Pak Suzuki Motor Co. Ltd.

Pak Suzuki Motor is engaged in assembling, progressive manufacturing and marketing of Suzuki cars, pickups, vans, and 4X4 vehicles. Co.'s product models include Baleno, Margalla, Mehran, Kyber, Ravi Pickup, Bolan Van and Potohar Jeep.
  • TickerPSMC
  • ISINPK0030501016
  • ExchangePakistan Stock Exchange
  • SectorAutomobiles & Parts
  • CountryPakistan

Analysts

Ali Asghar Poonawala

Pakistan Autos: Weak profitability cracks cash flows, (AKD Daily, Sep 20, 2019)

Updating our expectations upon release of detailed financial accounts for auto OEMs reveals a persistent upswing in industry CAPEX with the last TTM total outlay reaching PkR14.6bn with PSMC/INDU/HCAR contributing 34/60/7%, The industry’s TTM topline/gross profit growth swayed +5.2/-31.1%YoY showcasing the strains on core profitability, where players dealt with pervasive FX fluctuations passed-on to retail prices in an environment of macro-consolidation (monetary tightening, inflationary pressures, lower disposable incomes) with punitive policies discouraging sales growth In terms of free-c...

Ali Asghar Poonawala

Pakistan Autos: Sales are ‘up in smoke’, (AKD Daily, Sep 13, 2019)

Aug’19 total automotive industry sales stood at 10,503 units down 20%MoM/43%YoY pulled lower by 17%MoM/41%YoY dip in passenger car (PC) sales to 9,126 units, 33%MoM/53%YoY decline in LCV offtake and 41%MoM/61%YoY fall in Truck sales, concluding five months of consecutive sales decline for the industry where TTM cumulative industry sales depict levels last seen in 2015 Segment-wise sales during August show 1,300CC+ segment sales crumbling (down 17%MoM/63%YoY) in the absence of any major model upgrades (atypical for the segment) while relatively nascent offerings by PSMC in the mid (1,000CC sal...

Ali Asghar Poonawala

Pakistan Autos: Consumers put the brakes on demand, (AKD Daily, Aug 20, 2019)

July’19 total automotive industry sales of 13,119 units (-19%MoM/-41%YoY) amounts to the weakest monthly sales figure since Dec’14, leading 7MCY19 total industry offtake to close at 134,630 units (-17%YoY), where major constituents moved -15%/-23%/-46% for Passenger Cars/LCV & Pick-ups/Trucks for the cumulative period Sector wide declines can be seen crossing the double digits, where July’19 sales for every segment fell between 42%YoY (for PC segment) and 30%YoY (for Trucks), depicting a strenuous demand picture, hindered by rising price tags and inflationary pressures burdening demand while...

Ali Asghar Poonawala

Pakistan Autos_Gravity of a weak economy catches up with auto sales, (AKD Daily Jul 12, 2019)

June'19 total automotive industry sales tapered to 16,288 units (-11%MoM/-15%YoY) closing FY19 with total industry sales of 245,724 (-9%YoY). Major constituents of total industry sales for FY19 moved -5%/-37%/-29%YoY for Passenger Cars/Trucks/Tractors while LCVs & Pickups sales slipped (-21%YoY) mostly from rapidly rising prices, adverse regulatory measures enforces by the GoP, amidst falling disposable incomes (hindered by petrol prices, cost of borrowing) effectively deflating consumer durable demand. Segment-wise sales composition in the passenger car segment confirm the trend of relati...

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Autos: Dampeners could moderate new model growth effect for PSMC

Pak Suzuki announced the release of the Alto's variants (2 manual, 1 auto) and price points (PkR1.0-1.3mn inclusive of FED), and final delivery dates yet to be confirmed, channel checks suggest commencement of deliveries from end June at the latest, allowing us to firm-up our fundamental expectations. We expect Alto sales for CY19 to rest at ~22k vehicles, averaging monthly sales of ~3,650 vehicles, while for CY20/21, sales growth of 10/5% are expected (average of ~45k vehicles) while prices introduced are ~17% higher than the weighted average sale price of the Mehran, implying continuous co...

Ali Asghar Poonawala

Pakistan Autos: Weak profitability cracks cash flows, (AKD Daily, Sep 20, 2019)

Updating our expectations upon release of detailed financial accounts for auto OEMs reveals a persistent upswing in industry CAPEX with the last TTM total outlay reaching PkR14.6bn with PSMC/INDU/HCAR contributing 34/60/7%, The industry’s TTM topline/gross profit growth swayed +5.2/-31.1%YoY showcasing the strains on core profitability, where players dealt with pervasive FX fluctuations passed-on to retail prices in an environment of macro-consolidation (monetary tightening, inflationary pressures, lower disposable incomes) with punitive policies discouraging sales growth In terms of free-c...

