OPAP is engaged in the operating and management of numerical lottery and sports betting games as well as lottery games. Co. holds concession to operate and manage new sports betting games in Greece as well as a right of first refusal to operate and manage any new lottery games permitted by the Hellenic Republic. Co. operates six numerical lottery games, including Joker, Lotto, Proto, Extra 5, Super 3, and Kino; and three sports betting games consisting of Stihima, Propo, and Propo-goal. Co. is also engaged in designing new lottery games, including Bingo and Super 4. Co. distributes its games through an extensive on-line network of agents.
  • TickerOPAP
  • ISINGRS419003009
  • SectorTravel & Leisure
  • CountryGreece

Analysts

Research Team

Focus: transferring coverage of OPAP with a BUY and a new EUR 12.2 PT; keeping our BUY on Mytilineos, with lower EUR 12.5 PT; Polish retail sector – retail tax saga – season 2; National Bank – feedback from investor day

HEADLINES: • OPAP: the odds are good (BUY - transfer of coverage) • Mytilineos: plant(ing) the seed (stays BUY) • Polish retail sector: retail tax saga - season 2 • National Bank: feedback from investor day • Rostelecom: recommends RUB 2.5 DPS from 2018 NI NEUTRAL • Petrol Group: 1Q19 review - strong quarter, 13% EBITDA beat POSITIVE • JSW: 1Q19 financial results - above consensus on better cost performance POSITIVE • 11 bit studios: 1Q19 results in line with our expectations, below the market consensus NEUTRAL • Energa: 1Q19 preliminary results - 12% EBITDA miss, due to weak sales resul...

Fani Tzioukalia ...
  • Lukasz Wachelko, CFA

OPAP: The odds are good (BUY - transfer of coverage)

We transfer coverage of OPAP, reiterating our positive view on the stock and setting our 12M price target (PT) at EUR 12.2/share (from EUR 12.0), based on the :1) stable macro environment, reflected in both revenues and the risk free rate; 2) improved profitability, attributed to tight cost control and the completion of the IT investment cycle; and 3) successful completion of the VLT rollout plan this year. The company continues to operate a dynamic model, retaining strong free cash flow generation and a high dividend profile for its shareholders (6.3% in 2019E, excluding extraordinary dividen...

OPAP SA. with less fundamental stars is reduced to Neutral

OPAP SA. (GR), a company active in the Gambling industry, loses a star(s) at the fundamental level and sees its general evaluation downgraded. The independent financial analyst theScreener just removed a fundamental star(s) for a 2 over 4-star rating. As such, market behaviour remains unchanged and is evaluated as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the loss of a star(s) merits downgrade to the general evaluation of the title, which passes to Neutral. As of the analysis date May 10, 2019, the closing price was EUR 8.92 and its expected value was estimated at EUR 9.22.

Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Turkish ISE30 plummets in March

EME Equity Market – March 2019 Market performance – Turkish ISE index down 13.9% in March. In March, the MSCI EME remained flat, following February’s 1.6% mom contraction. Bucharest’s BET index was the best performer in March, +4.2% mom; followed by the MOEX index (2.1% mom); the ASE index (+2.0% mom); and Budapest’s BUX (+1.5% mom). In negative territory, the worst performer was the Turkish ISE30, -13.9% mom; while the WIG20 and the Czech PX lost 0.9% mom and 0.5% mom, respectively.

Stamatios Draziotis CFA

OPAP | The game is shifting – Buy

In our new note we stress that 2018 marked the start of a growth era for OPAP as cyclical momentum accelerated and cost savings started to filter-through. We contend that the earnings downgrade cycle has ended and suggest that OPAP is poised to deliver double-digit organic profit growth in 2019e as well, by virtue of product improvements, rising VLT contribution and further savings. Along with the consolidation of Stoiximan for 6 months, we expect OPAP’s adj. EBITDA to shape near €429m in 2019e, +21% yoy. Given the inherently cash-generative characteristics of the business model and the limi...

