Swedish Match AB

Swedish Match develops, manufactures, markets, and sells snus and snuff, other tobacco products (cigars and chewing tobacco), and lights (matches and lighters). Snus and snuff are smokeless tobacco products that are produced and sold primarily in Sweden, Norway and the U.S. Other tobacco products represent cigars and chewing tobacco manufactured and sold on the U.S. market. Lights include manufacturing and distribution of matches and lighters. Other operations are primarily the distribution of tobacco products on the Swedish market. Primary brands include General snus, Longhorn moist snuff, White Owl cigars, Red Man chewing tobacco, Fiat Lux matches, and Cricket lighters.
  • TickerSWMA
  • ISINSE0000310336
  • ExchangeNasdaq Nordic Stockholm
  • SectorTobacco
  • CountrySweden

Analysts

SWEDISH MATCH AB is downgraded to Slightly Positive due to increased risk

The independent financial analyst theScreener just slightly lowered the general evaluation of SWEDISH MATCH AB (SE), active in the Tobacco industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title confirms its rating of 4 out of 4 stars. Its market behaviour, however, has slightly deteriorated and can be now qualified as moderately risky. This risk increase, even if marginal, forces theScreener to slightly downgrade the title, which now displays an overall rating of Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date March 1, 2019, the closing price was SEK 441.00 and its potential was estimated at SEK...

Swedish Match – Proxinvest Corporate Governance Rating ® : C

Proxinvest Corporate Governance Rating ® helps investors integrate governance into their investment decision and identify governance risks and opportunities within their portfolio. Proxinvest Corporate Governance Rating ® Service rates European issuers through the analysis of four main themes : Ownership & Shareholder rights, Board & Committees, Audit & Process, Remuneration. Each theme is rated taking into account several comprehensive sub-categories. Our unique two-step process to achieve each rating includes a first step quantitative valuation and a second step qualitative filter...

Martin Arnell

Swedish Match Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates post the full-year 2018 results and the guidance of increasing capex YOY in 2019 (further scaling up of ZYN production capacity in the US). In total, we have raised our 2019–2020e EPS by 2–3%, partly to reflect a more positive outlook for nicotine pouches outside Scandinavia (primarily ZYN). Based on our new estimates, we have raised our target price to SEK455 (445). In the current market we believe that the rising risk in US cigars offsets the strong growth outlook for the international snus and nicotine pouch business. We have not changed our HOLD recommendation...

Alexander Aukner ...
  • Marius Knudssøn
  • Martin Arnell
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Northern Lights

Martin Arnell

Swedish Match (Hold, TP: SEK445.00) - Decent earnings but regulation risks

We expect decent Q4 earnings (due at 08:15 CET on 13 February) with further margin improvement in the Snus and moist snuff segment supported by healthier earnings in the international snus business. Timing and actions by the FDA on a potential ban on flavoured cigars remains unclear. We have fine-tuned our estimates but reduced our target price to SEK445 (470) to better reflect the risk of the potential US flavoured cigar ban, as well as lower sector multiples as of late. We reiterate our HOLD.

Martin Arnell

Swedish Match Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates post the full-year 2018 results and the guidance of increasing capex YOY in 2019 (further scaling up of ZYN production capacity in the US). In total, we have raised our 2019–2020e EPS by 2–3%, partly to reflect a more positive outlook for nicotine pouches outside Scandinavia (primarily ZYN). Based on our new estimates, we have raised our target price to SEK455 (445). In the current market we believe that the rising risk in US cigars offsets the strong growth outlook for the international snus and nicotine pouch business. We have not changed our HOLD recommendation...

Martin Arnell

Swedish Match (Hold, TP: SEK445.00) - Decent earnings but regulation risks

We expect decent Q4 earnings (due at 08:15 CET on 13 February) with further margin improvement in the Snus and moist snuff segment supported by healthier earnings in the international snus business. Timing and actions by the FDA on a potential ban on flavoured cigars remains unclear. We have fine-tuned our estimates but reduced our target price to SEK445 (470) to better reflect the risk of the potential US flavoured cigar ban, as well as lower sector multiples as of late. We reiterate our HOLD.

Martin Arnell

Swedish Match (Hold, TP: SEK470.00) - Struggling to meet US demand

Profit from Snus and moist snuff surprised positively in Q3 (albeit a volume boost from favourable weather in Scandinavia) and triggered a slight increase to our 2018–2019e adj. EBIT. The ZYN story is on track, although near-term growth could be hampered by capacity constraints. The cash story is intact and with our forecast of c5% total annual shareholder returns, we reiterate our HOLD and SEK470 target price.

