Swedish Match AB

Swedish Match develops, manufactures, markets, and sells snus and snuff, other tobacco products (cigars and chewing tobacco), and lights (matches and lighters). Snus and snuff are smokeless tobacco products that are produced and sold primarily in Sweden, Norway and the U.S. Other tobacco products represent cigars and chewing tobacco manufactured and sold on the U.S. market. Lights include manufacturing and distribution of matches and lighters. Other operations are primarily the distribution of tobacco products on the Swedish market. Primary brands include General snus, Longhorn moist snuff, White Owl cigars, Red Man chewing tobacco, Fiat Lux matches, and Cricket lighters.
  • TickerSWMA
  • ISINSE0000310336
  • ExchangeNasdaq Nordic Stockholm
  • SectorTobacco
  • CountrySweden

Analysts

Christer Magnergård ...
  • Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Jon Berggren
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Martin Arnell
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Niclas Gehin
  • Nicolas McBeath
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Olof Larshammar
  • Patrik Ling
  • Stefan Gauffin
  • Tomi Railo

Weak report across the board

Martin Arnell

Swedish Match (Buy, TP: SEK470.00) - Quality now at a discount

With our intact forecast and SEK470 target price, we have upgraded our recommendation to BUY (HOLD) post the recent share price drop. Looking past ZYN pipeline volumes (Q2 boost) and a softer US cigar market, we find SWMA in good shape for more profitable growth and healthy cash generation.

Martin Arnell

Swedish Match Minor model adjustments

We are fairly in line with consensus, forecasting Q2 EBIT from product segments of SEK1,391m, up 10% YOY, with the increase mainly owing to growing Snus & Snuff profit (results due 18 July at 08:15 CET). We have only fine-tuned our estimates mainly due to FX and maintain our SEK470 target price and HOLD recommendation.

1 director bought

A director at Swedish Match Ab bought 2,165 shares at 45.600USD and the significance rating of the trade was 58/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules. The names of bo...

SWEDISH MATCH AB sees an upgrade to Slightly Positive due to a better fundamental star rating

The general evaluation of SWEDISH MATCH AB (SE), a company active in the Tobacco industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 2 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date June 4, 2019, the closing price was SEK 415.00 and its potential was estimated at SEK 520.29.

Martin Arnell

Swedish Match (Buy, TP: SEK470.00) - Quality now at a discount

With our intact forecast and SEK470 target price, we have upgraded our recommendation to BUY (HOLD) post the recent share price drop. Looking past ZYN pipeline volumes (Q2 boost) and a softer US cigar market, we find SWMA in good shape for more profitable growth and healthy cash generation.

Martin Arnell

Swedish Match Minor model adjustments

We are fairly in line with consensus, forecasting Q2 EBIT from product segments of SEK1,391m, up 10% YOY, with the increase mainly owing to growing Snus & Snuff profit (results due 18 July at 08:15 CET). We have only fine-tuned our estimates mainly due to FX and maintain our SEK470 target price and HOLD recommendation.

Martin Arnell

Swedish Match (Hold, TP: SEK470.00) - Executing well on new prospects

We have raised our target price to SEK470 (455) but we reiterate our HOLD. The Q1 results were healthy (EBIT growth of c7% YOY in local currencies), the growth story for nicotine pouches outside Scandinavia (Scandi) is improving, and we have raised our 2020e EBIT by 3%. The market share drop in Scandinavian snus is more than offset by an appealing outlook for ZYN going national in the US, in our view.

Martin Arnell

Swedish Match Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates post the full-year 2018 results and the guidance of increasing capex YOY in 2019 (further scaling up of ZYN production capacity in the US). In total, we have raised our 2019–2020e EPS by 2–3%, partly to reflect a more positive outlook for nicotine pouches outside Scandinavia (primarily ZYN). Based on our new estimates, we have raised our target price to SEK455 (445). In the current market we believe that the rising risk in US cigars offsets the strong growth outlook for the international snus and nicotine pouch business. We have not changed our HOLD recommendation...