Fani Tzioukalia ...
  • Lukasz Wachelko, CFA

OPAP: The odds are good (BUY - transfer of coverage)

We transfer coverage of OPAP, reiterating our positive view on the stock and setting our 12M price target (PT) at EUR 12.2/share (from EUR 12.0), based on the :1) stable macro environment, reflected in both revenues and the risk free rate; 2) improved profitability, attributed to tight cost control and the completion of the IT investment cycle; and 3) successful completion of the VLT rollout plan this year. The company continues to operate a dynamic model, retaining strong free cash flow generation and a high dividend profile for its shareholders (6.3% in 2019E, excluding extraordinary dividen...

Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Turkish ISE30 plummets in March

EME Equity Market – March 2019 Market performance – Turkish ISE index down 13.9% in March. In March, the MSCI EME remained flat, following February’s 1.6% mom contraction. Bucharest’s BET index was the best performer in March, +4.2% mom; followed by the MOEX index (2.1% mom); the ASE index (+2.0% mom); and Budapest’s BUX (+1.5% mom). In negative territory, the worst performer was the Turkish ISE30, -13.9% mom; while the WIG20 and the Czech PX lost 0.9% mom and 0.5% mom, respectively.

Stamatios Draziotis CFA

OPAP | The game is shifting – Buy

In our new note we stress that 2018 marked the start of a growth era for OPAP as cyclical momentum accelerated and cost savings started to filter-through. We contend that the earnings downgrade cycle has ended and suggest that OPAP is poised to deliver double-digit organic profit growth in 2019e as well, by virtue of product improvements, rising VLT contribution and further savings. Along with the consolidation of Stoiximan for 6 months, we expect OPAP’s adj. EBITDA to shape near €429m in 2019e, +21% yoy. Given the inherently cash-generative characteristics of the business model and the limi...

OPAP - A record quarter; continued high dividends

OPAP’s FY18 results were in line with our forecasts, with gross gaming revenue (GGR) growth of 6.3% to €1.55bn and a 22.9% EBITDA margin. The recently installed video lottery terminals (VLTs) contributed €208.7m to GGR (vs €57.6m in FY17) and new Kino features led to a strong Q418 within the core Lottery division. OPAP’s investment phase is nearing completion, cost containment is in place and the business model is highly cash generative. The €0.70 FY18 dividend was over 100% of free cash flow and notably higher than our 90% estimate. This was an encouraging set of results and our core OPAP for...

Dimitris Birbos

OPAP - 4Q18 results preview: A strong quarter due to higher GGR from Numerics and VLTs increased contribution

1 director bought

A director at Opap Sa bought 3,000 shares at 9.000EUR and the significance rating of the trade was 53/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules. The names of board member...

Research Team

Focus: transferring coverage of OPAP with a BUY and a new EUR 12.2 PT; keeping our BUY on Mytilineos, with lower EUR 12.5 PT; Polish retail sector – retail tax saga – season 2; National Bank – feedback from investor day

HEADLINES: • OPAP: the odds are good (BUY - transfer of coverage) • Mytilineos: plant(ing) the seed (stays BUY) • Polish retail sector: retail tax saga - season 2 • National Bank: feedback from investor day • Rostelecom: recommends RUB 2.5 DPS from 2018 NI NEUTRAL • Petrol Group: 1Q19 review - strong quarter, 13% EBITDA beat POSITIVE • JSW: 1Q19 financial results - above consensus on better cost performance POSITIVE • 11 bit studios: 1Q19 results in line with our expectations, below the market consensus NEUTRAL • Energa: 1Q19 preliminary results - 12% EBITDA miss, due to weak sales resul...

