industry sales data is out, with a total of 12,083 units being sold (+15%MoM/-40%YoY) of which 10,923 cars (+20%MoM/-36%YoY), 896 LCVs (-18%MoM/-64%YoY) and 228 Trucks (-5%MoM/-58%YoY), with an additional 3,761 tractors (+48%MoM/-35%YoY)  constituting total sales In the passenger car segment, total sales of 10,923, consist of 5,793, 800CC & below segment (+38%MoM/+64%YoY, with Alto sales catalyzing growth), 1,781 1,000CC segment (-8%MoM/-60%YoY) and 3,349 1300CC & above segment sales (+12%MoM/-63%YoY) respectively Cumulative 9MCY19 total industry sales of 157,216 units (-2...

Team AKD Research

Results Previews APL, HBL & UBL,(AKD Daily, Oct 11, 2019)

APL's EPS expected at PkR8.2 for 1QFY20: We expect Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) to post PAT of PkR816mn (EPS: PkR8.2) for 1QFY20, down 48/47% QoQ/YoY as volumes went down by 1/12% QoQ/YoY after overall economic slowdown imparted its effect on the company. Among the major fuels, HSD suffered the most with a 11/16% QoQ/YoY decline as influx of grey product exacerbated the effect of the slowing economy while company's market share for 1QFY20 decreased to 9.8% vs. 10.3/9.9% in 1QFY19/4QFY19. Another major reason for the decline will be expected inventory losses of PkR384mn for the quarter agains...

Result Previews EFERT & FFC,(AKD Daily, Oct 10, 2019)

The board members of Engro Fertilizer Ltd (EFERT) are scheduled to meet on 18th Oct’2019 to announce 3QCY19 results. We expect EFERT to post 3QCY19 NPAT of PkR4.5bn (EPS: PKR3.36), down 12% YoY, but up 41% QoQ. The YoY decline in earnings is attributable to (i) 11/35% YoY lower Urea/DAP offtakes, (ii) 54% YoY higher finance cost amid policy rate hikes over the last year and, (iii) higher effective tax rate of 39% (vs. 25% in the same period last year) due to expected reversal of deferred tax booked in 3QCY18. On a QoQ basis, the 41% increase in earnings will result from 907bps QoQ higher GMs l...

Shahrukh Saleem

FCCL_Cash flow buffers now vital, (AKD Daily, Oct 09, 2019)

We update our estimates for FCCL after incorporating FY19 detailed accounts, flagging relative tepidness of the company’s cash flows as being prone to weakness from the ongoing downturn resulting in a stretched working capital cycle for the company. Company’s market share has decreased to 8.0% in 4QFY19 from 10.1% in 1QFY19, where we expect sales-based market share to stabilize at 8% for FY20/21, taking cue from guidance provided in annual report and our correspondence. To attain a pre-expansion cycle capacity-based market share of ~9.2%, FCCL will need to expand capacity by 1.3mn tons whic...

Shahrukh Saleem

Pakistan OMC's_Retail throughput stumbles as OMCs retrench, (AKD Daily, Oct 08, 2019)

Weakness in volumes understandably flowed through to throughput levels, with 3QFY19 at 558k tons down 9%QoQ where the decline in HSD throughput was more severe owing to influx of grey product and standing at 234k tons, down 17%YoY, while MS provided some cushion, declining only 3%YoY Company-wise, HASCOL/SHEL/APL/PSO delivered throughput levels of 383k/606k/607k/528k ltrs/outlet, moving -14%/-4%/-8%/-3%QoQ and -65%/+5%/-17%/+8%YoY taking total average industry throughput -7%QoQ/-6%YoY to 531K lts/outlet, a sign of depleted volumes in the retail space and OMCs banking on expansive retail prese...

