WFD Unibail-Rodamco

Unibail Rodamco SE is a France-based commercial property investment company operating in the commercial real estate industry. The Company is engaged in the development, construction, and management of real estate in Europe. Its assets portfolio is divided into three main business segments: Shopping Centers, which include shopping centers in France, Spain, the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, Poland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and Austria; Offices, comprising a number of business premises, warehouses and workshops located mainly in the Paris central business district and La Defense; and Convention and Exhibition complexes in Paris through two companies, Viparis and Comexposium, which are jointly owned by the Company and the Paris Chamber of Commerce and Industry (CCIP). Viparis manages a portfolio of venues in Paris, while Comexposium operates as an event organizer in France.
  • TickerA2JH5S
  • ISINFR0000124711
  • SectorReal Estate Investment Trusts
  • CountryNetherlands

Analysts

ING
Research Department

Benelux Morning Notes

AMG: Feedback from conference call. Ascencio: Lower interest will drive dividend up. Bekaert: Outlook still challenging, organizational reshuffle a clear positive. D'Ieteren: In-line results, strong Belron FCF, strong guidance. IMCD: A bit light at year end but overall growth remains impressive. Proximus: Results and guidance slightly lower. Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield: Sells Jumbo at 5%. VGP: Delivers & hikes dividends by 16%.

ING
Jaap Kuin ...
  • Pieter Runneboom

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield/Resetting expectations lower/HOLD (previously: Buy)

Was Westfield worth it? We believe new URW guidance is not fully understood by investors and see a 5-year EPS CAGR of 0-2% with offsetting “Westfield upside” from a stronger portfolio long dated (>3 years). Investors will discount the long term heavily due to strong negative momentum in the retail landscape. Focus will keep increasing on capex requirements and expanding yields. We model slower rent growth, but no declines, as URW remains the best-in-class operator (LFL rent growth to sub 2% from 4%) and also higher retail yields (5.2% in 2022F from 4.3%). With guidance reset, upside triggers a...

Benoît Faure-Jarrosson ...
  • Bruno Duclos
  • Vladimir Minot

INVEST SECURITIES - UNIBAIL-RODAMCO : Précisions sur les guidances 2019e et 2019e-2023e - ACHAT, OC 185€

ING
Research Department

Benelux Morning Notes

AEGON: Leverage ratio a negative surprise, business plan in line with expectations. Arcadis: One legacy gone, one remains. DSM: Happy Valentine Buyback. KBC: Results of good quality, small miss on DPS but policy in line with commitment. NN Group: The long awaited share buyback (€0.5bn) has arrived. Ordina: Solid 4Q18 results with some small positives. SBM Offshore: FY18 review - dividend and 3rd hull say a lot. Telenet Group: Q4 FCF and KPIs below, 2019 guidance a bit below. Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield: Was Westfield Worth It? Vastned: In the doldrums.

ING
Jaap Kuin

Real Estate Strategy/Segment vs style: time for value?

We investigate a presumed October 2018 ‘style' rotation and try to find factors driving performance over the last year, potentially giving direction for 2019. Overlaying segment performance (eg, German resi vs offices vs retail) and style factors ‘quality' (initial yield), ‘growth' (2016-2019F EPS CAGR), ‘value' (low PER), we find that value consistently underperformed from February to August, after which quality underperformed and high yielding assets outperformed from July. Retail remains a key driver within underperformers, with 11 out of the 12 worst performers (58 stocks sample). Leverage...

ING
Research Department

Benelux Morning Notes

AMG: Feedback from conference call. Ascencio: Lower interest will drive dividend up. Bekaert: Outlook still challenging, organizational reshuffle a clear positive. D'Ieteren: In-line results, strong Belron FCF, strong guidance. IMCD: A bit light at year end but overall growth remains impressive. Proximus: Results and guidance slightly lower. Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield: Sells Jumbo at 5%. VGP: Delivers & hikes dividends by 16%.