Research Team

Focus: Mytilineos’ FY18 – solid underlying trends, promising 2019E outlook; National Bank’s 4Q18 results in line, positive frontloading of NPE targets; Alpha Bank’s 4Q18 results – additional provisions in 4Q, with upsized NPE targets

HEADLINES: • Mytilineos: FY18 - solid underlying trends, promising 2019E outlook • National Bank: 4Q18 results in line, positive frontloading of NPE targets • Alpha Bank: 4Q18 results - additional provisions in 4Q, with upsized NPE targets • Aegean Airlines: 2018 results - lower costs offset weaker number of passengers • S Immo: proposes EUR 0.70 DPS, far above our EUR 0.50 estimate POSITIVE • Norilsk Nickel: starts development of South Cluster/Talnakh expansion projects POSITIVE • PKO BP: management board to recommend DPS of PLN 1.33 from 2018 net profit NEUTRAL • PZU: motor insurance fa...

Research Team

Focus: AmRest – Finaccess buying out funders at a 26% premium, no tender call for minorities; CA Immo’s FY18 results – strong performance, FFO reaches EUR 118.5m; OPAP’s 4Q18 – strong EBITDA and DPS growth; 11 bit studios’ 4Q18 results

HEADLINES: • AmRest: Finaccess buying out funders at a 26% premium; no tender call for minorities POSITIVE • CA Immo: FY18 results - strong performance, FFO reaches EUR 118.5m POSITIVE • OPAP: 4Q18 - strong EBITDA and DPS growth • 11 bit studios: 4Q18 results in line with estimates, beat vs. consensus NEUTRAL • Kety: 1Q19 prelims - solid top-line growth, but profitability erodes amid higher costs NEGATIVE • Lenta: potential takeover by Severstal's owner POSITIVE • Tatneft: 4Q18E results expectations - focusing on costs, FCF and dividends (due out tomorrow) • Short News (KRU, PKP, PZU)

Research Team

Focus: Romanian politics – revised ordinance published by the government; Ciech’s 4Q18 EBITDA misses consensus by 4%, bottom line in negative territory; CD Projekt – 4Q18 beat on net income on R&D tax relief; Medicalgorithmics’ 4Q18 results

HEADLINES: • Romanian politics: revised ordinance published by the government POSITIVE • Ciech: 4Q18 EBITDA misses consensus by 4%, bottom line in negative territory NEGATIVE • CD Projekt: 4Q18 beat on net income on R&D tax relief NEUTRAL • Medicalgorithmics: 4Q18 results not good, but better than expected on higher revenue NEUTRAL • Hungary macro: Hungary begins monetary tightening • Nostrum Oil & Gas: 4Q18 results - analyst breakfast and conference call takeaways • Wirtualna Polska: key takeaways from 4Q18 earnings call POSITIVE • Kofola: 4Q18 results call highlights NEUTRAL • Eurocash: sa...

Research Team

Focus: Romanian politics – rumoured changes to the bank tax; KGHM’s 4Q18 financial results – close to consensus on EBITDA, but large increase in FCF; JSW’s 4Q18 financial results – more cost inflation qoq; Dino’s 4Q18 – strong, as expected

HEADLINES: • Romanian politics: rumoured changes to the bank tax POSITIVE • KGHM: 4Q18 financial results - close to consensus on EBITDA, but large increase in FCF POSITIVE • JSW: 4Q18 financial results - more cost inflation qoq NEGATIVE • Dino: 4Q18 - strong, as expected • S Immo: preliminary 2018 figures beat our forecasts on every line POSITIVE • PKP Cargo: 4Q18 preliminary EBITDA 9% above consensus POSITIVE • OMV Petrom: supervisory board approves dividend proposal of RON 0.027 • MOL: proposes total dividend of HUF 142.5/share • Rostelecom: to use treasury shares in Tele2 acquisition; R...

OPAP SA. with less fundamental stars is reduced to Neutral

OPAP SA. (GR), a company active in the Gambling industry, loses a star(s) at the fundamental level and sees its general evaluation downgraded. The independent financial analyst theScreener just removed a fundamental star(s) for a 2 over 4-star rating. As such, market behaviour remains unchanged and is evaluated as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the loss of a star(s) merits downgrade to the general evaluation of the title, which passes to Neutral. As of the analysis date May 10, 2019, the closing price was EUR 8.92 and its expected value was estimated at EUR 9.22.

Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report

Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind each recommendation and reflect the fundamental and price data as of the last trading day of the week...

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