Ali Asghar Poonawala

Pakistan Autos: Consumers put the brakes on demand, (AKD Daily, Aug 20, 2019)

July’19 total automotive industry sales of 13,119 units (-19%MoM/-41%YoY) amounts to the weakest monthly sales figure since Dec’14, leading 7MCY19 total industry offtake to close at 134,630 units (-17%YoY), where major constituents moved -15%/-23%/-46% for Passenger Cars/LCV & Pick-ups/Trucks for the cumulative period Sector wide declines can be seen crossing the double digits, where July’19 sales for every segment fell between 42%YoY (for PC segment) and 30%YoY (for Trucks), depicting a strenuous demand picture, hindered by rising price tags and inflationary pressures burdening demand while...

Ali Asghar Poonawala

Pakistan Autos_Gravity of a weak economy catches up with auto sales, (AKD Daily Jul 12, 2019)

June'19 total automotive industry sales tapered to 16,288 units (-11%MoM/-15%YoY) closing FY19 with total industry sales of 245,724 (-9%YoY). Major constituents of total industry sales for FY19 moved -5%/-37%/-29%YoY for Passenger Cars/Trucks/Tractors while LCVs & Pickups sales slipped (-21%YoY) mostly from rapidly rising prices, adverse regulatory measures enforces by the GoP, amidst falling disposable incomes (hindered by petrol prices, cost of borrowing) effectively deflating consumer durable demand. Segment-wise sales composition in the passenger car segment confirm the trend of relati...

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Autos: Dampeners could moderate new model growth effect for PSMC

Pak Suzuki announced the release of the Alto's variants (2 manual, 1 auto) and price points (PkR1.0-1.3mn inclusive of FED), and final delivery dates yet to be confirmed, channel checks suggest commencement of deliveries from end June at the latest, allowing us to firm-up our fundamental expectations. We expect Alto sales for CY19 to rest at ~22k vehicles, averaging monthly sales of ~3,650 vehicles, while for CY20/21, sales growth of 10/5% are expected (average of ~45k vehicles) while prices introduced are ~17% higher than the weighted average sale price of the Mehran, implying continuous co...

Ali Asghar Poonawala

Pakistan Autos: Slow down extends to PC Segment

May'19 total automotive industry sales of 28,342 units (-8%MoM/-19%YoY) limiting 11MFY19 total industry offtake to 229,436 units (-8%YoY). Major constituents of total industry sales moved -15%/-31%/-54%YoY for Passenger Cars/LCV & Pick-ups/Trucks for the month, with 12M running total Car sales slowed to 192.8K units, levels last seen during March'18, indicating an early stage down cycle. Cumulative 11MFY19 total industry sales dip was a factor of LCV & Pickups/Trucks/Passenger car segments weakening -23%/-36%/-8%YoY. In the passenger car (PC) segment, 11MFY19 numbers 1000CC/1300cc plus segme...

Ali Asghar Poonawala

Pakistan Autos: Sales are ‘up in smoke’, (AKD Daily, Sep 13, 2019)

Aug’19 total automotive industry sales stood at 10,503 units down 20%MoM/43%YoY pulled lower by 17%MoM/41%YoY dip in passenger car (PC) sales to 9,126 units, 33%MoM/53%YoY decline in LCV offtake and 41%MoM/61%YoY fall in Truck sales, concluding five months of consecutive sales decline for the industry where TTM cumulative industry sales depict levels last seen in 2015 Segment-wise sales during August show 1,300CC+ segment sales crumbling (down 17%MoM/63%YoY) in the absence of any major model upgrades (atypical for the segment) while relatively nascent offerings by PSMC in the mid (1,000CC sal...

Team AKD Research

Pakistan Auto: Slimmer sales jump this January

Following a trimmed 4QCY18, a lean start to CY19 is seen with Jan’19 total industry sales of 23,140 units (+16%MoM/-6%YoY) consisting of 19,353 passenger cars (+20%MoM/-3%YoY), 3,185 LCVs & Pickups (-4%MoM/-12%YoY) and 537 Trucks (+78%MoM/-39%YoY), marking the slowest MoM move since Jan’07 For the passenger car segment, premium segment sales hunkered-on where 1300+ segment sales of 9,750 units (+49%MoM/+13%YoY) allowed premium players INDU/HCAR to record sales growth of +17%/+91%MoM and +16%/+3%YoY, whereas 800CC and below segment sales receded (4,318 units down 12%MoM/34%YoY), suppressing PS...