Team AKD Research

AKD STOCK SMART

Faltering under mounting macro risks and pressured by significant headline risks, the KSE-100 index continued its FYTD tumble, slipping 7.1%WoW to close at 29,429pts, dropping below the physcological 30K mark after a span of five years. Key news flows during the week included: 1) to avoid US$30mn penalty under Take or Pay mechanism and reduce the volume of demurrages, the GoP has minimized FO and coal based power generation to ensure maximum intake of RLNG, 2) FBR announced that it will not take any adverse action against traders on the condition of provision of CNIC numbers till September 30,...

Ali Asghar Poonawala ...
  • Hamza Kamal

Pakistan Strategy_ Perfect storm of risks clouds fundamentals

Week to date decline of 6.1% cover a period of depressed price performance for stocks, with volumes and returns closely resembling FY08-09, a period of record weakness in equity market performance, highlighting the multi-faceted nature of the prevailing market sell-off We segment news reports and policy actions during the year into macro and sectoral items, while underlining the broad pressures at play on both fronts forcing investors to hunker down, refrain from building fresh positions and induce outflows from institutional investors Guiding market sentiment, these developments have broadl...

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Commodities_July’19 Signals prolonged deceleration

  Global economic growth entered a late-cycle slowdown in the outgoing month, as US China trade tensions creeped into consumer and business confidence while global trade metrics (CPB World Trade monitor slowing from Oct’18 onwards) deteriorated at their fastest pace since the Global Financial Crisis. Signaling weakness in global economic outlook, the US Fed cut its policy rate, it’s first since 2008, signaling the precautionary commencement of a new round of global monetary easing (followed recently by India, Thailand and New Zealand), while steeper inversion in US bond markets illustrate...

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Commodities: Risk of slowdown aggravates global markets

Amidst the continued easing of global economic activity, looming threats of tariffs and most leading indicators of consumer/producer confidence softening, extending volatility to global commodity markets where the TRJ Commodity index moved +3.3%MoM but remaining lower by -9.6%YoY. The most direct impact of trade tensions yet was witnessed in slowing PMI numbers from China, India, Germany, while a downturn in consumer confidence readings from the US indicate significant spillovers from a potential trade tussle between the US and Chine, where on the flipside, ASEAN nations witnessed significant...

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Commodities: Global commodities witnessing mixed trends,

Global commodities printed a mixed trend where a host of factors including slow demand growth in China and tight supply conditions in oil market contributed to the cause. Resultantly, TRJ Commodities Index remained flat with a change of -0.7%. Energy commodities were led by rising crude prices (Arab Light/Brent was up 7.0/6.4% MoM) as US State Department decided against extension waiver on imports from Iran, while Richard's Bay coal prices dipped 12.95%MoM with weak imports from China proving to be a major dampener. Amongst soft commodities, the FAO food price index climbed 1.8%MoM gaining ...

Pakistan Economy: Drastic measures make for an unruly quarter

Headline inflation continues its upward trajectory, with the upcoming Jun'19 reading expected to touch a multi-year high of 9.65%YoY vs. 9.11%YoY in the preceding month and 5.21%YoY in Jun'18. Sequentially, the consumer price index is likely to go up by 1.06%MoM. Inflationary pressures are primarily stemming from i) rising food prices (food index: up 1.77%MoM), ii) higher retail fuel prices pushed by PkR weakness (transport index: up 1.86%MoM) and iii) general price hike in certain categories (i.e. tobacco & sugar) in anticipation of FY20 budget. With macro-adjustments (i.e. both in fiscal a...

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Strategy: Another round on the IMF rollercoaster

Sticking with the trend established in previous programs, the release highlighted some structural benchmarks, namely: 1) Budget FY20 aims to limit primary deficit to 0.6% of GDP, 2) support autonomy of SBP to continue stabilization measures, 3) improve tax collections, administration and modernization of public finance management framework, and 4) long term goals of continued stability measures enacted prior to this program, accompanied by moves to maintain institutional autonomy. Confirming the much-awaited staff-level agreement, the IMF in a press release issued yesterday laid out the ‘bare...

