Coca-Cola HBC AG

Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Co. produces, sells and distributes an extensive portfolio of non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages. Co.'s business is engaged in producing, selling and distributing non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages under bottlers' agreements with The Coca-Cola Company. In some Territories, Co. also produces, sells, distributes and markets its own brands of juice and Water beverages. In addition, Co. bottles and distributes beer in Bulgaria and Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia and Co. distributes a selected number of third party premium spirit brands in certain central and eastern European operations.
  • TickerCCH
  • ISINCH0198251305
  • ExchangeLondon Stock Exchange
  • SectorBeverages
  • CountrySwitzerland

Analysts

Research Team

Focus: Polish utilities – Treasure Island (ENA and PGE stay BUY, TPE upgraded to BUY, ENG downgraded to HOLD, LWB stays HOLD); Komercni Banka may be hit by contribution to the National Development Fund

HEADLINES: • Polish utilities: Treasure Island (ENA and PGE stay BUY, TPE upgraded to BUY, ENG downgraded to HOLD, LWB stays HOLD) • Komercni Banka: may be hit by contribution to the National Development Fund NEGATIVE • CEZ: must return CZK 1.1bn plus interest to Czech rail operator NEGATIVE • Santander Bank Polska: CFO says OS-II buffer hike has no impact on dividend policy NEUTRAL • Coca-Cola HBC: EUR 88m acquisition of premium Italian water brand NEUTRAL • Ciech: over 50% of Romanian plant employees agree to voluntary redundancy NEUTRAL • Short News (KTY)

Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Soft performance across markets and sectors in August

EME Equity Market – August 2019 Market performance – pressure on all markets, only the BET flattish. The MSCI EME contracted by 4.9% mom in August, while the ASE index fell by 3.5% and Moscow’s index dropped by 3.8%. Bucharest’s BET index was the only one to rise, if only marginally, by 0.4% mom. The worst performer was Turkey’s ISE30, losing 10.8% mom, while the WIG20 index was down 8.3% mom, the BUX index dropped by 4.1% mom, and Prague’s PX index fell by 2.8% mom.

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Int'l Insights: Bullish Developed Markets Stocks

Favor EAFE over EM The U.S. dollar remains elevated and as long as this remains the case we believe developed international equities (EAFE) will continue to outperform relative to emerging markets (MSCI EM)... see charts below. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within developed international: • Australia. Australia's All Ordinaries index exhibits bullish price and RS trends, a rarity when it comes to global markets considering most country-specific indexes display neutral or negative price trends. We highlight several Australian names, and would use recent broad market weak...

Coca-Cola HBC AG

With a more favourable environment, COCA COLA HBC AG improves to Slightly Positive

COCA COLA HBC AG (GB), a company active in the Soft Drinks industry, is favoured by a more supportive environment. The independent financial analyst theScreener has confirmed the fundamental rating of the title, which shows 3 out of 4 stars, as well as its unchanged, moderately risky market behaviour. The title leverages a more favourable environment and raises its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date August 9, 2019, the closing price was GBp 2,734.00 and its potential was estimated at GBp 3,115.05.

Coca-Cola HBC AG: Update to credit analysis

CCH is strongly positioned in the Baa1 rating category but upgrade constrained by potential for material M&A and increased shareholder distributions

Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Soft performance across markets and sectors in August

EME Equity Market – August 2019 Market performance – pressure on all markets, only the BET flattish. The MSCI EME contracted by 4.9% mom in August, while the ASE index fell by 3.5% and Moscow’s index dropped by 3.8%. Bucharest’s BET index was the only one to rise, if only marginally, by 0.4% mom. The worst performer was Turkey’s ISE30, losing 10.8% mom, while the WIG20 index was down 8.3% mom, the BUX index dropped by 4.1% mom, and Prague’s PX index fell by 2.8% mom.

Natalia Svyrou-Svyriadi

COCA COLA HBC AG - 1H19 Results Preview: Cool weather to weigh on volumes in the quarter, with 1H19 bucked by revenue growth management initiatives

Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Strong month for telecoms, up 11.5% overall in June

EME Equity Market – June 2019 Market performance – ISE30 index the best performer in June, gaining 6.7% in LCU. Other markets were generally stronger in June than in May, with the MSCI EME gaining 6.3% mom in local currency (vs. 0.9% mom in May). Turkey’s ISE30 index gained 6.7% mom, while the ASE increased by 4.6% mom. Bucharest’s BET and Moscow’s MOEX indices gained 3.8% mom each in June, while the Polish WIG20 increased by 3.9% mom. On the other hand, the Czech Republic PX fell 0.2% mom, while Hungary’s BUX dropped 1.5% mom. (All in local currencies.)