Martin Arnell

Swedish Match (Hold, TP: SEK470.00) - Preparing for local US production

We expect another solid quarter from Swedish Match (Q3 results due at 08:15 CET on 26 October), with EBIT from product areas rising 14% YOY. We see US production from next year helping the group better cater to rising demand for its nicotine pouches (ZYN). However, we find most of the positives priced into the stock, and keep our HOLD recommendation and SEK470 target price.

Martin Arnell

Swedish Match (Hold, TP: SEK470.00) - Something for the brave

After a solid Q2 with adj. EBIT increasing 16% YOY, we have turned more positive to SNS and OTP growth prospects. Price hikes are working nicely for the moment and the growth case is fuelled by snus and nicotine pouches outside Scandinavia. We have raised our 2018e–2020e adj. EBIT by 3–4% and our target price to SEK470 (420) but keep our HOLD.

1 director sold

A director at Swedish Match Ab sold 400 shares at 489.450SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 51/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules. The names of board...

Alexander Aukner ...
  • Marius Knudssøn
  • Martin Arnell
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Rune Majlund Dahl

Northern Lights

Christer Magnergård ...
  • Frank Maaø
  • Håkon Astrup
  • Jon Berggren
  • Jørgen Lian
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Martin Arnell
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Patrik Ling
  • Rune Majlund Dahl
  • Simen Mortensen

Northern Lights

Christer Magnergård ...
  • Christoffer Wang Bjørnsen
  • Helge André Martinsen
  • Jon Masdal
  • Martin Arnell
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Mattias Montgomery
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Olof Larshammar
  • Simen Mortensen
  • Stefan Gauffin

Northern Lights

Antti Kansanen ...
  • Joachim Gunell
  • Jon Masdal
  • Karl-Johan Bonnevier
  • Martin Arnell
  • Martin Huseby Karlsen
  • Mattias Holmberg
  • Niclas Gehin
  • Ole Martin Westgaard
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn
  • Olof Larshammar
  • Stefan Gauffin

Ability to grow profitably uncertain

Eivind Sars Veddeng ...
  • Martin Arnell
  • Mattias Montgomery
  • Ole-Andreas Krohn

Northern Lights

SWEDISH MATCH AB is downgraded to Slightly Positive due to increased risk

The independent financial analyst theScreener just slightly lowered the general evaluation of SWEDISH MATCH AB (SE), active in the Tobacco industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title confirms its rating of 4 out of 4 stars. Its market behaviour, however, has slightly deteriorated and can be now qualified as moderately risky. This risk increase, even if marginal, forces theScreener to slightly downgrade the title, which now displays an overall rating of Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date March 1, 2019, the closing price was SEK 441.00 and its potential was estimated at SEK...

Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report

Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind each recommendation and reflect the fundamental and price data as of the last trading day of the week...

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Swedish Match – Proxinvest Corporate Governance Rating ® : C

Proxinvest Corporate Governance Rating ® helps investors integrate governance into their investment decision and identify governance risks and opportunities within their portfolio. Proxinvest Corporate Governance Rating ® Service rates European issuers through the analysis of four main themes : Ownership & Shareholder rights, Board & Committees, Audit & Process, Remuneration. Each theme is rated taking into account several comprehensive sub-categories. Our unique two-step process to achieve each rating includes a first step quantitative valuation and a second step qualitative filter...

Expert Corporate Governance Service (ECGS)

Proxy Report - 11/04/2018

In general, Swedish Match is in compliance with the Swedish regulations relating to the organisation and procedures of the AGM. Under ITEM 11, the nomination committee proposes to increase the remuneration of the board of directors by somewhere between 3.0% and 4.0%. In ECGS' view the current fees are already at the upper level of Swedish market practice for a company with the size and complexity of Swedish Match and it therefore does not approve of any increases without adequate justification. Since the proposal is not adequately justified, ECGS recommends to vote OPPOSE. Under ITEM 14, the...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • John Betz

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Big-picture technicals offer a compelling outlook for equities -- in the long-run. Despite arguably stretched trends, especially in the U.S. and EM, one indicator in particular keeps us optimistic: monthly charts. What is likely the least-used timeframe, monthly charts (> 20 years) offer the most clarity. And what's clear right now is: (1) Europe is on the doorstep of breaking above secular resistance; (2) Japan is breaking out above secular resistance; (3) and EM already has. Speaking of EM, we view this as the place to be, or overweight, in 2018. The EM/EAFE's 20-year chart (below) reveals ...

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