Ali Asghar Poonawala

OMCs_1QCY18 Retail Operations Update

Transportations sector demand continues to remain firmly in the driver seat for OMC volumes, as power sector demand takes the long spiral down (secular, gradual decline in FO sales, where we expect FY19-21F sales declining at CAGR of 21%). Throughput calculations suggest an uptrend in retail volumes moved, where the industry's average quarterly volume sales per outlet stood at 828.6K ltrs/outlet (+18%QoQ/+10%YoY). Daily average throughput per retail output clocked at 9,207ltrs/day where 10.3%YoY climb drives home the growth of supply chain and storage to buttress growing retail POL volumes. HA...

Pakistan Economy: Growth remains on track

Based on provisional PBS data for 8MFY18, the GoP expects GDP growth for FY18E to settle at 5.8%YoY crossing the 11 year high-watermark for growth vs 5.4%YoY (revised upwards) in FY17A. Key catalysts for growth remain ongoing implementation of early harvest infrastructure projects under the ambit of CPEC, net energy supply growth (net generated units up 11.3%YoY for 8MFY18), and sustained credit uptick (8MFY18 private sector credit stock grew 9.9% since Jun’17, adding PkR391.3bn offtake during the period increasing 8.3%YoY). Ancillary support factors including contained law and order situation...

Pakistan Economy: Rupee depreciation is a blessing in disguise

The Rupee depreciated another 4.4% against the greenback yesterday with interbank rate ending at PkR115.5/US$ reflecting existing pressures on the external front and central bank's reserves declining to US$12.13bn (down US$1.98bn CYTD; import cover: 2.69x). With regards to the external sector, as per latest data 8MFY18 CAD surged to its highest level ever at US$10.83bn (up 50.3%YoY) vs US$7.22bn in 8MFY17. While devaluation is likely to ease off pressures on external account in the long run (weaker rupee shall restore export competitiveness apart from impeding import growth), CAD at such high ...

Ali Asghar Poonawala

Pakistan Autos: Struggling through the slow and steady,(AKD Daily, Oct 14, 2019)

Monthly automobile industry sales data is out, with a total of 12,083 units being sold (+15%MoM/-40%YoY) of which 10,923 cars (+20%MoM/-36%YoY), 896 LCVs (-18%MoM/-64%YoY) and 228 Trucks (-5%MoM/-58%YoY), with an additional 3,761 tractors (+48%MoM/-35%YoY)  constituting total sales In the passenger car segment, total sales of 10,923, consist of 5,793, 800CC & below segment (+38%MoM/+64%YoY, with Alto sales catalyzing growth), 1,781 1,000CC segment (-8%MoM/-60%YoY) and 3,349 1300CC & above segment sales (+12%MoM/-63%YoY) respectively Cumulative 9MCY19 total industry sales of 157,216 units (-2...

Team AKD Research

Results Previews APL, HBL & UBL,(AKD Daily, Oct 11, 2019)

APL's EPS expected at PkR8.2 for 1QFY20: We expect Attock Petroleum Limited (APL) to post PAT of PkR816mn (EPS: PkR8.2) for 1QFY20, down 48/47% QoQ/YoY as volumes went down by 1/12% QoQ/YoY after overall economic slowdown imparted its effect on the company. Among the major fuels, HSD suffered the most with a 11/16% QoQ/YoY decline as influx of grey product exacerbated the effect of the slowing economy while company's market share for 1QFY20 decreased to 9.8% vs. 10.3/9.9% in 1QFY19/4QFY19. Another major reason for the decline will be expected inventory losses of PkR384mn for the quarter agains...