Fani Tzioukalia ...
  • Gabriela Burdach
  • Jakub Mician
  • Lukasz Wachelko, CFA
  • Stefan Lungu, CFA

CEE Consumers: Sometimes it’s good to be behind the curve (coverage universe update)

While the retail Armageddon is accelerating in the US and is becoming a more visible phenomena in WE, our markets appear to still be in a growth mode and thus very far behind the global curve. The Turkish and Russian markets are being driven by secular development; Poland and Greece are benefiting from cyclical upsurges; and we see both these factors as present in Romanian market. On top of this, we also see the growth of Polish retailers being boosted by a successful transformation into the omnichannel model. Overall, we expect our CEE retail universe to grow at median 2018-20E CAGRs in sales...

Research Team

The Rear-View Mirror – EME markets: Another strong month for ASE index, up 7.4% mom

EME Equity Market – May 2019 Market performance – ASE index the best performer, up 7.4% mom in May. In May, the MSCI EME improved by 0.9% mom. The ASE index rose by 7.4% in May, following a mom rise of 7.2% in April; while Moscow’s index gained 4.1%; and Bucharest’s BET index was up 0.6% mom. On the other hand, the worst performer was Turkey’s ISE30, down 4.8% mom; while the WIG20 index saw mom losses of 4.1%; the BUX index fell 3.8% in May; and Prague’s PX index dropped 2.3% mom.

1 director sold

A director at Coca-Cola Hellenic Bottling Company Ag sold 12,950 shares at 2,620p and the significance rating of the trade was 84/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showing Close periods where trading activity is restricted under listing rules....

Research Team

Focus: Polish utilities – Treasure Island (ENA and PGE stay BUY, TPE upgraded to BUY, ENG downgraded to HOLD, LWB stays HOLD); Komercni Banka may be hit by contribution to the National Development Fund

HEADLINES: • Polish utilities: Treasure Island (ENA and PGE stay BUY, TPE upgraded to BUY, ENG downgraded to HOLD, LWB stays HOLD) • Komercni Banka: may be hit by contribution to the National Development Fund NEGATIVE • CEZ: must return CZK 1.1bn plus interest to Czech rail operator NEGATIVE • Santander Bank Polska: CFO says OS-II buffer hike has no impact on dividend policy NEUTRAL • Coca-Cola HBC: EUR 88m acquisition of premium Italian water brand NEUTRAL • Ciech: over 50% of Romanian plant employees agree to voluntary redundancy NEUTRAL • Short News (KTY)

Research Team

Focus: Turkey macro – important update; Europe macro – noise, not action, more downside growth risks; Ciech starts preparations for production halt at Romanian plant; OTP Bank – solid set of 2Q19 results, largely in line with our forecasts

HEADLINES: • Turkey macro: important update • Europe macro: noise, not action; more downside growth risks • Ciech: starts preparations for production halt at Romanian plant NEGATIVE • OTP Bank: solid set of 2Q19 results, largely in line with our forecasts • Isbank: 2Q19 highlights NEGATIVE • MLP Care: 2Q19 adjusted EBITDA misses by 8% and a deeper net loss NEGATIVE • SOK Marketler Ticaret: 2Q19 above expectations POSITIVE • Erdemir: 2Q19 financial results - in line with our forecasts, but FCF lower qoq NEUTRAL • Petkim: 2Q19 results - EBITDA in line with expectations • Anadolu Efes: 2Q19 ...

Research Team

Focus: Polish telecoms – price hikes priced in already (keeping our HOLD on CPS, and downgrading OPL to HOLD and PLY to SELL); Raiffeisen Int. – 2Q19 – beat vs. expectations on mix of non-existent LLPs & pre-provision profit

HEADLINES: • Polish telecoms: price hikes priced in already (CPS stays HOLD, OPL downgraded to HOLD, PLY downgraded to SELL) • Raiffeisen Int.: 2Q19 - beat vs. expectations on mix of non-existent LLPs & pre-provision profit POSITIVE • Graphisoft Park: 2Q19 - steady as she goes POSITIVE • Magyar Telekom: 2Q19 - decent quarter, EBITDA (ex.IFRS 16 impact) up 2.4% yoy, 6% above our forecast POSITIVE • Tupras: 2Q19 results, weak EBITDA, strong net income • Anadolu Efes: 2Q19 results - stronger than expected, international volume growth guidance hiked POSITIVE • Ulker: 2Q19 results - 10% beat on EB...

Research Team

WOOD Morning (7 August)

HEADLINES: • Bizim Toptan: 2Q results - stronger than our expectations on 200bps gross margin improvement POSITIVE • BIM: 2Q19 above expectations POSITIVE • Migros: 2Q19 results - 8% EBITDA beat vs. our expectations POSITIVE • Bank Pekao: solid, but neutral 2Q19 results, valuation attractive NEUTRAL • Enerjisa Enerji: 2Q19 review - strong results, operational earnings in line NEUTRAL • Aselsan: 2Q19 results - slight miss NEUTRAL • Richter: no positive triggers from 2Q19 conference call NEUTRAL • Polyus: 1H19 results - strong cost performance at Natalka and a 2.3% interim dividend • Alior Ba...