ING
Jaap Kuin ...
  • Pieter Runneboom

Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield/Resetting expectations lower/HOLD (previously: Buy)

Was Westfield worth it? We believe new URW guidance is not fully understood by investors and see a 5-year EPS CAGR of 0-2% with offsetting “Westfield upside” from a stronger portfolio long dated (>3 years). Investors will discount the long term heavily due to strong negative momentum in the retail landscape. Focus will keep increasing on capex requirements and expanding yields. We model slower rent growth, but no declines, as URW remains the best-in-class operator (LFL rent growth to sub 2% from 4%) and also higher retail yields (5.2% in 2022F from 4.3%). With guidance reset, upside triggers a...

Benoît Faure-Jarrosson ...
  • Bruno Duclos
  • Vladimir Minot

INVEST SECURITIES - UNIBAIL-RODAMCO : Précisions sur les guidances 2019e et 2019e-2023e - ACHAT, OC 185€

ING
Research Department

Benelux Morning Notes

AEGON: Leverage ratio a negative surprise, business plan in line with expectations. Arcadis: One legacy gone, one remains. DSM: Happy Valentine Buyback. KBC: Results of good quality, small miss on DPS but policy in line with commitment. NN Group: The long awaited share buyback (€0.5bn) has arrived. Ordina: Solid 4Q18 results with some small positives. SBM Offshore: FY18 review - dividend and 3rd hull say a lot. Telenet Group: Q4 FCF and KPIs below, 2019 guidance a bit below. Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield: Was Westfield Worth It? Vastned: In the doldrums.

ING
Jaap Kuin

Real Estate Strategy/Segment vs style: time for value?

We investigate a presumed October 2018 ‘style' rotation and try to find factors driving performance over the last year, potentially giving direction for 2019. Overlaying segment performance (eg, German resi vs offices vs retail) and style factors ‘quality' (initial yield), ‘growth' (2016-2019F EPS CAGR), ‘value' (low PER), we find that value consistently underperformed from February to August, after which quality underperformed and high yielding assets outperformed from July. Retail remains a key driver within underperformers, with 11 out of the 12 worst performers (58 stocks sample). Leverage...

For UNIBAIL-RODAMCO, the environment deterioration entails a downgrade to Neutral

UNIBAIL-RODAMCO (FR), a company active in the Real Estate Investment Trusts industry, now shows a lower overall rating. The independent financial analyst theScreener just confirmed the fundamental rating of 2 stars out of 4, as well as the stock market behaviour of the title as moderately risky. However, environmental deterioration penalises the general evaluation, which is downgraded to Neutral. As of the analysis date May 18, 2018, the closing price was EUR 194.25 and its expected value was estimated at EUR 193.43.

Ford Equity International Rating and Forecast Report

Ford Equity International Research Reports cover 60 countries with over 30,000 stocks traded on international exchanges. A proprietary quantitative system compares each company to its peers on proven measures of business value, growth characteristics, and investor behavior. Ford's three recommendation ratings buy, hold and sell, represent each stock’s return potential relative to its own country market.. The rating reports which are generated each week, include the fundamental details behind each recommendation and reflect the fundamental and price data as of the last trading day of the week...

MarketLine Department

Unibail-Rodamco SE - Strategy, SWOT and Corporate Finance Report

Synopsis Unibail-Rodamco SE - Strategy, SWOT and Corporate Finance Report, is a source of comprehensive company data and information. The report covers the company's structure, operation, SWOT analysis, product and service offerings and corporate actions, providing a 360˚ view of the company. Summary - Detailed information on Unibail-Rodamco SE required for business and competitor intelligence needs - A study of the major internal and external factors affecting Unibail-Rodamco SE in the form of a SWOT analysis - An in-depth view of the business model of Unibail-Rodamco SE including a breakd...

Jehanne Leroy

Proxy Report - 17/05/2018

ITEMS 9 to 14: The main object of this AGM is the Acquisition of Westfield by Unibail-Rodamco. This operation is strategically consistent and financially acceptable for Unibail’s shareholders. Impacts of shareholding and on governance are also acceptable as the shareholding will remain widespread and the Supervisory Board will still have a majority of independent members. ITEMS 25 and 26: However, in the event of completion of the Transaction, the remuneration policy of Management Board members will be modified. It will mainly integrate increases of the fixed remuneration (+25% for the Chairm...