Result Previews EFERT & FFC,(AKD Daily, Oct 10, 2019)

The board members of Engro Fertilizer Ltd (EFERT) are scheduled to meet on 18th Oct’2019 to announce 3QCY19 results. We expect EFERT to post 3QCY19 NPAT of PkR4.5bn (EPS: PKR3.36), down 12% YoY, but up 41% QoQ. The YoY decline in earnings is attributable to (i) 11/35% YoY lower Urea/DAP offtakes, (ii) 54% YoY higher finance cost amid policy rate hikes over the last year and, (iii) higher effective tax rate of 39% (vs. 25% in the same period last year) due to expected reversal of deferred tax booked in 3QCY18. On a QoQ basis, the 41% increase in earnings will result from 907bps QoQ higher GMs l...

Shahrukh Saleem

FCCL_Cash flow buffers now vital, (AKD Daily, Oct 09, 2019)

We update our estimates for FCCL after incorporating FY19 detailed accounts, flagging relative tepidness of the company’s cash flows as being prone to weakness from the ongoing downturn resulting in a stretched working capital cycle for the company. Company’s market share has decreased to 8.0% in 4QFY19 from 10.1% in 1QFY19, where we expect sales-based market share to stabilize at 8% for FY20/21, taking cue from guidance provided in annual report and our correspondence. To attain a pre-expansion cycle capacity-based market share of ~9.2%, FCCL will need to expand capacity by 1.3mn tons whic...

Shahrukh Saleem

Pakistan OMC's_Retail throughput stumbles as OMCs retrench, (AKD Daily, Oct 08, 2019)

Weakness in volumes understandably flowed through to throughput levels, with 3QFY19 at 558k tons down 9%QoQ where the decline in HSD throughput was more severe owing to influx of grey product and standing at 234k tons, down 17%YoY, while MS provided some cushion, declining only 3%YoY Company-wise, HASCOL/SHEL/APL/PSO delivered throughput levels of 383k/606k/607k/528k ltrs/outlet, moving -14%/-4%/-8%/-3%QoQ and -65%/+5%/-17%/+8%YoY taking total average industry throughput -7%QoQ/-6%YoY to 531K lts/outlet, a sign of depleted volumes in the retail space and OMCs banking on expansive retail prese...

Pakistan Economy: Inflation - Sep’19 reading kills early easing prospects

Headline inflation for Sep’19 jumped to a multi-year high of 11.38%YoY vs. 10.50%YoY in the preceding month and 5.40%YoY in Sep’18. The acceleration was primarily driven by the Food group (+2.12%MoM), reflecting the rising prices both in perishable (+4.95%MoM) and non-perishable items (+1.58%MoM). The monthly inflation rate, however, dropped to 0.76%MoM vs. average monthly rate of 1.8%MoM in 2MFY20, as the country moves past the economic adjustment phase. The authorities’ decision to cut fuel prices for Sep’19 (-3.36%MoM on avg.) also played its part, partially offsetting the impact of risin...

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Strategy: Ambitious GoP to restart privatization machinery, (AKD Daily, Sep 16, 2019)

We look back at historic privatization transactions showcasing prominent stake sales from 1991 onwards highlighting the vast differences amongst private sales prevalent prior to 2010 and capital market transactions in favor since Citing an ambitious strategy to reduce fiscal imbalances, the GoP has embarked on a decisive strategy to offload public assets, in effect the clearest move yet to restart the privatization process after a hiatus of four years (NPCC transaction completed in Sept’15). While the current privatization transaction pipeline heavily favors unlisted private entities includi...

Ali Asghar Poonawala

Pakistan Autos: Sales are ‘up in smoke’, (AKD Daily, Sep 13, 2019)

Aug’19 total automotive industry sales stood at 10,503 units down 20%MoM/43%YoY pulled lower by 17%MoM/41%YoY dip in passenger car (PC) sales to 9,126 units, 33%MoM/53%YoY decline in LCV offtake and 41%MoM/61%YoY fall in Truck sales, concluding five months of consecutive sales decline for the industry where TTM cumulative industry sales depict levels last seen in 2015 Segment-wise sales during August show 1,300CC+ segment sales crumbling (down 17%MoM/63%YoY) in the absence of any major model upgrades (atypical for the segment) while relatively nascent offerings by PSMC in the mid (1,000CC sal...

