Topdanmark A/S

Topdanmark A/S is a Denmark-based insurance company engaged in the insurance and pension fund business. The Company's activities are divided into such segments, as Personal, and SME (Small and Medium Enterprises) and Industrial. The Personal segment sells policies for individual households in Denmark. The SME and Industrial segment offers policies for Denmark-based SME, agricultural and industrial businesses. The Company's private insurance offering includes such insurance products, as home, vehicle, accident, pet, child and life and health insurance, as well as pension funds. Its corporate insurance offering includes property insurance, insurance of goods and equipment, and car insurance, among others. As of December 31, 2012, it had subsidiaries responsible for life and non-life insurance, as well as for asset management, investment and property-related activities.
  • TickerTOP
  • ISINDK0060477503
  • ExchangeNasdaq Nordic Copenhagen
  • SectorNonlife Insurance
  • CountryDenmark

Analysts

Niclas Gehin

A sustainable business model

We believe the Nordic non-life insurers are set for yet another solid quarter in Q3, driven by benign weather. We have upgraded Sampo to BUY (HOLD) as we believe If… is currently trading at an excessive discount to its Nordic P&C peers (P/E 14x versus peers at 18-22x P/E). In this report we also look at the companies’ ESG profiles and conclude that the business models are set to benefit from higher premiums growth if the trend of an ageing population persists and more extreme weather becomes commonplace. We view the initiatives within claims prevention as the most material contribution to redu...

Despite a better risk assessment and improving to Neutral, TOPDANMARK A/S remains under pressure

TOPDANMARK A/S (DK), a company active in the Property & Casualty Insurance industry, improves its market behaviour and slightly increases its general evaluation. The independent financial analyst theScreener just upgraded the stock market behaviour as defensive. At a fundamental level, theScreener confirms 1 out of 4 possible stars; the general evaluation is slightly increased to Neutral but the title remains under pressure. As of the analysis date September 3, 2019, the closing price was DKK 334.60 and its target price was estimated at DKK 308.50.

Niclas Gehin

Topdanmark (Hold, TP: DKK380.00) - Solid underwriting in SME segment

The Q2 results were solid, with EPS of DKK4.5 slightly above consensus. However, the mix was on the positive side, as the combined ratio excluding run-off gains beat of ~2%-points was offset by the soft return on investment. We find Topdanmark’s valuation demanding, but have not identified any negative share price catalysts; we reiterate our HOLD. We have raised our 2020–2021e EPS by ~2% and our target price to DKK380 (370).

Niclas Gehin

A sustainable business model

We believe the Nordic non-life insurers are set for yet another solid quarter in Q3, driven by benign weather. We have upgraded Sampo to BUY (HOLD) as we believe If… is currently trading at an excessive discount to its Nordic P&C peers (P/E 14x versus peers at 18-22x P/E). In this report we also look at the companies’ ESG profiles and conclude that the business models are set to benefit from higher premiums growth if the trend of an ageing population persists and more extreme weather becomes commonplace. We view the initiatives within claims prevention as the most material contribution to redu...

Niclas Gehin

Topdanmark (Hold, TP: DKK380.00) - Solid underwriting in SME segment

The Q2 results were solid, with EPS of DKK4.5 slightly above consensus. However, the mix was on the positive side, as the combined ratio excluding run-off gains beat of ~2%-points was offset by the soft return on investment. We find Topdanmark’s valuation demanding, but have not identified any negative share price catalysts; we reiterate our HOLD. We have raised our 2020–2021e EPS by ~2% and our target price to DKK380 (370).

Niclas Gehin

Steady yielders at a premium

The Nordic P&C insurers have seen their share prices appreciate c29% YTD, of which 26%-points stem from multiples expansion. We believe this premium pricing is linked to their stable dividend streams, low dependency on economic cycles, and relative safe-haven classification. While we find current valuations demanding, we struggle to identify any potential negative catalysts. The Q2 results look set to be relatively solid due to benign weather in the Nordics. We reiterate our HOLDs and continue to favour Sampo (HOLD, TP EUR44) as If… is trading at a considerable discount on 2020e P/E at 19x ver...

Niclas Gehin

Topdanmark (Hold, TP: DKK350.00) - Strong start to the year

The Q1 report was solid, with a combined ratio adjusted for run-off gains 1% stronger than consensus. Reported EPS was c40% above consensus, boosted by high run-off gains and a strong result in Life and Pensions. The profit forecast model was updated from assuming a combined ratio of 89–70% to 86–87% excluding run-offs in Q2–Q4 2019. We have increased our 2020–2021e EPS by ~2% and our target price to DKK350 (330). We find the valuation demanding at a 2020e P/E of 21x, but struggle to identify any negative triggers and reiterate our HOLD.

Niclas Gehin

Solid names, demanding valuation

We expect the Nordic non-life insurers to report fairly solid Q1 results, with a positive impact from the relatively benign winter weather in most of the region. Coupled with strong investment returns, we see solid EPS only partly offset and complimented by various one-offs in the quarter. We maintain our target price on Sampo, but have downgraded to HOLD (BUY) following the appreciation since January. We maintain our HOLD recommendations on the other stocks we cover. The sector valuation continues to look demanding, but we struggle to identify any potential downside triggers. Sampo remains ou...

Two Directors sold after exercising options/sold 50,000 shares at 198.290DKK.

Two Directors at Topdanmark A S sold after exercising options/sold 50,000 shares at 198.290DKK. The significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under...

Christer Magnergård ...
  • Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Jon Berggren
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Martin Arnell
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Niclas Gehin
  • Nicolas McBeath
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Olof Larshammar
  • Patrik Ling
  • Stefan Gauffin
  • Tomi Railo

Weak report across the board

Eivind Sars Veddeng ...
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Jimi Lehtonen
  • Jon Berggren
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Niclas Gehin
  • Nicolas McBeath
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Olof Larshammar
  • Patrik Ling
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Simen Mortensen
  • Stefan Gauffin
  • Tomi Railo

Northern Lights

Håkon Astrup ...
  • Joachim Gunell
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Mattias Montgomery
  • Niclas Gehin
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Northern Lights

Alexander Aukner ...
  • Christer Magnergård
  • Eivind Sars Veddeng
  • Helge André Martinsen
  • Jon Masdal
  • Marius Knudssøn
  • Martin Hoang Nguyen
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Niclas Gehin
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Simen Mortensen

Northern Lights

Antti Kansanen ...
  • Joachim Gunell
  • Jon Masdal
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Martin Arnell
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Niclas Gehin
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Olof Larshammar
  • Stefan Gauffin

Ability to grow profitably uncertain

Despite a better risk assessment and improving to Neutral, TOPDANMARK A/S remains under pressure

TOPDANMARK A/S (DK), a company active in the Property & Casualty Insurance industry, improves its market behaviour and slightly increases its general evaluation. The independent financial analyst theScreener just upgraded the stock market behaviour as defensive. At a fundamental level, theScreener confirms 1 out of 4 possible stars; the general evaluation is slightly increased to Neutral but the title remains under pressure. As of the analysis date September 3, 2019, the closing price was DKK 334.60 and its target price was estimated at DKK 308.50.

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Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind each recommendation and reflect the fundamental and price data as of the last trading day of the week...

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