Jehanne Leroy

Proxy Report - 17/05/2018

Le principal sujet de cette assemblée est l'acquisition par Unibail-Rodamco de la société américaine Westfield (résolutions 9 à 14). L’opération proposée est stratégiquement cohérente et financièrement acceptable pour les actionnaires d'Unibail-Rodamco. Les impacts de cette opération sur l'actionnariat et la gouvernance sont eux aussi acceptables puisque l’actionnariat restera plutôt diversifié et le conseil de surveillance du nouveau groupe sera toujours majoritairement indépendant. Cependant, en cas de réalisation de l'opération, la politique de rémunération des membres du Directoire pour 2...

Jehanne Leroy

Etude de l'AG du 25/04/2017

Items 5 to 9 : We congratulate Unibail-Rodamco on producing a very clear and exhaustive remuneration report which leads us to approve all “Say on Pay” and “Sapin 2” resolutions.Furthermore, the company will hereafter stop using “retesting” practices for performance measurement for allocating Executives bonuses.The company adopted the « one share-one vote » principle in its by-laws. We congratulate the company on promoting shareholder equality. We also noted that the company does not authorize any capital issuance during takeovers, which is in line with best practices. Unibail-Rodamco has an ex...

Jehanne Leroy

Etude de l'AG du 25/04/2017

La société Unibail-Rodamco se démarque par une excellente pratique en termes de gouvernance. Ainsi nous soulignerons, par exemple, que la société à décidé le maintien du principe « Une action-Une voix », qui est défendu par Proxinvest. La politique de rémunération d’Unibail-Rodamco est également remarquable par sa qualité et sa transparence, qui entraînent, pour cette année encore, un avis favorable de Proxinvest sur l’ensemble des résolutions « Say on Pay » ainsi que sur les résolutions dites « Sapin 2 », concernant les politiques de rémunération 2017.Enfin, la société indique, qu'à compter d...

Valérie GASTALDY

Analyse moyen terme - UNIBAIL-RODAMCO : Le support majeur est enfoncé.

Les prix sont dans une phase de consolidation latérale sans élement directionnel net.Arguments :- Le support majeur est enfoncé.- Le support ascendant est atteint.- La moyenne mobile sert de résistance.- Les prix évoluent dans un rectangle.

Valérie GASTALDY

Medium term view - UNIBAIL-RODAMCO : The major support has been breached.

Prices are in a sideways range, there is no specific direction.Arguments :- The major support has been breached.- The ascending support has been reached.- The moving average is capping prices.- Prices are evolving within a rectangle.

Matthieu DRIOL

Short term view - UNIBAIL-RODAMCO : Pull-back

The trend is momentarily interrupted by a consolidation on a shorter time horizon but prices remain above the invalidation level at €185.700. It can resume at anytime towards the target at €197.660.Arguments :- Prices are pulling back to the major support level (previously a resistance). The rise will resume afterwards.- The moving average is supporting prices.- The trend is momentarily interrupted by a flag, but the rise will resume soon.

Matthieu DRIOL

Analyse court terme - UNIBAIL-RODAMCO : Pull-back

La tendance est momentanément interrompue par une correction sur l'horizon de temps inférieur, mais les prix restent au-dessus du seuil d'invalidation à 185,700 €. Elle peut donc reprendre à tout moment vers l'objectif à 197,660 €.Arguments :- Les cours font un pull-back sur le support majeur (ancienne résistance), la hausse reprendra ensuite.- La moyenne mobile sert de support.- Un flag est en formation.

Matthieu DRIOL

Analyse court terme - UNIBAIL-RODAMCO : Le support majeur est atteint, il cause le rebond.

Le précédent sommet vient d'être franchi, ceci confirme la tendance haussière. Le prochain objectif est à 203,34 €. Le niveau d'invalidation est sous 191,20 €.Arguments :- Le support majeur est atteint, il cause le rebond.- Les prix dépassent la moyenne mobile, c'est un signal de force.

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