Team AKD Research

AKD STOCK SMART, Sep 06, 2019

The market recovered 47% of its previous week correction, caused by poor results of HASCOL and potential privatization of index heavy weights E&Ps (PPL and OGDC). The KSE-100 closed the first trading session in green (up 1.3%), in anticipation of new methodology based inflation number for August 2019 to be lower than old methodology based inflation. While the market quickly lost steam in the following session, the Bulls came on the forefront mid-week, when PBS finally rolled out the new inflation methodology based on which headline inflation for Aug’19 stood at 10.5% YoY (11.6% based on older ...

Team AKD Research

AKD STOCK SMART, Aug 30, 2019

The market retraced 62% of its rally of the previous week, tumbling down by 5.35% (1,678 points) to 29,672 points during the outgoing week. The placement of Pakistan on ‘enhanced expedited follow up list’ by APG on Friday August 23rd, 2019 crushed investor sentiment, with market closing the first trading session in red. In addition to that, the reported potential divestment of PPL (10% of shares) and OGDC (7% of shares), index heavy weights, built further pressure on KSE-100. The GoP also introduced presidential ordinance to waive off 50% of outstanding GIDC overdues from the CNG, power, ferti...

Ali Asghar Poonawala ...
  • Hamza Kamal

Pakistan Strategy: Trigger-hungry market awaits direction, (AKD Daily, Oct 01, 2019)

Reversing persistent pressures on equity benchmarks, Sept’19 ended on an upswing with the KSE-100/All index pulling back by +8.1/+6.5%MoM where impetus for returns originated from furthered expectations of monetary cycle peaking and corporate earnings announcement kept activity levels higher (KSE-100/All volumes avg, +3.9/0.4%MoM). Foreign portfolio investors remained net sellers, offloading US$3.5mn in positions during the month, with net buys centered on Fertilizers (US$2.7mn) and Oil & Gas exploration (US$0.5mn), moderated by domestic participants, with individual investor (US$6.1mn) and o...

Team AKD Research

AKD STOCK SMART,

Market remained lackluster during the week, influenced by lack of participation and no significant trigger, closing the week at 33,672pts, down 1.5%WoW. During the week, average daily turnover declined to 51mn shares, down 41% WoW while on Thursday, market witnessed second lowest volumes of 5 years (~40mn shares). Increase in fertilizer prices created some positive sentiment in the sector and brought it amongst the top performers while majority of other sectors remained dreary – in-line with the overall sentiment. Key news flows during the week included: 1) State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) receivi...

Team AKD Research

AKD STOCK SMART

Weekly Review                                 Managing to hold back gains made during the beginning of the week, the KSE-100 index closed at 34,190 pts rising 288pts ending the first week of FY20 up 0.9%WoW. Additionally, the drastic weakness in volumes (down 40.9%WoW to average 86.6mn shares) over the week was particularly indicative of investor apathy. With approval from the IMF executive board for the proposed US$~6bn EFF external financing support over the next three years (accompanied by release of US$1bn), investor sentiment see-sawed as regulatory action to curb un-registered transact...

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Strategy: FY19 closes with more questions than answers,

A mediocre June'19 brought FY20 to close on shaky ground (KSE-100/All indices slipped 19.1/18.3%YoY), showcasing the worst equity market performance in a decade, while volumes compressed and a flight to blue-chip KSE-100 mainboard plays gathered steam. 4QFY19 witnessed the KSE-100/All indices posting declines of 11.6/10.8%QoQ, their worst showing since 2QFY09 (-36/-34%QoQ for KSE-100/All) as growing uncertainty over the operational outlook for ancillary sectors furthered investor preference for mainboard stocks, as individual investor participation remained the only plus point in an otherwis...

