4x Global Research

4X Global Research is a London-based consultancy providing institutional and corporate clients with focused, actionable, independent and connected research on Emerging and G20 fixed income and FX markets and economies.

4X Global Research has a strong forecasting track record, rooted in both a qualitative and quantitative analysis of data, trends, policy decisions and global events. Its conflict-free and unbundled research services aim to give investors a unique edge in their investment decisions. Its exclusive subscription-based reports and consultancy services form the basis of a long-term strategic partnership with its clients.

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Analysts

  • Olivier Desbarres

    N/A
Olivier Desbarres

FX markets – Beyond “risk-on”, “risk-off”

FX volatility remains subdued but this is not classical “risk-on” or “risk-off”. However, a number of patterns, beyond the Dollar’s obvious recovery, have recently stood out. Commodity currencies, with the exception of the Malaysian Ringgit, have weakened, despite the price of Brent crude oil broadly stable around $75/barrel. Non-Japan Asian currencies have either been stable (Indian Rupee, Singapore Dollar) or posted small gains, with the Philippines Peso up about 2%. This slow, broadly uniform appreciation suggests that central banks may be keeping their currencies on a short leash. Eur...

Olivier Desbarres

What’s driving EM and commodity currencies

Currency volatility remains subdued and European currencies, the Chinese Renminbi and even the Brazilian Real and South African Rand, have done little year-to-date. However, a number of developed and emerging market currencies have seen rapid appreciation or depreciation and a number of explanatory factors are likely, going forward, to keep influencing these currencies’ paths. These include the impact of commodity prices on  trade balances, capital account flows, trade-war concerns’ bearing on global risk appetite, central bank monetary policy, including FX management, expectations f...

Olivier Desbarres

Trading Places

 The rapid escalation in a potential trade war between the United States and China over the past month continues to dominate the headlines despite proposed protectionist measures having yet to take effect. US President Trump argues that the current trading set-up has led to the rapid rise in the United States’ trade deficit with China to a record high of $375bn in 2017 but whether this deficit is simply due to unfair Chinese trading practises is arguably open to debate. What is perhaps less ambiguous, in our view, is that such protectionist measures would likely weaken global trade, consumpt...

Olivier Desbarres

FX MARKETS' NERVES OF STEEL

Rising geopolitical tensions and stress in the US tech sector have strained equity markets. Conversely, FX volatility has eased below its long-term average and is now at the low end of its 12-month ranges with the exception of USD/CAD and AUD/USD.  The Dollar remains range-bound despite US-centric geopolitical tensions, White House turmoil and yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting. We somewhat disagree with the consensus view that FOMC members have stuck to their assumption of three policy hikes in 2018 but upped expectations for 2019 from two hikes to now three. The weighted average of FOMC m...

Olivier Desbarres

FX markets – Beyond “risk-on”, “risk-off”

FX volatility remains subdued but this is not classical “risk-on” or “risk-off”. However, a number of patterns, beyond the Dollar’s obvious recovery, have recently stood out. Commodity currencies, with the exception of the Malaysian Ringgit, have weakened, despite the price of Brent crude oil broadly stable around $75/barrel. Non-Japan Asian currencies have either been stable (Indian Rupee, Singapore Dollar) or posted small gains, with the Philippines Peso up about 2%. This slow, broadly uniform appreciation suggests that central banks may be keeping their currencies on a short leash. Eur...

Olivier Desbarres

FX MARKETS' NERVES OF STEEL

Rising geopolitical tensions and stress in the US tech sector have strained equity markets. Conversely, FX volatility has eased below its long-term average and is now at the low end of its 12-month ranges with the exception of USD/CAD and AUD/USD.  The Dollar remains range-bound despite US-centric geopolitical tensions, White House turmoil and yesterday’s Federal Reserve meeting. We somewhat disagree with the consensus view that FOMC members have stuck to their assumption of three policy hikes in 2018 but upped expectations for 2019 from two hikes to now three. The weighted average of FOMC m...

Olivier Desbarres

What’s driving EM and commodity currencies

Currency volatility remains subdued and European currencies, the Chinese Renminbi and even the Brazilian Real and South African Rand, have done little year-to-date. However, a number of developed and emerging market currencies have seen rapid appreciation or depreciation and a number of explanatory factors are likely, going forward, to keep influencing these currencies’ paths. These include the impact of commodity prices on  trade balances, capital account flows, trade-war concerns’ bearing on global risk appetite, central bank monetary policy, including FX management, expectations f...

Olivier Desbarres

Trading Places

 The rapid escalation in a potential trade war between the United States and China over the past month continues to dominate the headlines despite proposed protectionist measures having yet to take effect. US President Trump argues that the current trading set-up has led to the rapid rise in the United States’ trade deficit with China to a record high of $375bn in 2017 but whether this deficit is simply due to unfair Chinese trading practises is arguably open to debate. What is perhaps less ambiguous, in our view, is that such protectionist measures would likely weaken global trade, consumpt...

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