Pakistan Autos_ups & downs are what cycles are made of

Tepid August'18 PAMA sales data (total industry sales of 18,384units -17%MoM/-20%YoY illustrates sector dampeners (input pressures and price hikes, lack of new models) catching up to restrict demand, with the non-filer sales ban being the straw that breaks the camel's back. Seasonality played-out during the month (Eid effect, end of Kharif season), where cumulative 8MCY18 total industry sales of 180,300 units (+10%YoY) remains a better barometer for judging industry health (seasonal variations evened out by longer periods). Cumulative sales were up +13/+12/+5%YoY for PSMC/HCAR/INDU during 8M...

Ali Asghar Poonawala

Pakistan Autos: PAPS 2019 reflects a 'not-so-green light' for entrants

PAPAM's Pakistan Auto Show 2019, held in Karachi over the weekend was filled with exhibitors from the auto industry cluster, parts manufacturers, allied equipment, service providers and OEMs.  Refining our outlook for the competitive environment and forming a birds-eye-view of the sector we highlight the prevalence of Chinese origin brands, favouring shorter timespan brownfield entry over greenfield investments, and competitive pricing with enhanced features of PC segment offerings (both current and expected) as catalysts for organic growth  That said, amongst Greenfield entrants, KIA put up...

Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report

Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind each recommendation and reflect the fundamental and price data as of the last trading day of the week...

Farheen Irfan

Automobile Assemblers - Passenger Cars Post 17%YoY Growth in FY18

Passenger cars have shown a robust growth of 17%YoY during FY18 on the back of rising income level, cheap car-financing, election year demand and blossoming ride-hailing segment. However, Passenger cars sales fell by 14%MoM during Jun-18 due to Ramadan effect and Eid holidays. Amongst the assemblers, HCAR showed strongest growth during the year (up 31%YoY) led by BR-V sales (302%YoY) due to low base year. PSMC registered growth of 26%YoY mainly due to sharp growth in WagonR/Mehran (65%YoY/22%YoY). While INDU posted a moderate growth of 5%YoY since focus shifted from passenger cars to SUVs (Fo...

South Asia Consumers & Conglomerates: Pakistan Autos and JKH are our top picks

Across more than 50 slides, we assess the opportunities in South Asia Consumers and Conglomerates, combining: (1) Country-specific demographic and urban characteristics. (2) Company and industry-specific dynamics. We break this second set down further into: (i) valuation relative to peers and history. (ii) track record on execution and strategy. (iii) competitive intensity and barriers to entry. (iv) long- and short-term risks and catalysts.

PAKISTAN AUTOS: We cut forecasts, but remain positive; INDU top pick

Lower margin outlook for HCAR and PSMC, INDU remains top pick. We cut our target prices for HCAR and PSMC by 18% to reflect a more cautious gross margin outlook and earlier market share loss assumptions to new entrants. HCAR’s gross margins are down 290bp yoy between April – December after the Pakistan Rupee depreciated versus the Thai Bhat and their sales mix has changed with more (lower margin due to less localisation of components) BR-V units sold. PSMC’s gross margins were flat yoy in 2017 but there is no update on the proposed new plant which should provide higher margin new models. We al...

Team AKD Research

AKD STOCK SMART

Weekly Review The ongoing political instability further fueled by announcement of tough US Pak-Afghan policy continued to cloud the investors’ sentiment, leading to the benchmark KSE-100 index falling 1.01%WoW, to close the week at 42,642pts. Continuing with risk-off approach, investors stayed away at bay where average daily turnover fell 2.06%WoW to 179.73mn shares with volume leaders comprising: 1) TRG (74.85mn shares), 2) ANL (74.76mn shares), 3) KEL (43.21mn shares), 4) BOP (41.81mn shares) and 5) ASL (41.69mn shares). Major news flows impacting the market included: 1) NAB filing applicat...

Team AKD Research

AKD STOCK SMART

With rising political uncertainty (PAT’s protest against Punjab government, summoning of former PM and his sons to NAB), the benchmark KSE-100 index fell 4.8%WoW, ending the 4-day trading session at 43,078pts. In tandem, average daily turnover also declined 3.38%WoW to 183.5mn shares, with volume leaders comprising: 1) ANL (57.15mn shares), 2) ASL (41.21mn shares), 3) TRG (39.18mn shares), 4) BOP (38.77mn shares) and 5) KEL (32.47mn shares).  Apart from aforementioned developments, key news flows impacting the market included: 1) Nawaz Sharif’s counsel filing review petition against Panama lea...

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