Team AKD Research

AKD STOCK SMART

Weekly Review                                 Continuing with previous week’s trend, KSE-100 index lost another 3.5%WoW to close at 33,902pts. Apart from the regulatory tightening that has been the dominant factor hurting market performance for the past weeks, i) fiscal year-end phenomena (where historically market has remained under pressure), ii) exchange rate volatility (PkR/USD touched a high of 163.5 before closing at 159.5), and iii) revision in gas prices (up to 191%), impacted weekly performance. Concerns over tail risks have overshadowed the positives including the  US$3bn commitmen...

Ali Asghar Poonawala

Downstream Oil_Aug'17 sales are a pat on the back

POL products continued their uphill slope with total volumetric offtake of 2.49mn tons recorded in Aug'17, rising 8%MoM/10%YoY. The retail fuel segment continued to expand their prominence in overall volumes by forming the brunt of growth. FO sales were a relative dampener +6%MoM/-7%YoY, outdone by robust growth in retail fuel segments where HSD and MOGAS sales recorded +6%MoM/+25%YoY and +10%MoM/+25%YoY growth in volumes. 8MCY17 volumes point to a 3%YoY growth in total volumes, led by +14/+8/-7%YoY move in MOGAS/HSD/FO offtake. Cumulative volumes growth for the industry has begun to slow, rev...

Pakistan Market: Politics in a triggerless month, sparks sell-off

Recording the highest monthly decline for the year, the benchmark KSE100 Index lost 10.44% during the month of Aug'17. Once again politics took center stage with concerns of policy paralysis (post disqualification of Nawaz Sharif) influencing sentiments. Additionally, a mixed result season and discouraging development in Cements (price reduction) and Banks (possibly sizable fine on HBL which contributes >7% to the KSE100) were other key dampeners. That said, local investors (other than props) encouragingly absorbed (net positive flows) the entire quantum of foreign selling (US$80.46mn) in Aug'...

Team AKD Research

AKD STOCK SMART

Continuing with its volatility, KSE-100 stayed in the Red Zone during this week as well, with the index further losing 1,435pts or -3.36%WoW to close the current week at 41,207 (lowest level since Nov’16). Average daily traded volumes also came down significantly by 39.35%WoW to just 109mn shares with 1) TRG (39.22mn shares), 2) ANL (35.40mn shares), 3) SSGC (18.46mn shares), 4) BOP (14.16mn shares) and 5) ASL (13.19mn shares) leading the board. Key news flows during the week included: 1) through a regulatory filing, HBL notified that the bank has received a notice from the New York State Depa...

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Cement: Aug’17 dispatches showing robust growth

According to provisional statistics overall dispatches during Aug'17 registered growth of +17.6%MoM/10.9%YoY to reach a monthly peak of 3.98mn tons in Aug'17 (previous at 3.96mn tons in Mar'17). Domestic dispatches (3.53mn tons sold in Aug'17) growing +21.3%YoY/+16.5%MoM, continued to drive offtake. Growth in domestic dispatches in Aug’17 were likely led by sharp increase in PSDP spending (PkR79bn in Aug'17, up 2.3xYoY) and the dwindling of the seasonal slowdown (Ramadan & extended monsoon) seen in previous months. However, exports continued to slide by 5.5%MoM/19.3%YoY to reach just 0.450mn t...

Pakistan Fertilizers: Sector update Jul'17

Fertilizer offtake expectedly came down significantly in Jul'17 (down 32%YoY/48%MoM), post extraordinary sales of 1.43mn in the month of Jun'17 (up 106%YoY/100%MoM). According to latest figures released by NFDC, total fertilizer sales in Jul'17 stood at 746k tons against 1.10mn tons sold in Jul'16 (down 32%YoY/48%MoM). Similarly, urea sales also came down by 56%YoY/68%MoM to 339k tons during the month under review, after heavy urea procurement by dealers in Jun'17. Furthermore, imported urea sales declined by 5%YoY to 46k tons in Jul'17, despite availability at a significant discount to local ...

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