Research Team

Focus: PKN Orlen’s 2Q19 results, downstream EBITDA outperformed; Severstal recommends RUB 26.72/share dividend – a 2.5% yield on the GDRs; Titan Cement – successful completion of tender offer from TCI

HEADLINES: • PKN Orlen: 2Q19 results, downstream EBITDA outperformed POSITIVE • Severstal: recommends RUB 26.72/share dividend - a 2.5% yield on the GDRs NEUTRAL • Titan Cement: successful completion of tender offer from TCI • Coca-Cola HBC: to launch Costa Coffee in 10 markets in 2020E NEUTRAL • CME: 2Q19E preview - 11% yoy OIBDA growth expected (due on 23 July) • Magyar Telekom: 2Q19E preview - 3% EBITDA (ex. IFRS 16) drop expected (due on 7 August) • Cyfrowy Polsat: 2Q19E preview - 1% EBITDA (ex.IFRS 16) growth yoy expected (due on 29 August) • Ciech: 2Q19E preview (due on 10 September)

Coca-Cola HBC AG

With a more favourable environment, COCA COLA HBC AG improves to Slightly Positive

COCA COLA HBC AG (GB), a company active in the Soft Drinks industry, is favoured by a more supportive environment. The independent financial analyst theScreener has confirmed the fundamental rating of the title, which shows 3 out of 4 stars, as well as its unchanged, moderately risky market behaviour. The title leverages a more favourable environment and raises its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date August 9, 2019, the closing price was GBp 2,734.00 and its potential was estimated at GBp 3,115.05.

Coca-Cola HBC AG

Coca-Cola HBC AG

Coca-Cola HBC AG

Stamatios Draziotis CFA

G.RE.CO. | Greek consumer – Taking stock of Q1’19 trends

In this G.RE.CO. edition we provide an overview of the trading performance of the Greek consumer-related stocks under our coverage, while also laying out our forecasts for the upcoming results of Aegean (3rd June), Sarantis (30th May) and OPAP (5th June). In general Q1 seems to have been somewhat more subdued than its adjacent Q4’18 due to a confluence of factors, including Easter timing. In our view, weighing on consumer spending might have also been consumers’ attempt to rebuild their saving ratios following years of tapping into their savings. That being said, leading indicators are at mult...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Int'l Insights: Bullish Developed Markets Stocks

Favor EAFE over EM The U.S. dollar remains elevated and as long as this remains the case we believe developed international equities (EAFE) will continue to outperform relative to emerging markets (MSCI EM)... see charts below. Below we highlight attractive and actionable themes within developed international: • Australia. Australia's All Ordinaries index exhibits bullish price and RS trends, a rarity when it comes to global markets considering most country-specific indexes display neutral or negative price trends. We highlight several Australian names, and would use recent broad market weak...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Another test of support Heightened trade tensions have caused global equities to move from resistance to support in a matter of days. Additional consolidation - i.e., no breakdowns - on the broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, EAFE, and EM) remains the most likely scenario. At the same time, new cracks are beginning to show and as a result we believe global equities are vulnerable to a breakdown. • New cracks emerging. Breakdowns in crude oil and new lows for the STOXX 600 Bank supersector are two recent developments which have dampened our overall outlook... see charts below. • Tes...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

USD weakness a tailwind for int'l markets With markets showing signs of weakening at logical resistance as outlined in last week's Int'l Compass - we recommend being selective in new purchases. At the same time we are seeing a number of indicators that are giving signals conducive to higher equity prices, meaning global equities may be gearing up for an eventual breakout topside resistance. Below we highlight some attractive and actionable themes along with indicators that support our overall constructive outlook. • USD (DXY) breaking down; Euro, CAD breaking out. Throughout all of 2019 we h...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Int'l Macro Vision: Global Equity Strategy

Int'l Equity Strategy Global equities staged an impressive rally over the first four months of 2019. The nearly unabated advance allowed the broad major indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) to break topside critical 14-month downtrends which began in January 2018. Heading into May, YTD uptrends were ubiquitous and market participants were generally of the belief that a US-China trade deal was a foregone conclusion. Then came Trump's May 5th tweets claiming China was attempting to renegotiate, and that tariffs would increase from 10% to 25%. The tariff escalation contributed to uptrend br...

Dave Nicoski ...
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Testing 200-day MA support Generally speaking most major indexes are currently trading at the lower end of their May trading ranges. Barring improving headlines regarding tariffs & trade or comments from the Fed suggesting a potential rate cut on the horizon - both of which would result in a weaker U.S. dollar - we believe global markets are vulnerable to further weakness. With global markets in purgatory, we are watching for support at the all-important 200-day moving averages on the S&P 500, MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-U.S., and EAFE indexes. Breakdowns below these support levels would be problemati...

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