Martin Arnell

Swedish Match (Hold, TP: SEK445.00) - Decent earnings but regulation risks

We expect decent Q4 earnings (due at 08:15 CET on 13 February) with further margin improvement in the Snus and moist snuff segment supported by healthier earnings in the international snus business. Timing and actions by the FDA on a potential ban on flavoured cigars remains unclear. We have fine-tuned our estimates but reduced our target price to SEK445 (470) to better reflect the risk of the potential US flavoured cigar ban, as well as lower sector multiples as of late. We reiterate our HOLD.

1 director bought

A director at Swedish Match Ab bought 2,165 shares at 45.600USD and the significance rating of the trade was 58/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules. The names of bo...

Christer Magnergård ...
  • Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Jon Berggren
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Martin Arnell
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Niclas Gehin
  • Nicolas McBeath
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Olof Larshammar
  • Patrik Ling
  • Stefan Gauffin
  • Tomi Railo

Weak report across the board

Eivind Sars Veddeng ...
  • Jesper Ingildsen
  • Martin Arnell
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn

Northern Lights

Alexander Aukner ...
  • Marius Knudssøn
  • Martin Arnell
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Northern Lights

Christer Magnergård ...
  • Frank Maaø
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Jon Berggren
  • Jørgen Lian
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Martin Arnell
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Patrik Ling
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Simen Mortensen

Northern Lights

Christer Magnergård ...
  • Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
  • Helge André Martinsen
  • Jon Masdal
  • Martin Arnell
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Mattias Montgomery
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Olof Larshammar
  • Simen Mortensen
  • Stefan Gauffin

Northern Lights

SWEDISH MATCH AB sees an upgrade to Slightly Positive due to a better fundamental star rating

The general evaluation of SWEDISH MATCH AB (SE), a company active in the Tobacco industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 2 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date June 4, 2019, the closing price was SEK 415.00 and its potential was estimated at SEK 520.29.

Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report

Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind each recommendation and reflect the fundamental and price data as of the last trading day of the week...

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Expert Corporate Governance Service (ECGS)

Swedish Match April 09th, 2019

In general, Swedish Match is in compliance with the Swedish regulations relating to the organisation and procedures of the AGM. Under ITEM 11, the nomination committee proposes to increase the remuneration of the board of directors by almost 9%. In ECGS' view the current fees are already at the upper level of Swedish market practice for a company with the size and complexity of Swedish Match and it therefore does not approve of any increases without adequate justification. Since the proposal is not adequately justified, ECGS recommends to vote OPPOSE. Under ITEM 16, the board of directors se...

Swedish Match – Proxinvest Corporate Governance Rating ® : C

Proxinvest Corporate Governance Rating ® helps investors integrate governance into their investment decision and identify governance risks and opportunities within their portfolio. Proxinvest Corporate Governance Rating ® Service rates European issuers through the analysis of four main themes : Ownership & Shareholder rights, Board & Committees, Audit & Process, Remuneration. Each theme is rated taking into account several comprehensive sub-categories. Our unique two-step process to achieve each rating includes a first step quantitative valuation and a second step qualitative filter...

Expert Corporate Governance Service (ECGS)

Proxy Report - 11/04/2018

In general, Swedish Match is in compliance with the Swedish regulations relating to the organisation and procedures of the AGM. Under ITEM 11, the nomination committee proposes to increase the remuneration of the board of directors by somewhere between 3.0% and 4.0%. In ECGS' view the current fees are already at the upper level of Swedish market practice for a company with the size and complexity of Swedish Match and it therefore does not approve of any increases without adequate justification. Since the proposal is not adequately justified, ECGS recommends to vote OPPOSE. Under ITEM 14, the...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • John Betz

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts. What is likely the least-used timeframe, monthly charts (> 20 years) offer the most clarity. And what's clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE's 20-year chart (below) reveals ...

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